After a three-week (and much needed) break from the mixed martial arts (MMA) business, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) is back on pay-per-view (PPV) with UFC 179: "Aldo vs. Mendes 2," featuring a couple of fights you probably care about, along with a couple of fights you probably don't.
Leading the charge is the featherweight rematch pitting reigning division kingpin Jose Aldo against division No. 1 contender Chad Mendes, in a 145-pound headliner that caps off this Saturday's night's (Oct. 25, 2014) action inside Maracanãzinho Gymnasium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
"Money" has definitely evolved as a fighter ... but enough to succeed where he failed at UFC 142?
In the co-main event, Glover Teixeira looks to rebound from a disappointing loss to Jon Jones back at UFC 172 in Baltimore, Maryland, the same event that saw Phil Davis turn in a less than "Wonderful" performance against Anthony Johnson.
Some other guys are fighting, too, and I will type some words about them.
145 lbs.: Jose "Junior" Aldo (24-1) vs. Chad "Money" Mendes (16-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Nearly three years after they first did the dance back at UFC 142, Jose Aldo and Chad Mendes will run it back for another 145-pound title fight. Looking back at their first go-round and comparing it to this weekend's slugfest, not much has changed.
And if you're thinking "except 'Money's' striking," then I feel sad for you.
Mendes did what all great fighters do, and that's pick himself up after a devastating loss and come back stronger. But this idea that he's suddenly Floyd Mayweather is laughable. Has he improved his hands? No question about it. Is he now the kind of striker who can kickbox with Aldo?
Say it out loud, and laugh with me.
Of his four post-Aldo knockouts, Darren Elkins and Clay Guida were probably the more impressive of the bunch. But keep in mind that Elkins was also finished by Ted Worthington, who's enjoying a torrid 2-15 run on the regional circuit. And Guida, for all his grit, was floored with a right hand by Kenny Florian at UFC 107.
Ready for the punchline? Mendes should still win this fight.
Heck, he could even get a late finish. But the path to victory is the same now as it was in 2012, and that's wrestling. Even with his improved timing and Bang Ludwig-inspired footwork, his striking is still very basic and as quick as he is, Aldo is quicker.
Fight fire with fire? Sure, if you like smelling salts.
"Money" may not have a lot of takedown success in the first and second round, but he doesn't need to. What he does need, is to keep the pressure on and make the champion work -- hard -- because the Brazilian is basically a grappling dummy in the second half of the fight.
That's when it's time to let the hands go.
I'm pretty sure Mendes knows this and even with all his pre-fight bravado, I think somewhere deep down both he -- and his coaches -- know this fight is won with wrestling. Unless they are still riding that high from TJ Dillashaw's upset win over Renan Barao and expect this fight to play out in similar fashion.
For their sake, I certainly hope not.
Final prediction: Mendes def. Aldo via technical knockout
205 lbs.: Glover Teixeira (22-3) vs. Phil "Mr. Wonderful" Davis (12-2)
Nostradumbass predicts: In the rare occasion that I actually research a fighter and don't just make this shit up as I go along, I like to look back at each individual performance and try to remember what my initial reaction was immediately following the fight.
I did that here, and that's when it hit me.
I don't think I've enjoyed a single performance from Phil Davis. I mean like, ever. I missed his one good showing, a 2010 submission win over future contender Alexander Gustafsson, because I was drunk in a Portuguese cathouse and couldn't find my pants.
Sigh ... good times.
Anyway, the fact that Davis is ranked No. 6 in the 205-pound shark tank is a testament to his athleticism. He's probably the best pure wrestler in the division, as well as the worst pure striker. How do you go 11 straight fights inside the Octagon and not score a single win by knockout or technical knockout? Even by accident?
Even Demian Maia grabbed one thanks to Dong Hyun Kim's self-destructing rib.
That's why Davis is never going to be champion. If you don't have any mixed in your martial arts, you're doomed, evidenced by his loss to Anthony Johnson. As talented as he is, "Mr. Wonderful" has no Plan B. Now we have to figure out if Plan A is enough to stymie Glover Teixeira.
The Brazilian is a powerful puncher but has sloppy defense, which is why Fabio Maldonado and Ryan Bader were able to land clean in their respective fights. In addition, Teixeira's UFC wins are largely won on the ground, where he utilizes next-level jiu-jitsu and frightening ground-and-pound.
But for the most part, his opponents have been willing to engage.
It will be interesting to see how Teixeira deals with the frustration of playing cat-and-mouse with his opponent. Davis has a long, rangy reach and can use his limited striking to flick a jab or kick from great distances. Even if G-Tex wants to capitalize with a takedown, he's too far out.
