Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is done playing jet setter -- at least for the time being -- and will get back to basics in its hometown of Las Vegas, Nevada. The result is a loaded UFC 178 pay-per-view (PPV) fight card with a so-so main event bolstered by an electric undercard.
And the "Prelims" ain't too shabby themselves.
The main event blows, but not because I'm anti-flyweight. I just can't get excited about a guy who is ranked No. 8 walking into a title fight after a split-decision win over Louis Smolka. I understand the promotion needed a replacement title fight after Jon Jones got Reemed, but it doesn't mean I have to like it.
What I do like is the undercard, chock full of compelling match ups with serious title implications across four different weight classes, including women's bantamweight. We'll also find out if Eddie Alvarez is indeed a UFC-caliber fighter, or a glorified can crusher who was a big fish in a little pond.
Here's my best guess.
135 lbs.: Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (20-2) vs. Chris "Kamikaze" Cariaso (17-5)
Nostradumbass predicts: Everyone -- including me -- loves to root for the underdog, or gets warm and fuzzy for a feel-good story. Remember how fun it was to rally for Mark Hunt? Unfortunately, Chris Cariaso is neither of those things. Instead, "Kamikaze" is a middling flyweight who happened to be free on Saturday night when the division imploded around him.
Here's your title shot kid, go out there and try not to hurt yourself.
Obviously, it takes a certain level of talent to be a UFC fighter and Cariaso has skills. But I'm looking at his past fights -- including his submission loss to John Moraga -- and I just don't see anything that tells me he's got the chops to hang with Demetrious Johnson, who not only fights with blinding speed, but has now proven he can finish a fight with one punch.
Can the challenger make that same claim?
In 17 wins, the Californian has just five finishes, and I think we can all agree that going five rounds against "Mighty Mouse" is a fool's errand. Johnson has fought the best the weight class has to offer and triumphed. In fact, you can argue he was -- and perhaps is -- a top-five fighter at bantamweight, as well.
Anything can happen in MMA and blah, blah, blah, but no amount of hype from those slick "Countdown" videos can convince me that this flyweight "fight" is anything other than a routine day at the championship office.
Final prediction: Johnson def. Cariaso by submission
155 lbs.: Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone (24-6) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: The great thing about Donald Cerrone's career -- specifically because of his activity -- is how easily he's able to distance himself from losses. "Cowboy" is the winner of four straight with as many finishes, which is impressive, but that loss to Rafael dos Anjos in Aug. 2013 is not ancient history.
It just feels that way.
Cerrone's sack-straddlers conveniently overlook that little nugget when breaking down this fight, but it's important to note that for all his bravado, it's not uncommon for the Jackson-Winkeljohn fighter to lay an egg in a big spot (see Diaz, Nate).
And of his 11 wins inside the Octagon -- a pretty staggering number considering the time frame in which they were achieved -- only one of them is over a current fighter ranked in the top 10. That's July's ass whooping of the rapidly-declining Jim Miller.
And let's not forget Edson Barboza had him on rubber legs before succumbing to the epic jab of doom.
Simply put, I have a hard time building a case for him against Eddie Alvarez based on that body of work. Like his opponent, the Bellator MMA import is a prolific finisher, ending it early in 21 out of 25 wins. The big question mark heading into this fight is how well he performs in the ZUFFA shark tank.
Considering Alvarez may have the best hands at 155 pounds, I'm not too worried.
Keep in mind that fast Eddie was already 6-0 (with six finishes) before Cerrone ever stepped foot inside a cage. And anyone who thinks he was "exposed" by the loss to Michael Chandler -- later avenged -- doesn't understand what kind of special talent Chandler is or what he's capable of inside the arena.
And Alvarez has been training alongside top UFC fighters for most of his career.
Without one-punch knockout power, or the kind of slick submission skills needed to pull off a Shinya Aoki-type finish, I don't think Cerrone's basic left-right-kick offense mixed with the occasional step-in knee is going to rattle Alvarez. Neither will his volume, because Eddie will gladly accommodate him in the center of the cage.
If he can overcome that sizable height and reach disadvantage, this night belongs to Alvarez, who was sweating inside a musty gym while "Cowboy" was getting laid on the beaches of Lake Mead.
Final prediction: Alvarez def. Cerrone via technical knockout
145 lbs.: "Notorious" Conor McGregor (15-2) vs. Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier (16-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Oh look, the circus is in town. Conor McGregor is the latest fighter to play the role of court jester and to be honest, I don't have a problem with it. What I can't stomach, is guys who talk trash, get their asses whooped, then talk even more trash, like Chael Sonnen.
