It's okay to root for Alexander Gustafsson, even if you don't like him.
After all, when a movie is really great, most fans want to see a sequel. That's how we ended up with Critters 2: The Main Course. Gustafsson, to date, has been the only person to give UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones a real fight inside the Octagon.
You can argue he was within one round of winning the title.
That's a do-over most fans are pining for, but it won't come without a price. In order to secure a second go-round against "Bones," Gustafsson must survive 25 minutes with a resurgent power striker named Anthony Johnson, who could probably punch a hole through a steel wall.
As expected, the title shot belongs to "Rumble" if he plays Swedish heart breaker in the UFC on FOX 14 main event this Saturday night (Jan. 24, 2015) inside Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.
In the co-main event, Dan Henderson tries to avoid "the talk" from UFC President Dana White, while Gegard Mousasi clings to the tiny shred of relevancy he still has left. "Hendo" has dropped three of four and "The Dreamcatcher" came up lame in the only two fights that meant anything in the middleweight rankings.
That's not all.
Ryan Bader and Phil Davis will prove they are well-rounded MMA fighters and not just collegiate wrestlers with rudimentary stand up. "Darth" could have the advantage if he stays off the mat, as "Mr. Wonderful" has yet to secure a knockout victory in 12 Octagon appearances.
Embrace the grind!
Kicking off the four-fight main card will be the featherweight curtain jerker between Akira Corassani and Sam Sicilia. The former has dropped two straight while the latter is 3-4 under the ZUFFA banner, leading me to believe the only reason they're competing this high up in the line up is because Corassani is from Sweden.
Who wins and who loses? Let's find out...
205 lbs.: Alexander "The Mauler" Gustafsson (16-2) vs. Anthony "Rumble" Johnson (18-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Much has been made about Anthony Johnson's career resurrection since moving up to light heavyweight and rejoining the ranks of ZUFFA and admittedly, he's looked fantastic in the two fights we've seen post-weight gate.
But let's maintain some modicum of perspective.
Johnson is no longer the flat-footed power puncher he once was and credit to the Blackzilians camp for transforming him into a formidable striker. That said, we really haven't seem him in a fair fight, as Phil Davis punches like a T-Rex and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira is 102 years old.
As far as tests are concerned, this is as stiff as they come.
Johnson came in one pound under the 205-pound limit and looked great on the scale, which indicates he's both focused and ready to bang. So too, is Alexander Gustafsson, who continues to deflect questions about a Jon Jones rematch in favor of "Rumble"-speak.
This is not an easy fight.
My concern for "The Mauler," right off the bat, is Johnson's power. The former welterweight has improved his footwork in recent years, but the Swede's is still better. I also believe that size will play a major role here, as Gustafsson uses his considerable reach to shoot and retreat.
Anyone thinking he's going to bury himself in the cage and cover up like Nog did, is in for a surprise.
As we saw against "Bones" -- and countless others -- Gustafsson knows how to stay out of the red zone and when he does get tagged, his beard is sturdy enough to keep his legs underneath him. Same goes for Johnson, who has yet to lose a fight by way of strikes.
That's not going to change here.
While both men are tough to get to the floor, I'm not sure Johnson's new frame is designed to go 25 minutes. Sure, he looked great in three rounds against Davis, but that's because "Mr. Wonderful" didn't make him work. Gustafsson is a much larger, much more dynamic martial artist who will also slow down as the fight wears on, but will rack up umpteen points because he's not relying on the knockout blow.
Johnson will have a great first round and probably give the Swedish fans a fit of anxiety, but Gustafsson will take over in the second half of the fight and find a way to drag "Rumble" to the mat, where he immediately becomes combat ineffective.
A rear-naked choke would not surprise me.
Final prediction: Gustafsson def. Johnson via submission
185 lbs.: Dan "Hendo" Henderson (30-12) vs. Gegard "The Dreamcatcher" Mousasi (35-5-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: I'm a sucker for nostalgia, especially since my first gig in this industry was covering the PRIDE beat for a popular pro wrestling website (back before MMA blogs were a "thing"). But when a fighter is done, he's done, and there's really nothing you can do as a matchmaker to keep that from happening.
