Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) strawweight contenders Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza will compete for the first-ever 115-pound strap tonight (Fri., Dec. 12, 2014) at The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) 20 Finale inside the Palms Casino Resort in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Namajunas stormed through her competition on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF). She finished each of her opponents via submission, with only number two-ranked seed Joanne Calderwood making it to the second round.
Though Esparza did not win quite as dramatically as Namajunas, the tournament's favorite did progress past each of her opponents without much issue. Now, the former Invicta FC champion will look to carry her reign over to the world's premiere mixed martial arts (MMA) organization.
Let's take a look at the keys to victory for each woman.
Rose Namajunas
Record: 2-1
Key Wins: Joanne Calderwood* (TUF 20), Randa Markos* (TUF 20), Emily Kagan (Invicta FC 4)
Key Losses: Tecia Torres (Invicta FC 6)
Keys to Victory: Namajunas is a Tae Kwon Doe black belt with strong high kicks. Though she hasn't shown much knockout power in her professional career, Namajunas is constantly damaging her opponent with unpredictable leg strikes or sudden bursts of punches.
On the mat, Namajunas really shines. She's highly aggressive from her back and constantly looking to finish the fight via submission. It certainly helps that she's fearless with her grappling, as evidenced by her flying triangle victory.
For Namajunas, this bout will very likely be about capitalizing on any opportunities to finish Esparza that arise. Though it's possible that she could out-strike Esparza and consistently defend takedowns for a decision, it's much more likely that Esparza will force a grappling match and try to win via top control.
To avoid this, Namajunas needs to be active with her high kicks and enforce her lengthy range. Since Esparza isn't particularly adept at closing the distance with her punches and transitioning into shots, Namajunas should be able to strand her at a range where Esparza is not effective.
If that happens, Esparza will likely still shoot but from quite a distance away. Against a submission wrestling like "Thug Rose," that won't work. As Esparza goes for a poor shot, Namajunas can attempt to reverse position or directly counter with a submission.
Carla Esparza
Record: 9-2
Key Wins: Tecia Torres* (TUF 20), Jessica Penne* (TUF 20), Felice Herrig (XFC 15)
Key Losses: Jessica Aguilar (Bellator 46)
Keys to Victory: Esparza is a powerful wrestler with an excellent top game. Her boxing skills are developing nicely, but she's still primarily a grappler.
A large portion of this bout will be determined by Esparza's ability to close the distance. At the kicking range, she's quite out-gunned. However, she can use Namajunas' willingness to throw unusual high kicks against her.
If Esparza circles around a side kick or moves in mid-spin, she'll be in a position to wrestle while Namajunas is off-balanced. In this scenario, Esparza will almost certainly be able to land her powerful double leg.
Additionally, Esparza should look to cut off the cage and trap Namajunas against the fence. From this position, it will be much hard for Namajunas' to get her kicks off, and will also make it easier for Esparza to force a grappling exchange.
Once on the mat, Esparza obviously needs to careful of Namajunas' submission game. However, she can also use Namajunas' aggression against her, as throwing up so many submissions and keeping an open guard does make it easier to pass.
If Esparza is able to move into side control or even half guard, she'll be able to shut down much of Namajunas' offense.
Bottom Line: Though neither woman is particularly experienced, both are worthy contenders of the strawweight strap.
Namajunas has a huge opportunity on her hands. She's just 22 years old with three professional fights, but "Thug Rose" is already something of a fan favorite, in addition to being a talented fighter. If she can take the belt, it would be huge for her -- especially in terms of exposure and potential earnings.
Though a loss would put a damper on Namajunas' hype, she would not lose her following. Within a year or two, it's more than possible that Namajunas could earn her way back to the belt.
Esparza was the favorite to win this tournament and looked it throughout. However, she's now the underdog to a fast rising star. This is most certainly Esparza's opportunity to show that she was deserving of all the acclaim that followed her onto TUF.
A loss would definitely hurt. In addition to losing her only opportunity to become the inaugural champ, Esparza would be losing to a younger fighter with less experience. Worse still, Namajunas seems to be improving at a quicker rate than the former Invicta FC champ.
Will Rose Namajunas pull off another highlight reel victory or can Carla Esparza reassert her dominance on the division?