Five rounds? Not likely.
Two elite Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight battle axes with a penchant for ending this early will do battle this Wednesday night (July 16, 2014) when Donald Cerrone faces Jim Miller in the main event of UFC Fight Night 45, which goes down at Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
Two more scrappy 155-pound standouts will clash in the co-main event when Edson Barboza takes on Evan Dunham in a clash of former "Cowboy" victims out to re-establish their claims as Lightweight elites.
It looks like a fun mid-week card; therefore, let's see if we can't turn it into a mid-week paycheck, too.
UFC Fight Night 45 Odds For The Under Card:
Gleison Tibau (-135) vs. Pat Healy (-105)
Leslie Smith (-140) vs. Jessamyn Duke (+120)
Aljamain Sterling (-180) vs. Hugo Viana (+150)
Jerrod Sanders (-150) vs. Yosdenis Cedeno (+110)
Claudia Gadelha (-425) vs. Tina Lahdemaki (+320)
Thoughts: I am a big Healy fan, so it pains me to say that I think Tibau is worth a look. So long as his will wasn’t destroyed by that knockout against Michael Johnson, his physical strength and takedown defense ought to win the day. Healy seems to struggle badly when he can’t get the takedown; he has a decent body attack but can’t impose that same level of attrition on the feet.
Against one of the men he is least likely to physically overpower in the division, I expect him to have quite a bit of trouble; therefore, a moderate bet on Tibau makes sense.
This one’s bit of a longshot, but I also think Viana might be worth a bit. I wasn’t terribly impressed by Sterling against Cody Gibson and Viana has both a very strong base and some real power in his hands. I believe he can avoid the takedown and should just edge him on the feet.
It’s about a 50-50 fight in my book and Viana is enough of an under dog to make that profitable.
UFC Fight Night 45 Odds For The Main Card:
Donald Cerrone (-270) vs. Jim Miller (+230)
Edson Barboza (-260) vs. Evan Dunham (+220)
Rick Story (-280) vs. Leonardo Mafra (+240)
Justin Salas (-135) vs. Joe Proctor (+115)
John Lineker (-290) vs. Alptekin Ozkilic (+245)
Alex White (-160) vs. Lucas Martins (+140)
Thoughts: Did alright playing favorites last week, so let’s try it again. I like the odds on Salas and Lineker.
Honestly, Proctor’s UFC career has been kind of forgettable to me. He seems like a decent, well-rounded fighter, but without any kind of flash. Salas has both a good wrestling game and rapidly-improving striking, plus quality wins over Rob Emerson and Joe Ellenberger.
He strikes me as better in most aspects of the game, making -135 a tantalizing line. Bank on "J-Bomb."
Yes, Lineker is almost a 3-1 favorite. He’s also a horrific style match up for Ozkilic. Lineker’s takedown defense is very solid and his crippling body attack should break down Ozkilic without too much trouble. If you want to add a little zest to a parlay, Lineker’s your man.
UFC Fight Night 45 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Hugo Viana: Bet $30 to make $45
- Parlay -- Gleison Tibau and John Lineker: Bet $40 to make $53.60
- Parlay -- Justin Salas and John Lineker: Bet $60 to make $80.40
Lots of fun fights, capped off by two of the nastiest finishers alive today in the 155-pound division. Not bad for Hump Day.
See you at the fights, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 45: "Cerrone vs. Miller" results on fight night RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$247.28