They're big in Japan ... and everywhere else, really.
Two of the most powerful punchers in the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight division will do battle this Saturday (Sept. 20, 2014) at the famous Saitama Super Arena in Saitama, Japan, when the world's leading mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion returns to "Land of the Rising Sun" with UFC Fight Night 52.
In the main event, Mark Hunt -- fresh off a "Fight of the Year" at the end of 2013 -- will face Roy Nelson, who was last seen blasting the great "Minotauro" Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira into complete unconsciousness for perhaps the first time in the former champion's career.
In addition, one-time Pride FC Lightweight kingpin Takanori Gomi will take on The Ultimate Fighter 15 veteran Myles Jury in the co-main event, while Miesha Tate faces the Queen of Pancrase, Rin Nakai, in women's Bantamweight action.
The entire card will stream online via UFC's Fight Pass network; therefore, what better way to use the money you would have otherwise spent on purchasing a pay-per-view (PPV), for example, than by throwing it away in the vain hope of turning a profit?
Let's get to it:
UFC Fight Night 52 Odds For The Under Card:
Alex Caceres (-280) vs. Masanori Kanehara (+220)
Katsunori Kikuno (-155) vs. Sam Sicilia (+125)
Hyun Gyu Lim (-550) vs. Takenori Sato (+400)
Michinori Tanaka (-175) vs. Kyung Ho Kang (+145)
Kazuki Tokudome (-160) vs. Johnny Case (+130)
Maximo Blanco (-180) vs. Dan Hooker (+150)
Thoughts: Seeing as this is a Japanese MMA card loaded with Japanese MMA fighters the average fan has never heard of, you’d think I’d be in position to clean up. Unfortunately, it’s been a long time since Tiequan Zhang was a 2-1 favorite over a debuting fighter and the oddsmakers have wised up.
The only thing close to a bargain I see is Kanehara.
Kanehara has the rare luxury of a height advantage over Caceres, who normally excels using his length. In addition, he packs deceptive power and some solid counter-striking. Even though Caceres’ current run is impressive, he’s had the most success against when his opponents looked to take it to the mat, having mixed success against Sergio Pettis and Urijah Faber on the feet.
I believe Kanehara’s boxing can carry him to the upset win.
As for the rest:
- Kikuno has a tendency to fight like an idiot.
- Lim’s pretty much a guaranteed lock, but -550 won’t add any real meat to your parlays. Still, why not?
- Kang’s got physical advantages that just might be enough to overcome Tanaka’s positional dominance.
- Tokudome hasn’t got the chin to be a lock.
- Blanco has a fight IQ you can count on one hand.
So, in short, safe investments are in short supply.
UFC Fight Night 52 Odds For The Main Card:
Mark Hunt (-140) vs. Roy Nelson (+120)
Myles Jury (-550) vs. Takanori Gomi (+425)
Yoshihiro Akiyama (-165) vs. Amir Sadollah (+145)
Miesha Tate (-260) vs. Rin Nakai (+220)
Kiichi Kunimoto (-240) vs. Richard Walsh (+200)
Kyoji Horiguchi (-550) vs. Jon delos Reyes (+425)
Thoughts: Options are similarly limited here on the main card. I thought Nakai could be worth something just based on how badly Tate did for the first two rounds against fellow wrassler Liz Carmouche, but it’s too big a step up for Rin to be confident in her victory. Hunt’s been hurt more than usual in his last two fights, so I’m not confident in betting on him, either, despite his technical striking advantage.
And I may love Gomi, but I know a bad match up when I see it.
"Sexyama" could be worth a look, just based on Sadollah’s grappling struggles and extended time off. Akiyama may be on a four-fight skid, but two of those losses were to Top 10-ranked Middleweight veterans in Vitor Belfort and Michael Bisping ... and he didn’t do half bad against Jake Shields.
In other words, put your faith in the Sexy One.
UFC Fight Night 52 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Masanori Kanehara: Bet $40 to make $88
- Parlay -- Hyun Gyu Lim and Yoshihiro Akiyama: Bet $50 to make $45
Two tremendous knockout artists in the main event and the best Asia has to offer to pave the way. It's not like you have work to worry about on Saturday morning , anyway.
See you there, Maniacs.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$71.50