Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to FOX Sports 1 this Saturday night (Aug. 16, 2014) with UFC Fight Night 47: "Bader vs. St. Preux" from Cross Insurance Center in Bangor, Maine, and considering this is the promotion's debut in UFC President Dana White's home state, they haven't exactly stacked the deck.
Ryan Bader? Ovince St. Preux?
Probably not two names that scream MAIN EVENT, but it's certainly an upgrade from that recent farce in New Zealand. Anyway, we do have some interesting match ups scattered across the main card, like Ross Pearson vs. Gray Maynard, which could turn into a snuff film if "The Bully" doesn't get his shit turned around.
As a human being with a soul, I'm not sure I can stomach another performance like the one he turned in against Nate Diaz.
We have six fights to get through, so let's just get right to it.
205 lbs.: Ryan "Darth" Bader (17-4) vs. Ovince "OSP" St. Preux (16-5)
Nostradumbass predicts: Ovince St. Preux has looked great in recent fights, racking up five straight wins with four nasty finishes. He didn't end up in the division's top 10 by accident. But what bothers me is that "OSP" has only been tested once in his career.
And he failed.
That was his ugly loss to Gegard Mousasi back in 2011. Ancient history? Perhaps, but knocking around Cody Donovan and submitting Ryan Jimmo doesn't tell me he's a threat to the title. But it does tell me he will kick your ass if you sleep on him.
That's where this thing gets tricky.
Ryan Bader believes he's on another level than St. Preux, which worries me in regards to the stand-up. "Darth" has concrete in his right hand, but his defense sucks and I've seen him go limp enough times to know he should keep that sidearm holstered unless he's fighting a fellow wrestler.
Speaking of...
The champion of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 8 is now the winner of two straight because he got back to doing what he does best, and that's taking guys down and beating them up. I believe he can do the same thing to St. Preux, if he chooses to, but a comfortable win streak with a confident approach to the stand-up brings doom.
If Bader, who has experience against top guys like Jon Jones and Lyoto Machida, can swallow his pride and go for the win -- instead of the statement -- he takes home a decision. Otherwise, he takes a nap.
Final prediction: Bader def. St. Preux via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Gray "The Bully" Maynard (11-3-1) vs. Ross "Real Deal" Pearson (15-7)
Nostradumbass predicts: This fight is going to tell us a lot about the future of Gray Maynard, who surprisingly, has just 14 UFC fights over the last seven years. To put that into context, Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone also has 14 UFC fights and he's only been here since 2011.
"The Bully" also enters this contest on the heels of two frightening knockout losses and to compound the problem, he turns 35 in just over two weeks.
If Maynard insists on turning this into a boxing match, he's likely to lose. He's undoubtedly the strongest fighter at 155 pounds and hits like a cement truck, but his defense is awful and he takes way too much damage. That was not an issue (short term) when his chin was holding up.
But that was then and this is now.
Pearson is not exactly a knockout artist, but he's got great output and terrific head movement. I could very easily see him landing at will as Maynard hunts him down looking for the finish. "Real Deal" also has some of the better takedown defense in this division, but they don't call him "The Bully" because it sounds cool.
If Maynard wants you on the floor, you're going to the floor.
Why so many wrestlers -- take Sean Sherk for example -- abandon their bread and butter just to become mediocre strikers has always puzzled me. If Maynard makes this WrestleMania, it's his fight. Sadly, I'm not sure his pride will allow him to, and Pearson will rat-tat-tat his way to a close decision win.
Final prediction: Pearson def. Maynard via unanimous decision
185 lbs.: Tim "The Barbarian" Boetsch (17-7) vs. Brad Tavares (12-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: Tim Boetsch is a great guy with the strength of an ox, but I think it's pretty obvious at this point that he's just not good enough to compete with today's generation of fighters. In fact his nickname, "The Barbarian," is quite appropriate, because he was good about six or seven years ago when clubbing people over the head was enough to win fights.
He's looked awful ever since.