And Dan Henderson gets no favors here.
What this fight boils down to is a fighter who relies on the big punch facing a combatant who is notoriously difficult to hit. Gegard Mousasi has struggled in the wrestling department over the years, but I'm not sure it even matters at this point, as Henderson has deteriorated into a one-trick pony.
The sport has evolved, but "Hendo" has not.
In baseball, power pitchers who lose their fastballs can either work on their movement, or get shelled during each and every trip to the mound. Well, Henderson has dropped four of five and considering how close he was to getting finished in the "Shogun" win, he was a pubic hair away from making it five straight.
He's also 44 years old, so he's not exactly the quickest cat in the room.
Mousasi is 15 years younger, but has his own set of problems. His inability to commit to a high-level camp during his peak years cost him dearly, as he failed to develop what are clearly exceptional physical tools both on the ground and in the stand up.
And after every loss it's the same old crap, "I wasn't motivated, blah, blah, blah."
I would expect Henderson to spend most of this fight lumbering around the cage looking for the big shot. He tires quickly -- expected at this age -- and I think Mousasi will go full Machida and play keep away, or at least kickbox his way to the judges' scorecards, on the strength of his superior jab.
Color me crusty, but I have pretty low expectations for this fight.
Final prediction: Mousasi def. Henderson via unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis (13-2) vs. Ryan "Darth" Bader (18-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: I've been hearing a lot of talk about how Anthony Johnson laid the blueprint for overcoming the wrestling game of Phil Davis when in actuality, it was Rashad Evans who created that formula back in 2012. It was no surprise then, to see "Rumble" accomplish the same feat, having considerable mat time with "Suga" at the Blackzilians camp.
Simply put, if you deny Davis the chance to get up close and personal, you can pretty much have your way with him.
That's why "Mr. Wonderful" excels against non-collegiate or lower-level wrestlers, or in the case of Vinny Magalhaes, fighters with striking as putrid as his. When he does get his hands on you, it's like trying to free yourself of the Aliens face huggers.
Just ask Glover Teixeira.
Ryan Bader, however, is not the kind of combatant who got into the fight game and started training wrestling a few weeks each camp, you know, because he had to. "Darth" was -- and is -- a wrestler by trade, and a fairly talented one at that.
Straight-up wrestling match in the gym? Davis all day.
But this is the cage, a place that allows you to punch someone every time they violate your personal space. Bader isn't cramming for the exam the night before and doesn't need to read the wrestling playbook. He knows what's coming and he knows how to defend it.
If he does, this fight belongs to him.
The one thing that keeps Bader from a title fight -- Jon Jones at UFC 128 notwithstanding -- is the durability of his beard. And since I can't imagine a scenario where Davis rocks him or (lol) nails a one-hitter quitter, he's going to be too strong to control, and too dangerous to be sent to the phone booth.
Final prediction: Bader def. Davis via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Akira Corassani (12-5, 1 NC) vs. Sam Sicilia (13-5)
Nostradumbass predicts: Regrettably, there isn't a lot to unpack here. Both Akira Corassani and Sam Sicilia are struggling to find consistency in the featherweight division after unspectacular runs through The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) proving ground.
Not sure how this bout ended up on the main card of FOX.
Corassani has five career losses -- including his last two -- but at least he goes out on his shield. All five defeats have come by way of knockout or technical knockout, which is the end result of throwing hands with reckless abandon. His answer for having no defense?
More offense!
That could be problematic heading into tomorrow night as Sicilia shares his opponent's penchant for slinging leather with little-to-no regard for the consequences that come with it. The difference, is that the Sikjitsu striker is a little more durable in close quarters, so if this devolves into a firefight, I would expect him to be the last man standing.
While we may not get much in the way of a technical showcase, they should at least get the main card off with a bang. I wouldn't be surprised to see both fighters taking their licks, but I have to judge a horse by its record. When Corassani loses, it by way of the intercepting fist.
Final prediction: Sicilia def. Corassani via knockout
There you have it.
To see who is fighting on the "Prelims" portion of the UFC on FOX 14 fight card -- including a full breakdown for each fight -- click here and here. For "Gustafsson vs. Johnson" odds and betting lines, click here.
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.