Rashad Evans had success using that strategy, but Teixeira is not the explosive wrestler that "Suga" is.
That worries me heading into this co-main event because it's only three rounds. That means Davis just has to win two of them and he doesn't even need to do a whole lot of damage. He just needs to execute the same gameplan he does in most of his wins, and that's score enough points to impress the judges without getting KTFO.
Why not? It got him this far...
Final prediction: Davis def. Teixeira via split decision
205 lbs.: Fabio "Iron Hillbilly" Maldonado (21-7) vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3)
Nostradumbass predicts: We should probably just go ahead and say it: Fabio Maldonado is not an MMA fighter. Heck, he's not even a light heavyweight. The Brazilian is a fat middleweight boxer with a frightening propensity for absorbing damage.
But he sure knows how to put on a fun fight.
The aptly nicknamed "Iron Hillbilly" is just 4-4 inside the Octagon and like the Diaz brothers, doesn't possess one-punch knockout power. Instead, he puts a serious hurtin' on his opponents with his insane volume of strikes. It's not uncommon for Maldonado to reach triple digits, like he did against Roger Hollett and Gian Villante.
Unfortunately, he has the ground game of a newborn calf.
That could come back to bite him in the Brazilian arse against Hans Stringer, who isn't well known among stateside fans but has been running the table on the international circuit for nearly a decade. After a pit stop in World Series of Fighting (WSOF), the Dutchman made a forgettable debut at UFC Fight Night 36 earlier this year in Brazil, outpointing Francimar Barroso by way of split decision.
Yawn.
Stringer has 17 finishes in 22 wins with a nice blend of knockouts (nine) and submissions (eight). That's the mark of an experienced MMA fighter and I get the feeling that after getting his ribs roasted for the first round or so, he's going to be like "Fuck this" and just take the fight south.
He may not get the finish, but he'll stay busy enough to keep it grounded until the bell.
Final prediction: Stringer def. Maldonado via unanimous decision
145 lbs.: Darren Elkins (17-4) vs. Lucas "Mineiro" Martins (15-1)
Nostradumbass predicts: Darren Elkins has been competing under the ZUFFA banner for over four years, has appeared in 10 straight UFC fights, and the only thing I could remember about him prior to looking up his record was his facial expression when Duane Ludwig's ankle exploded in Colorado.
If you too, would like to make that face, click here.
Point being, if he was going to make some noise at 145 pounds, the gritty-but-aging Indianan would have done it by now, which explains why he has yet to crack the top 10 of his division. That, and a couple of untimely losses against better competition.
That doesn't leave me with a warm, fuzzy feeling heading into fight night.
Lucas Martins had a rough start to his UFC career, imploding in the first round against Edson Barboza back when the promotion was still on FX. But since then, "Mineiro" has gone on a three-fight tear that includes three violent finishes. Coupled with his submission skills, his quick turnaround makes it hard to pick against him.
For my money, it's not if Martin wins, but rather if he gets the finish.
Final prediction: Martins def. Elkins via unanimous decision
155 lbs.: Beneil Dariush (8-1) vs. Diego Ferreira (11-0)
Nostradumbass predicts: The absolute worst thing in MMA is when two talented ground fighters turn what could be a compelling chess match into a sloppy kickboxing bout. I'm praying that's not the case when Beneil Dariush gets crackin' against Diego Ferreira.
When was the last time you saw two devastating strikers go to the ground and work for submissions?
It's still early for both of these talented lightweights, so trying to be analytic about what they can and can't do inside the Octagon is tough. What I do know, is that by the laws of MMA math, Dariush is getting KTFO because he was punched out by Ramsey Nijem, who in turn, got stopped by Ferreira.
Nijem beat Dariush, and Ferreira beat Nijem, so that makes Michael Bisping the lineal middleweight champion.
Anyway, I'm going with the Nostradumbass tried-and-true method of fight predictions for this PPV curtain jerker. One fighter is undefeated, while the other is not. Hardly a scientific method of predicting UFC fights, but you didn't come here for science.
Now that I think of it, why did you come here?
Final prediction: Ferreira def. Darisuh via unanimous decision
That's a wrap.
For previews and predictions on the preliminary card fights click here and here. To see all the odds and betting lines for UFC 179 click here and remember to come check us out after the show for all the latest results, recaps and coverage of "Aldo vs. Mendes 2."
What do you think? Now it's your turn ... let us have it in the comments section and share your thoughts and picks for tomorrow night's event.