Five rounds of potential mixed martial arts (MMA) mayhem.
Two top-ranked Featherweight contenders with a penchant for burying their foes in activity will duke it out in the Lone Star State this Saturday (Nov. 22, 2014) when Cub Swanson attempts to secure a 145-pound title shot at the expense of former Lightweight champ Frankie Edgar.
The two headline UFC Fight Night 57, which will emanate from Frank Erwin Center in Austin, Texas, and also feature an excellent 155-pound match between unexpected contender Bobby Green and the destructive Edson Barboza. In addition, Chico Camus and Brad Pickett will battle way down south at 125 pounds, while streaking big men Jared Rosholt and Alexey Oleinik clash at Heavyweight.
It looks like a fun FOX Sports 1 card all around. Let's see if there's anything profitable hiding under the surface:
UFC Fight Night 57 Odds For The Under Card:
Ruslan Magomedov (-205) vs. Josh Copeland (+165)
Luke Barnatt (-325) vs. Roger Narvaez (+250)
James Vick (-215) vs. Nick Hein (+170)
Yves Edwards (-195) vs. Akbarh Arreola (+160)
Paige VanZant (-150) vs. Kailin Curran (+120)
Doo Ho Choi (-365) vs. Juan Manuel Puig (+275)
Thoughts: Honestly, not seeing terribly much here. Curran seems like a decent underdog bet, but considering that we haven’t seen VanZant in action for more than one year -- and the fact that she is both young and fighting out of a quality camp in Alpha Male -- there’s no telling how much she’s improved.
If you want a relative lock to buff your parlays, though, you could do worse than Choi.
Puig is in over his head to a degree that is almost comical. Choi is a blue-chip prospect who has left a trail of destruction in his wake. I expect Choi to absolutely demolish him and, while I’ve said stuff like that before and wound up with enough egg on my face to feed a family of four, I’m pretty confident here.
Choi seems like a solid parlay anchor.
UFC Fight Night 57 Odds For The Main Card:
Frankie Edgar (-240) vs. Cub Swanson (+200)
Edson Barboza (-115) vs. Bobby Green (-105)
Brad Pickett (-210) vs. Chico Camus (+175)
Jared Rosholt (-220) vs. Alexey Oleinik (+180)
Joseph Benavidez (-400) vs. Dustin Ortiz (+310)
Matt Wiman (-195) vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg (+160)
Thoughts: I like a pair of underdogs and one moderate favorite here -- Swanson and Camus look primed to defy the oddsmakers and Rosholt isn’t getting enough credit.
Edgar’s accomplishments are undoubtedly excellent, but I’m not convinced he’s done enough to earn his elite standing at Featherweight. Since dropping, he’s been soundly beaten by Jose Aldo, gone life-and-death with Charles Oliveira, and beaten the broken husk of B.J. Penn. Plus, save for Penn, he hasn’t beaten an elite striker in quite a while.
Swanson can match his manic pace, take away his head movement with the crushing kicks that Ben Henderson used so effectively, and should be a pain to keep down. I am confident that Swanson can give Edgar a rude awakening and, as such, recommend putting money down on him.
It’s not just Pickett’s physical wear-and-tear, exacerbated by the cut to 125 pounds alongside his 36 years of age and long career of slugging it out, that makes me pick Camus. His technique has degraded considerably -- he’s painfully predictable at this point. Watch his fight with Neil Seery, which I felt he lost, and see how often he enters with a weave to one side, pause, and hook. It’s gotten him creamed by Eddie Wineland and Michael McDonald and, while Camus lacks that kind of concussive force, he’s still got the skills to exploit that flaw. Camus should be able to hold his own in the wrestling and control the fight standing en route to the upset decision win.
Oleinik’s made me look stupid before against Anthony Hamilton and is riding a solid win streak. I just believe his chances of winding up on top against Rosholt are slim and none. Rosholt holds a sizeable wrestling advantage, is almost 10 years younger and has the cardio to stifle him all night. I’ve long since learned not to bank on a sub from the bottom. And despite Oleinik’s skills, the odds of him earning the tap are remote.
Rosholt is another good parlay anchor.
UFC Fight Night 57 Best Bets:
- Parlay -- Doo Ho Choi and Jared Rosholt: Bet $60 to make $51.28
- Parlay -- Jared Rosholt and Chico Camus: Bet $30 to make $90
- Single bet -- Cub Swanson: Bet $30 to make $60
Plenty of fun fights ... and it's all free. Looks like a quality weekend to me.
See you there, Maniacs!
Running Profit For 2014 Based On This Column: $126.11