Trying to figure out how many wins Ben Henderson needs in order to earn another Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) lightweight title shot, is like trying to figure out how many licks it takes to get to the Tootsie Roll center of a Tootsie Pop.
The number is impossible to predict, but we know it's going to be pretty high.
That said, Henderson is already three fights removed from his submission loss to longtime mixed martial arts (MMA) nemesis Anthony Pettis, who finished what he started at WEC 51 and stripped "Smooth" of the strap in the main event of UFC 164.
It's a shame, too, because outside of "Showtime," Henderson (21-3) has been damn-near perfect.
He's also won back-to-back fights since his disappointing loss last year in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and has a chance to make it three straight when he locks horns with venerable division contender Rafael dos Anjos in the main event of UFC Fight Night 49 this Saturday night (Aug. 23, 2014) on FOX Sports 1 (results here).
And to resurrect one of sports most tired cliches, this bout is a "must win."
More so for Henderson than for the Brazilian. But the unfortunate reality is that a win does nothing for "Smooth" at this juncture, while a loss would boot him from the title hunt for the foreseeable future. Does beating Dos Anjos warrant another crack at the crown?
Nope.
At this point, the best case scenario is a win for Gilbert Melendez, who tries to dethrone Pettis at the UFC 181 pay-per-view (PPV) event in December. Henderson already holds a win over "El Nino," but it was a fight so close that a rematch would not be uncalled for.
However...
There is also some history between Melendez and Bellator import Eddie Alvarez, who spent several years jawing as promoters attempted to make that "super fight" happen in 2010. Things didn't work out, but I don't think fans would have a problem with Alvarez -- a former champion -- getting first dibs on the title if he steamrolls No. 4 ranked Donald Cerrone at UFC 178.
Once again leaving Henderson in limbo.
UFC 181 is over three months away, so assuming the Pettis vs. Melendez title fight takes place without any injuries, it would likely be another three-to-four months before the strap was up for grabs. Even if the injury bug started chomping on the next guy in line, Henderson is still six-to-seven months away from a maybe scenario.
Simply put, he's stuck in a holding pattern.
The good news is, Khabib Nurmagomedov will return to action in January following ACL surgery (more on that here) and would make a intriguing opponent for Henderson. Both are powerful wrestlers with decorated grappling pedigrees and that's the kind of win -- on either side -- that makes a case for a title shot.
Until then, all Henderson can do is keep fighting (and winning).