Martial arts that solely involve grappling have never been particularly good at drawing eyes. Metamoris founder Ralek Gracie, however, has come up with his own solution to this problem.
One that includes a strong focus on submissions, excellent production and commentary, and bringing in mixed martial arts (MMA) stars to duel with jiu-jitsu phenoms.
It hasn't always worked out -- the Brendan Schaub debacle still stains the promotion's short history -- but Metamoris is undoubtedly the most viewer-friendly grappling event around. And with the extremely polarizing Sonnen (hopefully) headlining the card against the ferocious Andre Galvao, this could be the promotion's biggest event yet.
Before getting into predictions, it's important to remember the Metamoris scoring system. Namely, there isn't one. Competitors have 20 minutes to submit their opponents, otherwise the match is a draw. It doesn't matter how dominant a grappler was positionally or how often he threatened with submissions, it's a tie unless there is a tap out.
With that in mind, let's look at how these 12 competitors match up.
Chael Sonnen +1603 vs. Andre Galvao -1497 (Draw +301)
The odds say it all.
Sonnen is the stronger, bigger grappler and has a lengthy wrestling career, which is very valuable in jiu-jitsu. Additionally, he's well known for his strong top game and dangerous chokes, which finished jiu-jitsu black belt Mauricio "Shogun" Rua.
He also has a history of poor submission defense, mental lapses, and the Nevada State Athletic Commission (NSAC) doing their best to distract him from his very dangerous foe.
His opponent, Andre Galvao, spends his time training with many of the best in grapplers in the world at Atos Jiu-Jitsu, mauling opponents, and winning gold medals in the Abu Dhabi Combat Club (ADCC) tournament. Worst still for Sonnen, Galvao has plenty of success in open weight divisions against better grapplers.
Expect Sonnen to look to secure top position early, which Galvao will likely make him work hard for. The question from there really becomes whether he can survive Galvao's guard long enough to earn a draw, but Sonnen will still likely attempt to pass and deliver on his promise of an exciting match. When he does open up, look for "Deco" to set up a sweep and explode into a dominant position.
From there, it's just a matter of time. I expect Galvao to secure a rear naked choke within the first 10 minutes of their match.
Saulo Ribeiro +160 vs. Robert Medeiros +160 (Draw -275)
Saulo Ribeiro, brother to fellow grappling phenom Xande Ribeiro, is one of the most decorated grapplers on the card. With five gold medals from the Worlds and two from ADCC, Ribeiro has proven his talent repeatedly. In 2009, the Royler Gracie black belt would retire from competition, but returned less than a year later.
Medeiros may not be as well known as his opponent, but the two-time open weight division (Worlds) winner is nonetheless a talented grappler. "Comprido" has also coached a number of former UFC heavyweight fighters, including Brock Lesnar and Pat Barry.
As the odds suggest, this should be a very close match. However, I expect the experience of Ribeiro -- who has competed in every major tournament multiple times -- to give him the advantage. I doubt, however, that it's enough to submit Medeiros.
Josh Barnett +720 vs. Dean Lister -747 (Draw +197)
Barnett, the former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heavyweight champion, is one of the better grapplers in the division's history. As the "Warmaster" loves to mention, he's a proud catch wrestling representative and looks to bring his style of submission fighting onto the Metamoris stage.
In 2009, he won gold in the no-gi Worlds.
Generally, Barnett relies on his heavy top game to pressure foes into giving up a choke, be it the rear naked or arm triangle. He's also rather accomplished with joint locks from the top, such as kimuras and americanas.
Dean Lister was also a UFC fighter, although his career was not as long nor as successful as Barnett's. However, Lister is a very accomplished no-gi player, having won gold at ADCC in 2011 and silver two years later. Lister is well known for his brutal footlock game, which is bolstered by years of Sambo experience, as well as being nearly impossible to submit.
In this match, Lister will likely pull guard early and look to attack Barnett's legs whenever possible. Initially, I thought that this match would go to a draw, as Barnett's size advantage and experience could keep him safe throughout the match. However, Barnett loves leglocks too, and isn't likely to shy away from them against Lister.
That will be a costly mistake, and it only takes one against a grappler as good as Lister.
Vinny Magalhaes +115 vs. Keenan Cornelius +140 (Draw -200)
Magalhaes is an ADCC gold medalist, famed rubber guard user, and former UFC fighter. Known for his incredible flexibility -- which makes him very difficult to submit and better with the high guard -- Magalhaes has not competed very often in grappling lately, focusing on his MMA career.
He was forced to withdraw from Metamoris 3 with a nasty staph infection.
Keenan Cornelius, on the other hand, is an extremely active competitor, best known for his phenomenal 2013, in which he accomplished what is now known as a jiu-jitsu "Double Grand Slam." As a brown belt, he won his division and the open weight division in the Worlds, Pan-Ams, European Open, and Brazilian National Jiu-Jitsu Championships. Now a black belt under Andre Galvao, Cornelius had an impressive showing at the 2013 ADCC, earning bronze in his weight class and the open division.
This will be an interesting style match up, as Magalhaes' 10th planet offense goes up against Cornelius' sport jiu-jitsu attack. Overall, I expect Cornelius to win the majority of the scrambles. Magalhaes is notoriously difficult to submit, but Keenan is an incredibly impressive young grappler with excellent pace and conditioning. I see him finding the back in a scramble and locking in the rear naked choke late.
Gary Tonon +400 vs. Kit Dale +350 (Draw -315)
This should be an excellent scrap between two men still trying to make their mark on the jiu-jitsu scene. I've had the pleasure of watching Tonon compete in person before, and he's a very talented young grappler with an aggressive style. In the 2013 ADCC tournament, the 170-pound Tonon had some of the toughest match ups possible, wrestling Kron Gracie (gold medalist), Keenan Cornelius, and Marcus "Buchecha" Almeida (gold medalist and giant).
Kit Dale, a Checkmat black belt, is one of Australia's finest grapplers. In addition to earning his black belt in less than five years, Dale won the Brazilian national championship in 2011 and is a 9-time Australian national champ.
Despite his losses at ADCC, Tonon is an elite jiu-jitsu competitor at just 22 years old. I expect him to have a slight advantage over Dale, but it likely won't be enough to submit the Australian. Regardless, this match should have plenty of action.
Final picks:
Chael Sonnen vs. Andre Galvao: Galvao by submission
Josh Barnett vs. Dean Lister: Lister by submission
Saulo Ribeiro vs. Robert Medeiros: Draw
Vinny Magalaghaes vs. Keenan Cornelius: Cornelius by submission
Gary Tonon vs. Kit Dale: Draw
There you have it.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live Metamoris 4: "Galvao vs. Sonnen" results this upcoming Saturday, beginning at 8 p.m. ET with the online pay-per-view (PPV) broadcast, including blow-by-blow, choke-by-choke coverage from start to finish.
See you then!
See you then!