Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is putting all of its 145-pound eggs in one Irish basket this Sunday night (Jan. 18, 2015), as featherweight sensation Conor McGregor takes on the unheralded Dennis Siver in the UFC Fight Night 59 main event on FOX Sports 1, from inside TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
While the last few weeks have been the Conor McGregor show, that's by design, as the promotion is already selling mental tickets to a planned title fight against Jose Aldo this summer -- if and when Siver lays down like he's expected to.
That's a shame, because the co-main event presents a much more compelling fight, as Donald Cerrone tries to get one back from his old World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) rival Ben Henderson. It may not be the closing act, but it's already an early favorite for "Fight of the Night."
Elsewhere on the four-fight main card, lightweight elder statesman Gleison Tibau is going to show up and compete against Norman Parke and when all is said and done, have absolutely no impact on the division standings, a phenomenon that dates back to his 2006 debut.
I must admit, his longevity is astounding.
So too, is the fact that UFC found Uriah Hall a middleweight opponent on less than two week's notice. Maybe nobody told Ron Stallings, but that's "Cowboy's" shtick, so "The Choir Boy" needs to start singing a different tune.
Who gets the boot in "Beantown?" Let's find out.
145 lbs.: "Notorious" Conor McGregor (16-2) vs. Dennis Siver (22-9)
Nostradumbass predicts: In order to properly break down this fight, we first have to come back to reality for a few minutes. Conor McGregor is not the god among men that UFC promotes him to be. By that same token, Dennis Siver is not the juiced-up tomato can fans expect he'll be.
"Notorious" still wins.
One of the criticisms about McGregor's push is that we haven't yet seen him compete against a wrestler. That has given rise to some recent arguments based solely on ignorance. We can't say we've never seen him face a wrestler, therefore, he sucks against wrestlers.
If you watch some of his fights overseas, you'll see he does, in fact, have competent wrestling.
How well it holds up against guys like Frankie Edgar and Chad Mendes remains to be seen, but it will be good enough to survive a German mugging tomorrow night when it counts. Part of that has to do with his size -- he simply towers over his opponent and has great hips.
If it does happen to go south, I can't imagine it stays there very long.
That means this "mixed martial arts" fight devolves into a kickboxing match, which doesn't leave me with that warm, fuzzy feeling when you consider that Siver was knocked out by Cub Swanson (bigger) and Melvin Guillard (faster).
McGregor is both.
I don't think it's going to end inside two minutes, as predicted, but it is going to end. Siver is too old, too small, and too slow at this stage of his career. It's not that he's washed up, it's just that he's an old-school fighter trying to overcome the next generation of combat sports athlete.
Final prediction: McGregor def. Siver via technical knockout
155 lbs.: Ben "Smooth" Henderson (21-4) vs. Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (22-6)
Nostradumbass predicts: With a fresh camp and time to prepare, I think Donald Cerrone takes this fight. He's on his way up, while Ben Henderson is on his way down. That said, there are just too many unknowns heading into this co main event to believe "Cowboy" can pull it off.
First and foremost, Cerrone is fighting twice in the span of two weeks. While there is a lot of talk about "momentum," it does not take into account what fighters do in training camp, which is essentially set their bodies to peak at or around fight night.
Simply put, he will not be functioning at the highest level.
Then there is the toll of two consecutive weight cuts. It may not be as brutal during the actual cut, assuming "Cowboy" didn't spent those two weeks in Willy Wonka's Chocolate Factory, but they will likely rear their ugly heads on fight night, which is problematic for a fighter who is a notoriously slow starter.
If there is a brain among the Bendo team, they will exploit this opening.
In actuality, Henderson doesn't have to do much, because his punishing style -- which involves a lot of clinch work and tiring power struggles -- will suffice. His offense tapers off in five-round fights (see close decisions against Gilbert Melendez and Josh Thomson), but he only needs 15 minutes to get it done.
Make it 10, if we concede that Cerrone will need one round to find his rhythm.
Outside of a late finish against Rustam Khabilov, I've only seen one Henderson fight since 2011 where he truly dominated, and that was against the lanky-and-stanky Nate Diaz. His ground game is "Smooth" as silk and he still packs a wallop, but he's also been finished twice in the span of 12 months.
It's a dangerous fight, any way you slice it.
"Cowboy" has a very narrow window to finish this third go-round and if he doesn't, Henderson is going to outwork him for a sweep on the judges' scorecards.
Final prediction: Henderson def. Cerrone via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Uriah "Prime Time" Hall (9-4) vs. Ron "The Choir Boy" Stallings (12-6)
Nostradumbass predicts: What kind of chance we should give Ron Stallings in this fight all depends on how far Uriah Hall has come in his quest to exorcise his mental demons. After battling through a broken toe his last time out, there is no questioning his heart.
That's just it.
Hall had to overcome adversity and fight his way to the finish line. It's when he's tasked with the expectation to dominate -- re: tomorrow night -- that "Prime Time" falters. Look no further than the eggs he laid against Kelvin Gastelum and John Howard, a pair of puffed up welterweights.
And losing two opponents prior to fight night pretty much eliminates any kind of effective gameplan.
That's really the only thing that can win Stallings this fight, as "Choir Boy" doesn't have to do anything except show up and swing for the fences. Hall is an exceptional striker and when he's on, can probably give anyone the fits at 185 pounds.
Is he on?
I believe so. Even if he starts slow and plays the waiting game, it's probably just to figure out his timing, as no doubt Stallings will be looking to take the fight south whenever the opportunity presents itself. If he can't, I have a hard time envisioning this contest lasting more than two rounds.
Final prediction: Hall def. Stallings via technical knockout
155 lbs.: Gleison Tibau (32-10) vs. "Stormin'" Norman Parke (20-2-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Norman Parke has five appearances under the ZUFFA banner and what's telling about his performances is that only one of his previous five opponents has a winning record in UFC. That's Leonardo Santos, who took him to a majority draw last March in Brazil.
To his credit, "Stormin'" was able to capture The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) crown as part of the "Sm-Ashes" cast overseas. But winning an international version of the combat sports reality show is like taking home the first place ribbon at the county fair.
Even if you have the best looking pig, it's still a pig.
I'm struggling to build a credible case for Parke against a bulldozer of a lightweight in Gleison Tibau, who despite failing to gain any kind of ground in the rankings, has faced and beaten some of the top 155-pound fighters in the world.
It would be nice if he could finish a fight, but his mug-and-slug method is effective and difficult to overcome.
Parke is a talented wrestler in his own right with a stifling ground game, but good luck getting this one south. Khabib Nurmagomedov -- considered the division's finest offensive wrestler -- went 0-13 in takedown attempts against the hulking Brazilian.
And found himself taken down instead.
That makes this a fight for survival and Parke will spend most of this contest trying to defend against the charging bull. How much success he has on the feet, where he's probably his weakest, remains to be seen -- but he'll need a Diaz Bros. hit count to win this one on the cards.
Not likely.
Final prediction: Tibau def. Parke via unanimous decision
There you have it.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here and here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC Fight Night 59 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "McGregor vs. Siver."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.