McGregor keeps winning, so we'll have to grin and bear it until that changes.
Unfortunately, I don't think that starts with Dustin Poirier. "The Diamond" has clearly earned his spot in the division and is a solid, well-rounded fighter. But man, I just can't get that Cub Swanson fight out of my head. He was knocked around for three rounds by a boxer who probably doesn't move as fast as the Irishman.
I've also seen Poirier in all kinds of trouble against Jonathan Brookins, Diego Brandao, and even Akira Corassani. He came back to win -- and finish -- all three of those fights, but these are not the type of strikers who should be landing that kind of potent offense.
His defense is a problem, and I believe it's going to cost him.
It's no secret that McGregor has been the beneficiary of favorable matchmaking as the promotion continues to groom him for superstardom. You think "Notorious" and his long, lean frame could shuck off a Chad Mendes double-leg takedown?
That's relevant here because once again we're getting to see McGregor operate in his wheelhouse. That allows him to focus on nothing except his striking. For my money, and this is just based on three fights inside the cage, he looks to be on another level in terms of movement, much like Jose Aldo was when "Junior" was making a mockery of the WEC featherweight division.
Poirier, as we've already seen, is dangerous even when he's hurt, so I don't expect him to crumble in the same way Brandao did in Ireland. In addition, "The Diamond" is not afraid of McGregor, so he won't be fighting defensively. Unfortunately, that's also the reason he gets popped and dropped, as his disdain for all things Irish will leave him open for a "Notorious" counterpunch.
Final prediction: McGregor def. Poirier via technical knockout
185 lbs.: Tim Kennedy (18-4) vs. Yoel "Soldier of God" Romero (8-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: When was the last time you saw Tim Kennedy get KTFO? Here, I'll save you a trip to the Fight Finder, because the answer is "never." I don't expect him to start tomorrow night against Yoel Romero, either, who knocks people unconscious and then thanks Jesus for the opportunity to do so.
I'm taking the soldier of the United States over the "Soldier of God."
No disrespect to the man upstairs, but Tim Kennedy knows how to handle himself in a dangerous situation and putting aside all those goofy ballerina videos and whatever else he's doing to get attention, the man is a master tactician with the strength of a Belgian blue.
Melvin Manhoef -- who knocked out Mark Hunt -- was rendered combat ineffective against Kennedy. So too, was master grappler and ADCC legend Roger Gracie, which means Kennedy can easily neutralize any skill set. Where he gets into trouble is when he gets lulled into point fighting, like he did against Luke Rockhold.
Not this time.
Romero is dangerous early, but fades as the fight wears on. And despite being one of the most decorated wrestlers to ever compete inside the Octagon, he's surprisingly easy to take down (Derek Brunson did it three times), having struggled to transition those amateur skills over to the cage.
Expect that to be his undoing.
Kennedy -- one of the strongest middleweights in the game -- is going to play cat-and-mouse for the first few minutes and then utilize some clinch-heavy attacks. Sporadic takedowns would not surprise me and by the second stanza, Romero will be sucking wind.
From that point on, it's Kennedy's fight to lose.
Final prediction: Kennedy def. Romero via unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Cat "Alpha" Zingano (8-0) vs. Amanda "Lioness" Nunes (9-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Cat Zingano could be in big trouble here. If she thinks she's going to out-tough Amanda Nunes, or just walk through the Brazilian's offense like she did against Miesha Tate, "Alpha" is in for a very rude awakening.
"Lioness" can throw some heavy leather.
And let's not pretend that coming back from reconstructive knee surgery is not a big deal, because it is. Nunes is a huge bantamweight with a ton of power, making her a dangerous first fight back from Zingano's extended layoff. The flip side to that, of course, is that she also has the gas tank of a Briggs & Stratton push mower, so after a few passes up and down the cage, she'll be running on empty.
If Zingano can avoid the early blitzkrieg, she can come back with one of her own in the second stanza.
For me, that's the key to this fight. Zingano is a notoriously slow starter and will need to avoid a bangfest to exploit her opponent's fatal flaw. In addition, she may have cardio issues of her own after a year on the bench. That means her key to victory is clinch work early and often.
Even if it doesn't get the crowd on its feet, it's the right play to stay alive.
Final prediction: Zingano def. Nunes via technical knockout
That's a wrap.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here and here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC 178 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Johnson vs. Cariaso."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.