Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) welterweights Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves will go to war this Saturday (Jan. 31, 2015) at UFC 183 inside the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
At just 25 years old, Mein is already one of the most experienced fighters in the UFC. In addition, he's a phenomenally talented boxer and will look to showcase those skills at the expense of his opponent.
Since falling to George St. Pierre in 2009, Alves has experienced difficulty building momentum. He's alternated wins and losses in his last six bouts, which have been spread across a four year period. To get his name back into the mix, Alves needs to work over a certain "Young Gun."
Let's take a look at the keys to victory for both fighters.
Jordan Mein
Record: 29-9
Key Wins: Mike Pyle (UFC Fight Night 49), Dan Miller (UFC 158), Josh Burkman (MMA: The Reckoning)
Key Losses: Matt Brown (UFC on FOX 7), Tyrone Woodley (Strikeforce: Rockhold vs Jardine)
Keys to Victory: Outside of coming out on the wrong end of a wild brawl with Matt Brown, Mein has very much looked the part of a top contender. Utilizing his ruthless boxing and even elbow strikes, Mein has secured an impressive 16 knockout victories.
In this bout, range will be key. If Alves is able to keep Mein at the end of his kicks, the Canadian is in for a rough time. Alternatively, Mein can shake his foe up if he can maintain a boxing range for any extended amount of time.
Therefore, Mein needs to constantly be in his boxing range or too far away for Alves to kick effectively. In short, in-and-out movement must be a very important part of the young veteran's game plan.
Alves generally lands his leg kicks via one of two ways. He either pushes his foe back with punches and then rips into a leg, or the Brazilian drills his opponent's thigh as his foe steps forward with punches.
For the most part, in-and-out movement should be an effective solution to the first method. Additionally, a few key counter punches -- something Mein is more than capable of -- will make Alves rethink this strategy.
in order to avoid the latter method, Mein needs to stay aware and ready to counter whenever he moves forward. If Alves' attempts to kick an incoming Mein are met with either heavy punches or a slick single leg takedown, like the ones Mein used against Hernani Perpetuo, it will nullify that aspect of Alves' game.
Thiago Alves
Record: 20-9
Key Wins: Josh Koscheck (UFC 90), Matt Hughes (UFC 85), Seth Baczynski (UFC on FOX 11)
Key Losses: Rick Story (UFC 130), Martin Kampmann (UFC on FX 2)
Keys to Victory: Alves has been referred to as a Muay Thai wrecking ball a number of times, which is as apt a description as any. Having finished 11 foes with at least one of his eight limbs, Alves is a dangerous opponent for just about anyone.
Alves needs to pressure Mein immediately. Outside of a single painful liver shot, Brown generally had his way with Mein by keeping the Canadian on his back foot from the start of the bout.
That's not to say Alves should completely look to replicate Brown's strategy. Instead of looking to maul his foe in the clinch and batter him on the exit, Alves should attempt to cut off the cage and slam power punches into his opponent.
If Alves connects cleanly just a couple of times, Mein will be much more desperate to circle and avoid uninitiated exchanges. Then, Alves should be able to find his low kicks without much trouble, as Mein will both be moving into them and reacting to Alves' punch feints.
Alves low kicks can eliminate a fighter's movement and explosive ability pretty rapidly. If Alves finds success with his strategy early, he's setting himself up well to secure a finish later in the bout once his foe cannot avoid his barrages.
Bottom Line: This will almost certainly be an entertaining scrap.
Mein still needs a signature win. If the Canadian can enter Alves' realm, striking, and walk away with a decisive win -- or better yet, a finish -- it could be the victory that pushes Mein into contender status. With so many potential top contenders in the welterweight division, the time to distinguish himself is now.
Alves' lack of recent consistency, both in amount of fights and their results, has stalled any upward movement for the Brazilian. However, many fans, as well as the UFC, have fond memories of Alves committing incredible acts of violence. If he can take out a talented fighter like Mein and stay active, Alves can return to his prior position in the division.
For either man, a loss sends him back to the middle of the division. Welterweight is simply too talent-rich to lose key bouts like this, and it would definitely require at least a couple decent victories to return to this position in the division.
At UFC 183, Jordan Mein and Thiago Alves will battle over a position in the top 15. Which striker will earn the victory?