A shot at gold is up for grabs in Sweden.
Alexander Gustafsson will look to cement his status as No. 1-ranked light heavyweight contender and earn an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) title shot against Jon Jones when he takes on No. 3-ranked Anthony Johnson in their main event bout at UFC on FOX 14 this Saturday (Jan. 24, 2015) at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.
The rest of the card features several fun match ups, including the co-main event middleweight feature that pits former Strikeforce champions Dan Henderson and Gegard Mousasi against each another. Another 205-pound tilt is scheduled for the main card, as Top 10 talents Phil Davis and Ryan Bader throw down in hopes of ascending the division ladder.
UFC on FOX 14 is a very intriguing card on paper, so lets take a gander at the latest betting odds and see if we can pick out a few winners in Sweden.
Here we go:
UFC On FOX 14 Odds For The Under Card:
Albert Tumenov (-140) vs. Nico Musoke (+110)
Sultan Aliev (-130) vs. Kenny Robertson (+100)
Andy Ogle (-135) vs. Makwan Amirkhani (+105)
Nikita Krylov (-135) vs. Stanislav Nedkov (+105)
Mairbek Taisumov (-600) vs. Anthony Christodoulou (+400)
Konstantin Erokhin (-325) vs. Viktor Pesta (+250)
Mirsad Bektic (-550) vs. Paul Redmond (+375)
Chris Beal (-185) vs. Neil Seery (+150)
Thoughts: Right off the bat, I am not very interested in many of these lines because many of these fights are extremely close on paper and could truly go either way. If you are looking for locks, I just don't see anything I would be comfortable with on this under card.
With that being said, a few of the fighters I am intrigued by are favorites Albert Tumenov, Sultan Aliev and underdog Stanislav Nedkov.
Tumenov has been obliterating his competition since his tough Octagon debut split decision loss to Ildemar Alcantara. Following two straight knockouts, "Einstein" has earned his "Prelims" main event slot against Sweden's own Nico Musoke this weekend.
While Musoke has a strong overall game, he simply cannot match Tumenov's striking arsenal on the feet. In 14 career victories, the Russian has knocked out 10 opponents. While Musoke is certainly no slouch on the feet, he has been hit in his MMA career, and against Tumenov you really can't afford to take too many punches.
Unless Tumenov is grounded by Musoke for the majority of the 15-minute affair, I see the Russian taking out the Swede at some point with one of his devastating hooks.
Up next is Sultan Aliev, who makes his UFC debut this weekend against savvy grappler Kenny Robertson. While this is by no means a lock, I do believe Aliev will get the better of Robertson standing, and on the mat as well.
Aliev is a Sambo master, so he is definitely a lot to handle on the ground. While his American counterpart will have the jiu-jitsu advantage, I expect Aliev to stifle Robertson with his heavy ground and pound, ultimately leading to his 11th career (technical) knockout victory.
Finally, I'd like to discuss the returning Bulgarian, Stanislav Nedkov. Returning from a near two-year long layoff due to knee surgery, "Stucky" is set to take on the rangy striker in Nikita Krylov.
This bout is very well-matched, and both men have an opportunity to win if they showcase their strengths. Nedkov has brutal power, but very rarely throws his punches in combinations, as he hopes to land a haymaker and close the show. Considering Krylov's porous striking defense, there is no question the Bulgarian can knock him out, but you have to believe Krylov is wary of his opponent's power.
The Ukrainian prefers to rush in with combinations, often keeping his head too high, utilizing kicks and the clinch very well. With Nedkov showing a major weakness in the clinch against Tom Watson his last time out, Krylov could capitalize and finish off the Bulgarian with knees.
I'll leave the choice up to you, but ultimately it is a hard fight to bet on considering Nedkov's long layoff, and both men's glaring weaknesses on the feet. In my opinion, Krylov wins the fight, but I could absolutely see Nedkov pulling off a knockout as the Ukrainian rushes in.
UFC On FOX 14 Odds For The Main Card:
Alexander Gustafsson (-275) vs. Anthony Johnson (+215)
Gegard Mousasi (-500) vs. Dan Henderson (+350)
Phil Davis (-260) vs. Ryan Bader (+200)
Akira Corassani (-130) vs. Sam Sicilia (+100)
Thoughts: These lines scream "avoid" to me, but there could be some money made with bets on the Akira Corassani vs. Sam Sicilia fight, Ryan Bader and Alexander Gustafsson. Before I delve into some analysis, let me mention that I am picking all four of the favorites to win on Saturday night, but I do believe that both underdogs Sicilia and Bader could pull off victories.
Corassani-Sicilia is a well matched fight between two middle of the pack featherweights. Neither man brings a very impressive overall game to the table, but Sicilia has major power in his hands, while Corassani is the better overall fighter.
The Swede has been knocked out in his last two fights, but against much stiffer competition than he will face in Sicilia. While the American can certainly knock Corassani out, I don't expect the Renzo Gracie product to willingly exchange with Sicilia for long periods of time.
In my opinion, Sicilia will be winging haymakers early, prior to getting tired out and submitted by Corassani late in the first or early on in the second.
The next fight that catches my eye is the light heavyweight tilt between Ryan Bader and Phil Davis. Both men are outstanding wrestlers, so I do expect them to somewhat negate one another in that aspect. Ultimately, if the fight does hit the mat at some point, there is no question Davis holds the decided advantage there.
If Bader can stay on his feet, he won't be picking Davis apart, but he should get the better of "Mr. Wonderful" with his power. Davis is not a terrible striker by any means, but he lacks the stopping power to hurt Bader. In comparison, "Darth" could certainly knock Davis out with any one of his heavy haymakers.
Ultimately, I think Davis picks up the unanimous decision win in a not-so-exciting bout, but I have been wrong before. In terms of betting, I think a small bet on Bader could pay big dividends in case of an upset.
The Dan Henderson vs. Gegard Mousasi bout? Don't bet on it.
Gustafsson vs Johnson? A lot of money is coming in late on "Rumble" to defeat the Swede, but I think the No. 1-ranked light heavyweight is out to prove he is the best in the world this Saturday night en route to a rematch with Jones.
There is no question Johnson could knockout anyone in the division, but can he hit Gustafsson repeatedly without facing the consequences? I doubt it. "The Mauler" will dictate the pace as usual, use his rangy strikes to get in, and probably hurt, Johnson en route to a rear-naked choke in the second round.
Bottom Line: Nothing jumps off the page right away with this card, but I do see money to be made in betting on Corassani, Tumenov, and potentially Nedkov and Bader. Some of the favorites on this card are outlandishly pricey -- for instance Gegard Mousasi -- so if you are feeling lucky enough to bet on Henderson landing the "H-Bomb", then reap your rewards come Saturday night!
Good luck ... and enjoy the fights!