Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) middleweights Gegard Mousasi and Dan Henderson will go to war this Saturday (Jan. 24, 2015) at UFC on FOX 14 inside the Tele2 Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.
Though he may not be quite as dangerous as once advertised, Mousasi has proven himself a top middleweight. Still, his UFC record is fairly pedestrian (2-2), even if those losses did come to the division's elite. In order to regain some momentum, Mousasi needs to get back into the win column here.
At this point, it seems that Dan Henderson's career may truly be winding down. He's lost four of his last five, and the notoriously tough scrapper was finished in his last two losses. Now, "Hendo" looks for another career revitalization by returning to middleweight.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory for each man.
Gegard Mousasi
Record: 35-5-2
Key Wins: Mark Munoz (UFC Fight Night 42), Ovince St. Preux (Strikeforce: Melendez vs Masvidal), Ilir Latifi (UFC on Fuel TV 9)
Key Losses: Ronaldo Souza (UFC Fight Night 50), Lyoto Machida (UFC Fight Night 36)
Keys to Victory: Mousasi is a very talented and experienced fighter. Still just 29 years old, Mousasi has already finished an impressive 30 opponents via either submission or knockout.
Mousasi's impressive number of finishes represents his skills accurately. "Dreamcatcher" is a talented kickboxer and sharp technician, which often allows him to pick apart his foe. After his foe drops or if he pursues the takedown, Mousasi is a crafty grappler as well, always working to strike, sweep, or submit.
As is the case for all opponent's facing off with the current version of Dan Henderson, victory is almost entirely based on whether Mousasi can avoid the big right hand. For the most part, that's Henderson's only path to victory at this stage in his career.
Luckily, Mousasi has a few things going for him. He's a quality kickboxer, capable of dictating range, meaning he should be able to keep Henderson at the end of his longer strikes. Plus, his chin is like a rock. Just ask Lyoto Machida, who landed two head kicks on "The Armenian Assassin" with no effect.
Since Henderson's durability is clearly on the decline, finishing or dropping Henderson is definitely not out of the question. Alternatively, Mousasi could look to force a grueling wrestling match and attack with submissions, another viable path to victory.
So long as Mousasi avoids the big right hand, this is his fight to lose.
Dan Henderson
Record: 30-12
Key Wins: Mauricio Rua (UFC 139 and UFC Fight Night 38), Fedor Emelianenko (Strikeforce: Fedor vs Henderson), Rafael Cavalcante (Strikeforce: Feijao vs Henderson)
Key Losses: Vitor Belfort (UFC Fight Night 32), Daniel Cormier (UFC 173), Lyoto Machida (UFC 157)
Keys to Victory: Henderson may be in the twilight of his career, but he's still a very dangerous fighter. He's finished 14 men via strikes, in most part thanks to his powerful overhand right.
In terms of strategy, Henderson basically has two options. He can either go out and strike with Mousasi -- using his usual right hand heavy style of strike -- or he can look to clinch up and fight from there.
Which game plan Henderson follows should be dependent on how his current skills are holding up, as both age and the weight cut will take away from his talents. Does Henderson still have the physical tools to vigorously wrestle? Will his conditioning hold up for three rounds of forcing the takedown?
If the answer to those questions is yes, Henderson should definitely look to drag Mousasi down to the mat. At worst, it makes him a bit more unpredictable, something Henderson really needs in his game right now.
If not, Henderson needs to stick to believing in his right hand. He's quite good at finding a home for it, even though opponents are aware that it's his bread and butter. And Mousasi's chin may be incredibly sturdy, but Henderson has put down many durable fighters.
Still, it wouldn't be the worst idea for Henderson to occasionally look to tie up with Mousasi, even if the takedown is not his goal. As he proved against "Shogun" Rua in their second battle, Henderson is dangerous on the break as well.
He could catch his opponent slipping.
Bottom Line: This is a pivotal fight for both men.
Mousasi should win this fight, as he's in the prime of his career. It seems like he's finally training right, meaning there are very few good reasons that he should lose to Henderson. Mousasi may not be at the very top of the middleweight division, but he's close and should start a run here.
Were Mousasi to lose, it would be devastating. Losses to "Jacare" Souza and Machida are understandable, but a top 10 fighter should not be defeated by Dan Henderson. If Mousasi falters, expect his ranking to plummet.
Henderson is looking to pull off another career revival. The writing may appear to be on the wall for the 44 year old, but a win here would certainly buy him some time. People have wrongly written off Henderson in the past, and "Hollywood" would like nothing more than to accomplish that feat once more.
Should Henderson lose and continue to fight, he needs a serious drop in competition. Henderson may be expensive -- which means the UFC needs him in high profile fights -- but he shouldn't keep getting matches with the best fighters in the division.
At UFC on FOX 14, Gegard Mousasi and Dan Henderson will slug it out. Which man will leave Sweden in the win column?