Sunday, (hopefully) bloody Sunday.
It's back to Brazil for the world's largest mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion this Sunday afternoon (March 23, 2014) when Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) rolls out "Shogun vs. Henderson 2" from Nelio Dias Gymnasium in Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil.
After putting on one of the best fights in recent memory, Pride FC superstars Mauricio "Shogun" Rua and Dan Henderson will slug it out once again in the five-round UFC Fight Night 38 main event. In addition, inaugural The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil" middleweight winner Cezar "Mutante" will take on C.B. Dollaway, while former TUF winners Norman Parke and Leonardo Santos likewise do battle.
And what better way to celebrate the day of rest than with violence AND gambling?
Let's check out the latest UFC Fight Night 38: "Shogun vs. Henderson 2" odds and betting guide:
UFC Fight Night 38 Odds For The Under Card:
Diego Brandao (-285) vs. Will Chope (+205)
Ronny Markes (-705) vs. Thiago Santos (+435)
Scott Jorgensen (-230) vs. Jussier Formiga (+170)
Kenny Robertson (-120) vs. Thiago Perpetuo (-120)
Noad Lahat (-230) vs. Godofredo Pepey (+170)
Francimar Barroso (-140) vs. Hans Stringer (EVEN)
Thoughts: I’m fond of Scott Jorgensen and, while annoying, Pepey is fun to watch. Sometimes, though, you’ve got to put aside your personal preferences in pursuit of that most noble of goals: Making money. Formiga and Lahat are the under card’s premiere underdog and favorite, respectively.
Formiga wasn’t once top of the heap at 125 pounds by accident and getting knocked out by John Dodson and Joseph Benavidez is a fate that would befall almost all other flyweights on the roster in the same position. Plus, Jorgensen looks to be in something of a slump lately and had issues with both Urijah Faber and John Albert’s submission games. Formiga’s got the best back control in the entire division and I figure he’ll get a chance to show it off; therefore, a mid-sized bet on the Brazilian makes sense.
In my opinion (and that of approximately all of the MMA media), Pepey should be winless (0-4) in UFC. In his last two bouts, he got pasted from guard, a position he’s often overeager to surrender. In short, he plays right into Lahat’s hands and I’d wager he isn’t quite slick enough to finish Lahat from his back. The AKA product should have a field day from top position, so I’d make him your heaviest wager of the afternoon/evening.
UFC Fight Night 38 Odds For The Main Card:
Mauricio Rua (-235) vs. Dan Henderson (+195)
Cezar Ferreira (-195) vs. C.B. Dollaway (+155)
Norman Parke (-185) vs. Leonardo Santos (+145)
Gian Villante (-160) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+120)
Mairbek Taisumov (-280) vs. Michel Prazeres (+200)
Rony Jason (-180) vs. Steven Siler (+140)
Thoughts: Though I consider him something of a novelty rather than a legitimate contender at this point, I feel there’s money to be made on Maldonado. I’m just not impressed at all by Villante -- his striking is lackluster and his wrestling nowhere near as dominant as his pedigree would suggest. The ease with which Donovan consistently landed on Villante bodes ill for him. Maldonado may have disproven the notion that he is an elite boxer, he’s a relentless bastard and I figure he’ll hurt Gian more than Gian hurts him.
A small bet on the Team Nogueira-trained product makes sense.
As far as favorites go, I’m still high enough on Rony Jason to recommend a bet on him. Siler is a handful wherever the fight goes, but that’s all ... a handful. He’s not overwhelming in any one area and I have Jason pegged as the superior grappler by a fair margin. Siler’s got a good clinch, but Jason’s power-punching ought to win the day if he elects to make it a striking match.
In other words, a chunk on Jason seems the right way to go.
UFC Fight Night 38 Best Bets:
- Single bet -- Jussier Formiga: Bet $30 to make $51
- Parlay -- Noad Lahat and Rony Jason: Bet $50 to make $61.50
- Single bet -- Fabio Maldonado: Bet $30 to make $36
I hate Sundays as much as the rest of you, so it's nice to have something to look forward to after your inevitable Saturday night bender.
See you there, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 38: "Shogun vs. Henderson 2" results on fight night RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: -$173.90