Last time, we got the greatest upkick knockout in recent memory. Imagine what we'll get this Friday night (Sept. 5, 2014)?.
Two former Strikeforce champions will battle it out again when Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) hits The Grand Theater at Foxwoods Resort Casino in Mashantucket, Conn., with UFC Fight Night 50. In the main event, Brazilian jiu-jitsu legend Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza will put his six-fight win streak on the line against Gegard Mousasi, who has lost just twice since 2006.
In addition, Alistair Overeem will face the absurdly-durable powerhouse that is Ben Rothwell, while Matt Mitrione takes on fellow knockout artist Derrick Lewis in additional Heavyweight mixed martial arts (MMA) action.
All in all, it looks to be quite the FOX Sports 1 show. Let's see what kind of profit we can drag kicking and screaming out of it:
UFC Fight Night 50 Odds For The Under Card:
Al Iaquinta (-530) vs. Rodrigo Damm (+350)
Rafael Natal (-175) vs. Chris Camozzi (+135)
Chris Beal (-350) vs. Tateki Matsuda (+250)
Chas Skelly (-245) vs. Sean Soriano (+175)
Thoughts: As much as I like it when there are only a couple of "Prelims" (since it makes my other job so much easier), it doesn’t lend itself well to finding under card bargains. Therefore, let’s just stick with the main card.
UFC Fight Night 50 Odds For The Main Card:
Ronaldo Souza (-310) vs. Gegard Mousasi (+255)
Alistair Overeem (-550) vs. Ben Rothwell (+425)
Derrick Lewis (-160) vs. Matt Mitrione (+140)
Michael Chiesa (-140) vs. Joe Lauzon (+120)
Charles Oliveira (-150) vs. Nik Lentz (+130)
Justin Scoggins (-225) vs. John Moraga (+185)
Thoughts: There are quite a few pick-ems here, which is great from an entertainment point of view, but less so from the point of view of those trying to squeeze profits out of it. I do believe there’s value in Mousasi and Chiesa, though.
I’m a huge fan of "Jacare," recognizing that he’s got a serious grappling advantage over most of the Middleweight division. That said, I don’t see the reason he’s such a huge favorite. His stand up, while improved, still relies too much on the overhand right and he tends to lose explosiveness past the first round. And I don’t see him having much success getting past Mousasi’s jab.
The aforementioned grappling advantage makes this, in my opinion, about a 50-50 fight, making a bet on a 2.5-1 under dog potentially profitable.
Lauzon’s opportunistic grappling attack makes him one of the most entertaining guys in the division on the mat. It can also cost him against superior positional grapplers, of which Chiesa is an excellent example. Chiesa has the wrestling ability to put Lauzon on his back regularly and steer clear of that freakish aggression. He’ll probably have to power through a couple of close calls, but I have confidence in his ability to beat Lauzon on the mat.
Therefore, a moderate bet on the The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 15 winner makes sense.
In addition, Oliveira might be worth a look just based on how badly he was trucking Lentz before the illegal knee. Lentz’s been on a tear since dropping to 145 pounds, though, so it might be better to just sit back and see what happens without a fiscal investment.
UFC Fight Night 50 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Gegard Mousasi: Bet $30 to make $76.50
- Single bet -- Michael Chiesa: Bet $56 to make $40
This is one thousand times better than UFC 177 ... and this one's free. What more could you ask for?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 50: "Jacare vs. Mousasi" results on fight night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$147.90