He had a great comeback win against Yushin Okami, but was getting worked the entire fight. He beat Hector Lombard because "Lightning" forgot how to strike, then came a 1-3 run with two finishes and that lone victory was the CB Dollaway robbery.
I can't pick him here, even if he is the hometown hero.
A lot of that has to do with his opponent, Brad Tavares, who is seven years younger than Boetsch and 7-2 under the ZUFFA banner. The big knock against the Hawaiian is that he hasn't finished anyone in nine professional fights inside the Octagon. Of course, he's never been finished himself, either.
And good luck getting him to the ground.
Boetsch is a surly wrestler with plenty of power, but his footwork stinks and his swing-for-the-fences mentality is going to cost him in the long term. Tavares will be fresher, faster, and busier across all three rounds, and I expect smooth sailing en route to a sweep on the judges' scorecards.
Final prediction: Tavares def. Boetsch via unanimous decision
170 lbs.: Seth "The Polish Pistola" Baczynski (19-11) vs. Alan "Brahma" Jouban (9-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: Here we have a fighter who is 1-3 over his last four and on the brink of release, taking on a guy who never fought in UFC before. If someone has an awesome explanation for why this welterweight contest is on the main card, I'm all ears.
The best thing going for Seth Baczynski is his size. He's a giant for 170 pounds and jumped out to an early 4-0 start after coming up short during his stint on TUF. But when the competition got a little tougher, he faltered, and he turns 33 in just over a month.
What you see is what you get.
I still favor him over Alan Jouban, who did pretty well for himself on the regional circuit. Baczynski may be on a downturn, but he's still far and away the more experienced fighter, having faced the likes of Thiago Alves, Mike Pierce, and Matt Brown.
"Brahma" is a prolific finisher, but hasn't defeated anyone of note. Plus "Octagon jitters" and all that jazz. I'll take "The Polish Pistola" by triangle choke.
Final prediction: Baczynski def. Jouban via submission
265 lbs.: "Savage" Shawn Jordan (15-6) vs. Jack "The Outlaw" May (7-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Two giant heavyweights coming off two awful performances. I'm surprised they're not in the main event! Shawn Jordan is not a great fighter. I was watching the weigh ins on FOX Sports 2 and the analysts kept talking about how superb he was as a collegiate athlete.
If you are six fights into your UFC career and all they can talk about is how you were somebody in college, it's usually a bad sign. To that end, "Savage" was creamed in consecutive appearances against Gabriel Gonzaga and Matt Mitrione, who both are "names," but neither are ranked in the top 10.
Compounding the problem is the fact that all four of Jordan's UFC wins have come against fighters who are no longer with the promotion. I still pick him to win because Jack May has less than half the experience and has yet to fight anyone even remotely recognizable to the average fan.
Unless you count Derrick Lewis, who damn-near killed him in Orlando.
May is the taller and quicker fighter, but I think Jordan learned a very painful lesson in his last two fights. He's not "Money" Mayweather nor should he try to be. If he can make this fight ugly and use some of that Hulk strength to take things south, he might end this thing in two.
Final prediction: Jordan def. May via technical knockout
145 lbs.: Thiago Tavares (18-5-1) vs. Robbie "Problems" Peralta (18-4)
Nostradumbass predicts: Thiago Tavares finally drops to featherweight after not really doing anything of note as a lightweight. In fact, his biggest headlines at 155 pounds came for failing a drug test for steroids. His name feels more important than it is, probably because he's been around forever.
But he's had seven years and 15 fights to crack the top 10 and ... nothing.
The Brazilian is good -- but not great -- in most areas of MMA. The biggest issue for him, one that will haunt him tomorrow night, is his striking defense. He's gone out three times in five losses and Robbie Peralta ends 72 percent of his fights by way of knockout.
Peralta had some "Problems" against Akira Corassani in a close fight, but he's 11-1 over the past five years and we already know he's a capable featherweight. We don't yet know that about Tavares, but based on what I saw at lightweight, I'm not expecting miracles.
Final prediction: Peralta def. Tavares via technical knockout
That's a wrap.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC Fight Night 47 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Bader vs. St. Preux."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.