It's time for another testosterone laden TUF Brazil bonanza, in which the UFC trots out all the guys who can't get a TEU in America so they can rampage over mismatched cans the organization can't sell on a PPV in the USA. That's a lot of fucking acronyms. WTF, eh?
Anyway, it's the third event of Season 19 on MMA Playground and despite going 17 for 22 on the first two cards (77% anti-shitpicking success rate) I'm sitting in 26th place. You bunch of hot bout-picking cunts. I hate you all.
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I like to think I pay a lot of attention to MMA. But I have no fucking clue who these two guys are. I might have a better chance of success flying to Thailand, drinking 12 beers, and playing ladyboy roulette while trying to pick up chicks in Bangkok. I'd like to think I'm picking Frankie based on my the theory he's going to hold Stringer down because the Euro has no takedown defense, but this is based solely on a fantasy I invented in my own head and has no basis in research, of which I did zero.
Barroso via UD
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Godofredo Castro (9-3, L2) vs Noad Lahat (7-0)
So a Jew and a Christian walk into a cage... No, but seriously folks, I'd like to pick "Pepey" by submission, but the kid has done an excellent job getting knocked the fuck out lately. He's going up against a random I've never heard of before, but he's an undefeated random with knockouts on his resume. That's pretty much good enough for me at this point. I think Castro's chin is about as strong as a China doll.
Lahat via TKO2
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Thiago "Bodao" has a propensity for having his lights shut out. We saw that in TUF Brazil and also when he got TKFO in his last fight. But he also hits really fucking hard and goes balls to the wall before he falls. Robertson isn't really a knockout artist and is more likely to work his submission game. Not fucking happening. Bodao is dropping down to 170 pounds where his knockout power is going to be even more fearsome.
Perpetuo via KO2
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Scott Jorgensen (14-8, L2) vs Jussier da Silva (15-3, L1)
I actually think Spotty Scotty is done. The kid has fought a murderers row of top contenders at 135 pounds, but he can't stop losing. Even dropping to Flyweight didn't help. Now he's going to try and take on one of the elite grapplers at midgetweight? He's good enough to avoid getting submitted but that's about it. Time for WSOF after this one.
Da Silva via UD
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Rony Markes (14-2, L1) vs Thiago Santos (8-2, L1)
If you watched TUF Brazil 2 (which fucking sucked because it had no subtitles on some episodes) then you know Santos is a scrub who kept getting second chances after losing. In his UFC debut he got finished inside of a minute by Cezar Ferreira. Rony Markes is a Nova Uniao high level BJJ black belt. This isn't trigonometry, bitches.
Markes via SUB1
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Chope looked decent against Max Holloway for about four minutes. And then he got punched in his bone rack ribs and nearly shit out the one extra pound of fat left on his skeletal frame. Brando is going to similarly put it on Chope early and often. He might survive the first round, but Diego is going to give the Brazilian fans the can crushing cheering they came to enjoy.
Brandao via TKO2
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Steven Siler (23-11, L1) vs Rony Bezerra (13-4, L1)
This is a hard fight to pick because Siler has decent standup and should give "Jason" a good battering on the feet. But he's not a knockout artist and he's not going to put Rony out like Jeremy Stephens did. Although Siler is pretty good surviving on the ground, Rony is on a different level once it gets there. I find it hard to believe Siler is going to escape this fight with his puckerhole intact.
Jason via SUB2
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Michael Prazeres (17-1, W1) vs Mairbek Taisumov (21-4, W4)
Nobody is giving Prazeres any chance in this fight, which just goes to show how fucking ridiculous sports betting can be. Taisumov is a -268 in the early betting lines, which is hard to understand because he looked like shit in his UFC debut. The guy went three rounds with Tae Hyun Bang in Singapore, whose career highlights include surviving three rounds against Jorge Masvidal and Takanori Gomi in 2008. Big fucking deal. Prazeres is 17-1, whose sole loss was a late replacement fight against Paulo Thiago in a weight class he doesn't compete. And he nearly beat the guy before gassing in the third.
Prazeres via UD
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You've seen this fight before. Villante is going to batter Fabio "Homer Simpson" Maldonado for the first round, get winded, get confused that Fabio doesn't get hurt, and then get hurt in the second, and destroyed in the third. It can't go down any other way. And it won't. The fans are going to lap this shit up like two girls and a cup... of ice cream.
Maldonado via UD
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This is another head scratcher. Literally nobody thinks Santos has a fucking chance in this one. Not even a pity pick. Personally, I think this is another case of people buying into the hype of winning streaks. Parke has been decent, but he hasn't been tested that much. Taking clown skeleton Colin Fletcher to a decision isn't really a vote of confidence in my mind. In fact, Parke's three UFC fights have resulted in 75 percent of his career decision wins. Santos, meanwhile, has nine finishes in his 12 wins, with his last three finishes coming before the end of the second round.
Santos via SUB1
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CB Dolloway (13-5, L1) vs Cezar Ferreira (7-3, W3)
It's no secret I despise Dolloway. He's got a douche face. He's always the hot bout. He always fucks me in these picks. Ferreira has a hell of a guillotine. Dolloway has been caught before. At least I'll go down cheering against him.
Ferreira via SUB2
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As far as I'm concerned, father time has caught up to Hendo and his one trick pony right hand. If Shogun manages to avoid the right hand for the first three rounds, the old man is going to gas out, fall down, and get beat the fuck up. Just like he did in rounds four and five last time. He's extremely hard to finish, even for a power puncher like Shogun. And although it seems crazy this fight will go five rounds again, it's hard to imagine either guy cracking the other's chin. By the time Hendo gasses out, Shogun will be too weak to do anything other than uselessly hammer fist his old man ass for the last 10 minutes.
Rua via UD