Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) flyweights Demetrious Johnson and Chris Cariaso will battle it out for the position of No. 1 later this evening (Sat., Sept. 27, 2014) inside MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.
After a rough start (1-2) to his 125-pound career, Cariaso recently hit his stride. After finishing Iliarde Santos, Cariaso went on to win a pair of close decisions over Danny Martinez and Louis Smolka. Hardly the usual run to the title, but Cariaso found himself in the right place at the right time.
On the other hand, Johnson has been on fire since his drop in weight. After winning the title in a tight decision win over Joseph Benavidez, "Mighty Mouse" has continued to improve. Not only has he defended his title four times, Johnson managed to finish John Moraga and Benavidez in the rematch.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory.
Chris Cariaso
Record: 17-5
Key Wins: Iliarde Santos (UFC Fight Night 29), Louis Smolka (UFC Fight Night 40)
Key Losses: Jussier Formiga (UFC on FX 8), John Moraga (UFC 155)
Keys to Victory: Though Cariaso has finished just five of his 17 opponents, he's a talented Muay Thai striker. Still, as a 10-1 underdog, Cariaso may need to look to his punching power to overcome Johnson's technical mastery.
There's only one area in which Cariaso will really be competitive with Johnson. At range, Cariaso's kickboxing may match Johnson's own striking. I personally wouldn't predict Cariaso to out-strike the champ anywhere, but it's his best chance.
It's very important that Cariaso pushes the pace. He doesn't have the skill to consistently outpoint Johnson, so Cariaso must pursue a finish with everything he has. Surviving to a decision simply is not the goal.
Becoming a UFC champion is.
In addition to giving Cariaso his best chance at victory, attacking Johnson with everything he has will earn Cariaso respect from the fans. This is a major card and will likely expose many fight fans to Cariaso, so it would definitely help "Kamikaze's" future -- win or lose -- if he puts on an admirable performance.
Fans love to back an underdog. This has been a year of gigantic underdogs successfully beating the odds -- such as TJ Dillashaw and Johnny Eduardo -- and Cariaso has an opportunity to be the biggest of them all. This is his chance, and he must fully go after it.
Demetrious Johnson
Record: 20-2-1
Key Wins: Joe Benavidez (UFC 152, UFC on Fox 9), John Dodson (UFC on Fox 6), Ian McCall (UFC on FX 3)
Key Losses: Dominick Cruz (UFC on Versus 6)
Keys to Victory: "Mighty Mouse" is a phenom. Not only is Johnson a very technical kickboxer and submission artist, his wrestling is among the best in the UFC. Were it not for his size, Johnson would likely be regarded as a top three pound-for-pound fighter.
Simply put, Johnson has a pretty large technical advantage just about everywhere. In addition, Cariaso is not a volatile finisher capable of ending the fight with a single strike or submission hold. That means Johnson can relentlessly pursue a finish without really having to worry about Cariaso's offense or ability to win rounds.
This is a showcase fight for Johnson. Cariaso is a legitimately skilled Top 10-ranked flyweight, but he's quite outgunned. With fan-friendly names like Conor McGregor, Eddie Alvarez and Donald Cerrone on the card, this card will likely get a strong number of viewers.
Therefore, Johnson needs a finish.
Defeating Cariaso over five rounds just isn't enough, as Johnson has struggled to draw pay-per-view (PPV) buys in the past. Getting a finish at the end of dominating performance must be his goal ... anything less would be a disappointment.
Bottom Line: Even though it's not likely to be competitive, this fight is very important to the flyweight landscape.
If Cariaso wins, it would likely be the biggest upset in UFC history. Cariaso has always put up a good fight when matched with top fighters, but he usually comes out on the wrong side of the decision. For him to buck that trend against the best fighter he's ever faced would be an extraordinary moment.
A loss would not have much of an effect on Cariaso's place in the division. He would still be ranked near the bottom of the Top 10, and in all honesty, "Kamikaze" is not likely to build up another title run.
Cariaso never seemed en route to the title anyway.
As mentioned, Johnson is expected to win. It's much more about his performance, as the champ needs to perform like the pound-for-pound great he is. With a finish, Johnson helps prove that he's a technical master and must-watch fighter.
A loss would be devastating. It would cost him his title, ranking, and of course a great deal of money. As it stands, Johnson is on his way to developing a resume that will be incredibly difficult for the next flyweight champion to improve on. With a loss to Cariaso, it remains impressive but is no longer quite as astounding.
At UFC 178, Demetrious Johnson and Chris Cariaso will go to war over Johnson's flyweight title. Which man will walk away with the victory?