Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is in a big hurry to give Renan Barao his belt back.
Either that, or it's rushing to boot him from the division title picture for good. One of those two scenarios is likely as we head into the UFC 177 pay-per-view (PPV) event this Sat. night (Aug. 30, 2014) inside Sleep Train Arena in Sacramento, California.
I'm not sure how else to explain the haste in which this do-over was assembled.
Especially considering the Brazilian wasn't the victim of a flash knockout, or tripped up by a slick submission in the opening frame of UFC 173 last May. Heck, we can't even blame this one on the judges, because he was beaten pillar-to-post for nearly five rounds before the referee waved the white flag.
Fortunately for Barao, the list of alternate contenders is flimsy at best, at least until Dominick Cruz can get one or two wins under his belt.
Speaking of WEC imports, Danny Castillo will try to make one last run at lightweight gold when he locks horns with The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 13 champion Anthony Ferguson in the co-main event. "Last Call" has struggled to stay consistent since crossing over, while "El Cucuy" has just one loss in six trips to the Octagon.
And let's not forget about the UFC debut of chatty "Horsewoman" Shayna Baszler, who looks to avenge the loss Jessamyn Duke suffered at the hands of Bethe Correia by turning away the power--punching Brazilian this weekend in "Sactown."
All that and so much more. Let's get crackin'...
135 lbs.: T.J. "The Viper" Dillashaw (10-2) vs. Renan "Barao" Pegado (32-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: TJ Dillashaw did an outstanding job at UFC 173 and deserves every accolade that comes his way. I won't dispute that. But I'm genuinely surprised at how many fight fans have tossed Renan Pegado in the trash after one awful showing.
The usual MMA crap.
He was "exposed" ... "Urijah Faber chokes in big fights and Michael McDonald was never any good to begin with" ... "He's lucky he didn't fight Dominick Cruz" ... and so on and so forth. You don't go on a nine-year unbeaten streak without getting a little complacent.
And a little cocky.
I believe the Brazilian was just like everyone else heading into the Memorial Day Weekend PPV in thinking that Dillashaw didn't have a chance in hell, but getting punished for being ill-prepared on fight night does not erase an entire body of work.
UFC 173 was a wake-up call for Pegado and I don't think he was in the fight after that first knockdown. By his own admission, "Barao" has no memory of the second half of their contest and this is the kind of painful defeat that makes or breaks a fighter's career.
That's bad news for "The Viper."
I'm confident that Pegado is still the superior fighter in every skill set. The question is, can he solve the theory of Banganomics? Dillashaw had a perfect gameplan for striking with the Brazilian their last time out and his wrestling is already top shelf, so the former champion was baffled right out of the gate.
Not this time.
Expect a more patient, calculated "Barao" who will now get to enjoy Dillashaw as the one with the overconfidence. Will there be a finish? I'm not expecting one, but I do think people can learn from their mistakes and that the belt comes back to Brazil.
Final prediction: Pegado def. Dillashaw via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Danny "Last Call" Castillo (17-6) vs. Tony "El Cucuy" Ferguson (15-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: Danny Castillo is a rugged veteran with a ton of experience and to his credit, he's faced some pretty stiff competition over the course of his seven-year career. The bad news is he's 35, and if he was going to do something special under the UFC banner, he would have done it already.
No, stealing Charlie Brenneman's soul does not count.
Every time "Last Call" gets some momentum, he gives it right back, and I don't think tomorrow will be any exception. He was a good collegiate wrestler, but Tony Ferguson was better. Castillo also has decent power, but can't work the hands the way "El Cucuy" can.
It's the classic "anything you can do, I can do better."
If anything hurts Ferguson, it's his inactivity, but I just have a hard time imagining Castillo getting off first or finding a way to make this fight ugly and drag it to the floor. The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 13 champ will need a round to get his timing down but once he does, it's lights out.
Final prediction: Ferguson def. Castillo via knockout
135 lbs.: Shayna "Queen of Spades" Baszler (15-8) vs. Bethe "Pitbull" Correia (8-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: Shayna Baszler entered TUF 18 as a heavy favorite to win the competition, despite coming off a submission loss to Alexis Davis in Invicta FC. Instead, she was embarrassed by Julianne Pena in her first elimination fight and hasn't been seen since.
But she's done plenty of talking.
Meanwhile her opponent, Bethe Correia, has been in cruise control across her first eight bouts, retiring Julie Kedzie and knocking off "Four Horsewomen" stablemate Jessamyn Duke. The big knock against "The Pitbull" has been her inability to finish anyone, but it's no secret she's still a little rough around the edges.
And short. Like, a pair of coke bottles and she's that crazy midget lady from Poltergeist. "Come children ... alllll welcome."
Baszler has the chops to submit the Brazilian if she can keep her composure, as well as maintain her cardio. The challenge will be to get this fight to the ground, which may require her to eat some punches and pull guard. Capitalizing on Correia's inexperience is the path to victory and I think she gets it done.
"Pitbull" has been winning, but hasn't been winning convincingly and the way she's been carrying on about Ronda Rousey leads me to believe she's overconfident -- and perhaps overlooking "The Queen of Spades." That's going to cost her when it counts.
Final prediction: Baszler def Correia via submission
145 lbs.: Carlos Diego Ferreira (10-0) vs. Ramsey Nijem (9-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: I had to keep checking the betting lines on this one because they continue to baffle me. Carlos Ferreira a 2-to-1 favorite? Based on what? He's had just one fight inside the Octagon, where he choked out Colton Smith on a Canadian TUF card.
That's like going yard in co-ed softball.
Smith is awful and has been finished in four out of his last five fights. Prior to that "accomplishment," Ferreira was recycling cans on the Brazilian circuit. I just don't get the hype, especially when you consider that every time he throws hands, he looks like a GoBot who got stuck transforming.
Let's pretend he's the dynamo bookies peg him to be.
He still has to step into the cage against Ramsey Nijem, a Division-1 wrestler with endless cardio and power in both hands. While he stumbled out of the gate and had a bit of a rough patch last summer, he's continued to improve with each fight and has too much big-game experience to silver-platter a submission.
I say Nijem beats him up, takes him down, and pounds him out.
Final prediction: Nijem def. Ferreira via technical knockout
Damon "The Leech" Jackson (9-0) vs. Yancy "The Kid" Medeiros (9-2, 1 NC)
Nostradumbass predicts: I normally don't pick a guy who jumps in on super-short notice, but that's not going to be an issue for an animal like Damon Jackson. Prior to running the table on the regional scene, "The Leech" was an All-American wrestler and personal trainer.
Simply put, he's in great shape all year round.
He also fought just over a month ago, so it's not like he's been relaxing on the beach, working on his tan. My concern heading into this fight is how well he can handle Yancy Medeiros on the feet, because that's where the Hawaiian intends to keep it.
While Jackson has been perfect through nine fights, Medeiros has fallen on hard times. He has a no contest sandwiched around two finishes to Rustam Khabilov and Jim Miller, which tells me he's not quirte ready for the upper echelon of the division.
Something Jackson is not.
Still, the Legacy Fighting Championship import is a relentless ground fighter and is going to make this fight a 15-minute battle of attrition. I think Medeiros is too wily to get choked out, but he'll spend the better part of three rounds on the floor, fighting off submissions.
Final prediction: Jackson def. Medeiros via unanimous decision
That's a wrap.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here and here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC 177 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Dillashaw vs. Barao 2."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.