One last climb.
Both in the midst of rough stretches, it's likely do-or-die time for the title hopes of Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Roy Nelson, the two men who will collide in the main event of UFC Fight Night 39, which takes place this Friday afternoon (April 11, 2014) from du Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates.
In addition, Clay Guida will look to rebound from the first knockout loss of his career against Japanese veteran Tatsuya Kawajiri, who is currently riding a six-fight win streak, in the co-main event that will air online via Fight Pass.
The timing may be a bit inconvenient, but you know what'll cheer you right up? Money! Let's get you some:
UFC Fight Night 39 Odds For The Under Card:
Jim Alers (-260) vs. Alan Omer (+220)
Chris Camozzi (-135) vs. Andrew Craig (+115)
Thales Leites (-400) vs. Trevor Smith (+325)
Rani Yahya (-170) vs. Johnny Bedford (+150)
Jared Rosholt (-225) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (+185)
Thoughts: It is with great patriotic pride that I declare the best bets on this under card to be Americans; specifically, Bedford and Rosholt.
Picking someone with nine submission losses to beat an ADCC champ with 15 wins by tapout may seem like utter lunacy. It probably is, but hear me out. Yahya hasn’t cut to 135 pounds in almost four years and Bedford’s style is custom-made to tax his opponents’ cardio. Further, Yahya faded late against Mizuto Hirota and Josh Clopton, nearly costing him the fight in the former instance.
So long as Bedford doesn’t fight stupid, he’s got the goods to wear out Yahya and polish him off late. Bet accordingly.
Omielanczuk’s a fun fighter and a finisher, but he is also completely outclassed by Rosholt. That's because Omielanczuk's submission game is centered around top control, which he is very unlikely to achieve against Rosholt. Neither man excels on the feet, but Rosholt certainly excels in the grappling department, giving him free reign to choose his avenue of victory.
Use him to beef up low-profit bets.
UFC Fight Night 39 Odds For The Main Card:
Roy Nelson (-155) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+135)
Clay Guida (-130) vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri (+110)
Ryan LaFlare (-350) vs. John Howard (+290)
Beneil Dariush (-210) vs. Ramsey Nijem (+175)
Thoughts: "Minotauro" and the "Crusher" may be getting up there in age, but I see no reason for them to be under dogs.
Nelson still has a nuclear bomb of a right hand. He also struggled to land anything of note against Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier and has been consistently dominated in the clinch. Nog’s newfound dirty boxing has so far proven highly effective at compensating for his speed disadvantage and should work wonders against Nelson, who still struggles to maintain a high output after the first round. Plus, this is a five-round fight -- Nelson can barely handle three while Nog has never had an issue with long fights.
Finally, Minotauro has never lost two straight and is coming off a loss. Go straight-up on the old legend.
Is my undying hatred of Guida coloring my perception? Probably. The fact remains that Guida doesn’t beat people he can’t outwrestle and nobody at 145 pounds short of Chad Mendes outwrestles "Crusher." This is a guy who had his way with Josh Thomson on the mat. The best Guida can hope for is that his impotent flailing convinces the judges that he’s actually doing something, while Kawajiri chases him down trying to get the clinch. The Crusher’s chin has seen better days and there’s no telling how much longer he’ll still be able to compete at a high level. At this point in time, however, he’s still a powerhouse wrestler and one of the strongest men in the division.
Bank on it.
UFC Fight Night 39 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Johnny Bedford: Bet $40 to make $60
- Single bet -- Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira: Bet $30 to make $40.5
- Parlay -- Jared Rosholt and Tatsuya Kawajiri: Bet $40 to make $81.20
Your boss might not approve of you watching during work hours, but consider it a test of your situational awareness.
Be as the shadows, Maniacs ... inscrutable.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 39: "Nogueira vs. Nelson" results on fight afternoon RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$136.90