Time to put up or shut up.
In what could be the most legitimate "grudge match" we've seen in a long time, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight Champion Jon Jones will finally collide with Strikeforce Grand Prix winner Daniel Cormier in the main event of UFC 182.
Joining them inside MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, this Saturday (Jan. 3, 2015) are Donald Cerrone and Myles Jury, who could find themselves within one fight of a Lightweight title shot with a victory. In addition, Brad Tavares will look to snap a two-fight losing streak against Nate Marquardt, while Kyoji Horiguchi faces Louis Gaudinot in an intriguing Flyweight scrap.
All things considered, it looks like a terrific way to kick off 2015. Let's see if we can't get the gambling off on a similar high note.
UFC 182 Odds For The Under Card:
Danny Castillo (-240) vs. Paul Felder (+200)
Marcus Brimage (-210) vs. Cody Garbrandt (+175)
Shawn Jordan (-230) vs. Jared Cannonier (+190)
Evan Dunham (-550) vs. Rodrigo Damm (+425)
Omari Akhmedov (-160) vs. Mats Nilsson (+140)
Alexis Dufresne (-170) vs. Marion Reneau (+150)
Thoughts: I like the looks of one underdog and one favorite: Garbrandt and Akhmedov, respectively.
Brimage has made a UFC career out of derailing prospects, but it’s not like he’s had an easy time doing it. His lack of power makes it difficult for him to overwhelm people and he doesn’t have much of an offensive wrestling game. Garbrandt, though short on experience, packs quite a bit more power than his opponent and, on paper at least, is the better wrestler.
I think his firepower advantage should carry him to victory, and thus I recommend a small bet on him.
Nilsson is that most tragically common of prospects: The top control specialist without the wrestling to actually implement his top control. Worse, he’s a non-factor on the feet. I do not expect either of these issues to be rectified by his drop to 170 pounds, especially not against a powerhouse like Akhmedov.
The Dagestani is currently too reckless to reach the elite, but he should smash Nilsson on the feet. Bank on it.
Dufresne could be worth a look as well, but it’s completely contingent on her making weight. If she has her weight in check, there’s little stopping her from bulldozing Reneau in the early going. Wait until after Friday to make an investment.
UFC 182 Odds For The Main Card:
Jon Jones (-165) vs. Daniel Cormier (+145)
Donald Cerrone (-200) vs. Myles Jury (+170)
Nate Marquardt (-135) vs. Brad Tavares (+115)
Kyoji Horiguchi (-800) vs. Louis Gaudinot (+550)
Hector Lombard (-800) vs. Josh Burkman (+550)
Thoughts: For a second, my rebellious brain yelled at me to take Cerrone. Then I remembered that I have never ever successfully bet on a Cerrone fight and, despite how much he’s improved, I’m not risking it. Instead, let’s look at Tavares.
Marquardt had an excellent performance against James Te Huna. A few things curb my enthusiasm, though, namely that the fight snapped a four-fight streak of getting dropped at least once. Even Tarec Saffiedine -- a notoriously poor finisher -- managed to put "The Great" on his seat. I understand that the drop to 170 pounds was a likely culprit, but that’s a bad sign, especially since he’s 35 years old.
For all of Tavares’ faults, he’s still the kind of aggressive grinder that Marquardt has struggled with in the past and I don’t trust his jaw at all. Therefore, a moderate bet on Tavares seems wise.
Before we get to the best bets, I want to make a statement. I ended 2014 at a deficit and you have my full apologies. Something needs to change, so I’m laying down some ground rules:
- We will start with $200
- No parlays greater than two fighters and no more than one parlay per event
- No fighters shall be both in a parlay and bet on individually.
Let’s see how we do in 2015.
UFC 182 Best Bets:
- Parlay -- Omari Akhmedov and Alexis Dufresne*: Bet $40 to make $63.20
- Single bet -- Cody Garbrandt: Bet $30 to make $52.50
- Single bet -- Brad Tavares: Bet $30 to make $34.50
*If Dufresne does not make weight, replace with a single bet on Akhmedov.
Jon Jones vs. Daniel Cormier is finally happening. Here's hoping nothing goes wrong between now and then.
See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Final Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: $-146.74