FanPost

UFC 169 Shake Up: Behind the Records of Barao/Faber II

Evening Maniacs,


With announcement that Dominick Cruz being injured...again.... and Urijah Faber stepping into either the Co-Main or Main event slot opposite Renan Barao at UFC 169 on February 1st, I thought I would write up a test of my idea for a break down of upcoming events using nothing but the raw data, attempting to leave my opinion and prediction of the fight out of it.

This is a fight to be excited about (ironically in my opinion), and doesn't really hurt the card that much.

Fighter Breakdown of Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber II

FIGHTER Wins Loss Draw WIN % OF FIGHTS FINISH % OF FIGHTS (T)KO SUB UFC STRIKING ACC: 36%
RENAN BARAO 31 1 0 97% 68.00% 7 14 UFC STRIKING DEF: 67%
LAST FIVE FIGHTS 5 0 0 ORTHODOX HEIGHT: 5'6" REACH 70 UFC TAKEDOWN ACC: 55%
UFC/WEC RECORD 8 0 0 LAST FIGHT: 09/21/13 AGE 26 UFC TAKEDOWN DEF: 95%
FIGHTER RECORD OVERALL Wins Loss Draw NOTES FIGHTER RECORD TOF Wins Loss Draw NOTES
JOAO DE SOUZA 33 16 2 (LOSS) JOAO DE DOUZA 0 0 0 (LOSS)
MELK FREITAS 0 2 0
MELK FREITAS 0 0 0
ANISTAVIO DE FIGUEIREDO 17 9 0
ANISTAVIO DE FIGUEIREDO 2 0 0
DANDE DANDE 0 1 0
DANDE DANDE 0 0 0
GLEISON MENEZES 3 9 0
GLEISON MENEZES 2 2 0
KAIO DE FREITAS 1 5 0
KAIO DE FREITAS 0 1 0
RONY JASON 13 4 0
RONY JASON 2 0 0
JANAILSON LIMA 32 14 0
JANAILSON LIMA 9 2 0
CARLOS HEIDE 13 8 0
CARLOS HEIDE 5 2 0
ERINALDO RODRIGUES 9 7 0
ERINALDO RODRIGUES 4 2 0
DANILO NORONHA 7 11 0
DANILO NORONHA 1 0 0
CLAUDEMIR SOUZA 7 7 0 1NC (NO CONTEST) CLAUDEMIR SOUZA 3 2 0 (NO CONTEST)
WILLIAM VIANNA 16 8 0 1NC VILLIAM VIANNA 8 4 0
RONALDO LIMA JR 9 6 0
RONALDO LIMA JR 5 1 0
JETRON AZEVEDO 3 4 0
JETRON AZEVEDO 1 1 0
JOSE DE MELO 14 11 0 1NC JOSE DE MELO 0 4 0 1NC
WILLIAM PORFIRIO 3 6 0
WILLIAM PORFIRIO 3 2 0
ROGERIO SILVA DE SOUZA 12 4 0
ROGERIO SILVA DE SOUZA 3 1 0
ALEXANDRE PINHEIRO 7 4 0
ALEXANDRE PINHEIRO 3 0 0
ANDRE LUIS DE OLIVEIRA 14 8 1
ANDRE LUIS DE OLIVEIRA 6 3 1
JURANDIR SARDINHA 15 7 1 1NC JURANDIR SARDINHA 7 1 0
PAULO DANTAS 24 9 1
PAULO DANTAS 17 5 0
MARCIO NUNES 5 7 0
MARCIO NUNES 2 2 0
JORGE ENCISO 6 8 2
JORGE ENCISO 5 5 2
SERGIO SILVA RODRIGUES 11 5 0
SERGIO SILVA RODRIGUES 6 2 0
ANTHONY LEONE 13 6 0 WEC DEBUT ANTHONY LEONE 8 0 0 WEC DEBUT
CHRIS CARIASO 15 5 0
CHRIS CARIASO 10 1 0
COLE ESCOVEDO 17 9 0 UFC DEBUT COLE ESCOVEDO 17 6 0 UFC DEBUT
BRAD PICKETT 23 8 0
BRAD PICKETT 20 5 0
SCOTT JORGENSEN 14 8 0
SCOTT JORGENSEN 13 4 0
URIJAH FABER 30 7 0 UFC INT BW TITLE WIN URIJAH FABER 26 5 0 UFC INT BW TITLE WIN
MICHAEL MCDONALD 16 3 0 UFC INT BW TITLE DEF MICHAEL MCDONALD 15 1 0 UFC INT BW TITLE DEF
EDDIE WINELAND 20 9 1 UFC INT BW TITLE DEF EDDIE WINELAND 20 8 1 UFC INT BW TITLE DEF
TOTALS: 422 235 8 66.00% TOTALS: 223 72 4 75.00%
AVERAGE: 12.78 7.12 0.24
AVERAGE: 6.75 2.18 0.12
UFC/WEC TOTALS: 148 55 1 73.00% UFC/WEC TOTALS: 129 30 1 81.00%
UFC/WEC AVERAGE: 18.5 6.87 0.12
UFC/WEC AVERAGE: 16.12 3.75 0.12

