Will "The Poster Boy" nickname become self-fulfilling or will "The Mauler" claim another scalp?
We find out this Saturday (March 8, 2014) in the main event of UFC Fight Night 38, which goes down at O2 Arena in London, England, airing live online via Fight Pass digital network. Undefeated Jimi Manuwa will look to crack the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Top 10 Light Heavyweight ranks at the expense of former 205-pound title challenger Alexander Gustafsson, himself working toward another shot at the man he arguably defeated last September, Jon Jones.
In addition, a cracking Lightweight scrap is scheduled for the co-main event, with Michael Johnson gunning for his third straight victory against Melvin Guillard.
Let's see if we can't earn back the $9.99 you spent to watch this thing. Follow me below as we take a look at the latest UFC Fight Night 37: "Gustafsson vs. Manuwa" betting guide below:
UFC Fight Night 37 Odds For The Under Card:
Cyrille Diabate (-135) vs. Ilir Latifi (-105)
Luke Barnatt (-280) vs. Mats Nilsson (+200)
Brad Scott (-190) vs. Claudio Henrique da Silva (+150)
Roland Delorme (-130) vs. Davey Grant (-110)
Igor Araujo (-190) vs. Danny Mitchell (+150)
Louis Gaudinot (-180) vs. Phil Harris (+140)
Thoughts: The top and bottom of the under card are your gambling destinations, both in terms of position on the card of height of the combatants: Diabate and Gaudinot are your favorites of choice.
For all of Diabate’s flaws, among them an iffy chin and terrible ground game, his bout with Latifi is just such a physical mismatch that I find him worth betting on. He’s a full 10 inches taller than Latifi, who couldn’t even get inside on the 6’1" Mousasi. Latifi’s striking is rudimentary and he’s not skilled enough to disguise his shots, making his wrestling advantage a non-factor.
"Da Snake" takes this one, and at -135, it’s a bargain.
Even if we don’t go by their performances against a common opponent (John Lineker), I’m just not that impressed by Harris. He’s decent everywhere the fight goes, but doesn’t seem to have any particular edge over Gaudinot. As rough as Gaudinot’s losses were, he gave up a lot of size to Johnny Bedford and hit Tim Elliott with some shots that by all rights should have left him drooling on the canvas. I believe Louis is a better wrestler, better grappler, and better striker. Bet on it.
UFC Fight Night 37 Odds For The Main Card:
Alexander Gustafsson (-380) vs. Jimi Manuwa (+315)
Michael Johnson (-135) vs. Melvin Guillard (-105)
Brad Pickett (-600) vs. Neil Seery (+400)
Gunnar Nelson (-310) vs. Omari Akhmedov (+230)
Thoughts: For a second, I really considered recommending a bet on Guillard over Johnson. Then I remembered that he’s the most painfully inconsistent fighter in the division and Johnson alternates between being a monster and being amusingly helpless when taken down.
Leave it alone.
If you’re set on betting on one of these four fights, a little on Akhmedov might work. As fond as I am of Nelson, he’s undersized for 170 pounds and showed a worrying lack of striking defense in his match with Jorge Santiago. Akhmedov could crack at 185 pounds and I have little doubt he has the skills to punish Nelson’s poor head movement.
Of course, Nelson will eat his face if he scores the takedown, so don’t bet too heavily on the Dagestani.
Just a bit.
UFC Fight Night 37 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Cyrille Diabate: Bet $80 to make $59.25
- Parlay -- Cyrille Diabate and Louis Gaudinot: Bet $40 to make $68.40
- Single bet -- Omari Akhmedov: Bet $30 to make $69
Lot's of finishes on the horizon; hopefully, we'll see that shore this Saturday.
See you there, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 37: "'Gustafsson vs. Manuwa" results on fight afternoon RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: $96.10