Wonder what they'll use the other four rounds for.
Prepare for violence this Saturday night (July 26, 2014) as the arena formerly known as the Shark Tank plays host to a clash of Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Welterweight elite. Robbie Lawler -- fresh off of a thorough domination of Jake Ellenberger -- will take on Matt Brown and his seven-fight win streak in the main event of UFC on FOX 12 in San Jose, California.
In addition, "Little Nog" Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will compete against Anthony Johnson after 17 months away, while Dennis Bermudez faces Clay Guida in a battle of Featherweight grinders.
It's one hell of a free card. Let's see what's going on under the hood:
UFC on FOX 12 Odds For The Under Card:
Jorge Masvidal (-240) vs. Daron Cruickshank (+200)
Patrick Cummins (-145) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (+125)
Tim Means (-260) vs. Hernani Perpetuo (+220)
Brian Ortega (-150) vs. Mike de la Torre (+130)
Tiago dos Santos (-200) vs. Akbarh Arreola (+170)
Gilbert Burns (-165) vs. Andreas Stahl (+145)
Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-265) vs. Juliana Lima (+225)
Steven Siler (-255) vs. Noad Lahat (+215)
Thoughts: Playing favorites almost worked last week, so let’s do that, but with less money hinging on a single fight. Seriously, the one fight on the whole card I pick wrong …
Anyway, I’ll just spell it out: dos Santos, Burns and Jedrzejczyk.
For all the flaws "Trator" has, among them an untested sprawl, some sloppy punches and an overly-upright stance, I believe he’s going to run over Arreola. Akbarh does not have the resiliency to stand up to the Brazilian’s offensive output and doesn’t look to have the positional control necessary to take him out of his comfort zone. "Caballero" has come up short every time he’s faced high-level competition unless you include Gabe Ruediger in that group, and I don’t expect that to change against the Brazilian champ.
Admittedly, some questions remain about Stahl, especially since there doesn’t seem to be any footage of him since his return to the sport in 2013. That said, "Durinho’s" Brazilian jiu-jitsu pedigree is absolutely elite and what I know of Stahl suggests he prefers to take it to the mat.
Stylistically, this favors Burns in a big way -- bet appropriately.
Jedrzejczyk caught my eye in a big way. Her striking is a joy to watch and her punches seem to have some real sting to them. Lima’s been feasting on poor competition and lacks both the speed and fluidity to handle Joanna on the feet.
Keep an eye on Jedrzejczyk and see if you can’t make some scratch on her.
UFC On FOX 12 Odds For The Main Card:
Robbie Lawler (-370) vs. Matt Brown (+310)
Anthony Johnson (-550) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+425)
Dennis Bermudez (-155) vs. Clay Guida (+135)
Josh Thomson (-255) vs. Bobby Green (+215)
Thoughts: I don’t like Clay Guida. I am very open about this fact and as a result was rather thoroughly embarrassed when he defeated Tatsuya Kawajiri (not to mention broken-hearted). Just putting that out there before I confidently announce that Bermudez is going to truck him.
Bermudez is a physical powerhouse who has developed a brutal clinch game and possesses the cardio to fling his opponents around for the full 15 minutes. More important, he can blend his striking and takedowns, an area in which Kawajiri has struggled of late. Though he has some defensive liabilities, I do not believe Guida can wear him down either on the feet or on the mat.
Trust me, I’m only distracted by hatred ... not blinded. Honest.
UFC on FOX 12 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Gilbert Burns -- Bet $50 to make $60.50
- Parlay: Tiago dos Santos and Dennis Bermudez -- Bet $40 to make $58.80
- Parlay: Dennis Bermudez and Gilbert Burns -- Bet $30 to make $49.20
Ready for a bit of the old ultra-violence? You better be.
See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FOX 12: "Lawler vs. Brown" results on fight night RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$353.68