Barao's opponents have been both experienced and highly skilled based on the percentages seen here. With an average winning rate of 81% at the time fight and 16-4 record, Barao hasn't had a cake walk as the UFC's Interim and now Undisputed Bantamweight Champion.

He has finished a decent 68% of his wins with 14 submissions in 31 professional wins, including submissions over Brad Pickett and Michael McDonald in the UFC. Even with his Spinning Back Kick win over Eddie Wineland in his most recent defense, Barao's Significant Striking Accuracy is fairly low at 36% according to Fight Metric.

However, in that fight it was nearly double his average which suggests his striking could be improving at a rapid rate, it was an impressive 61%, landing 28 of 45 significant strikes, compared to just 29% in his first fight against Urijah Faber at UFC 149. Another impressive stat for Barao is his 95% Takedown Defense rate which is even higher than Jose Aldos.

FIGHTER Wins Loss Draw WIN % OF FIGHTS FINISH % OF FIGHTS (T)KO SUB UFC STRIKING ACC: 43%
URIJAH FABER 30 6 0 83.00% 80.00% 7 17 UFC STRIKING DEF: 63%
LAST FIVE FIGHTS 4 1 0 ORTHODOX HEIGHT: 5'6" REACH 69 UFC TAKEDOWN ACC: 36%
UFC RECORD 6 2 0 LAST FIGHT: 09/21/13 AGE 34 UFC TAKEDOWN DEF: 59%
FIGHTER RECORD OVERALL Wins Loss Draw NOTES FIGHTER RECORD TOF Wins Loss Draw NOTES
JAY VALENCIA 2 4 0
JAY VALENCIA 1 2 0
GEORGE ADKINS 2 8 0
GEORGE ADKINS 1 2 0
DAVID VELASQUEZ 10 10 0
DAVID VELASQUEZ 9 7 0
DEL HAWKINS 22 16 0
DEL HAWKINS 17 8 0
RAMI BOUKAI 2 2 0 KOTC DEBUT RAMI BOUKAI 2 1 0 KOTC DEBUT
EBEN KANESHIRO 14 10 0 KOTC BW TITLE WIN EBEN KANESHIRO 4 1 0 KOTC BW TITLE WIN
DAVID GRANADOS 5 4 1
DAVID GRANADOS 1 0 0
HIROYUKI ABE 8 15 3 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF HIROYUKI ABE 5 6 2 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF
TYSON GRIFFIN 16 7 0 (LOSS) TYSON GRIFFIN 2 0 0 (LOSS)
SHAWN BIAS 14 9 0 1NC KOTC BW TITLE DEF SHAWN BIAS 3 1 0 KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE
CHARLES BENNETT 26 28 2
CHARLES BENNETT 16 10 2
IVAN MENJIVAR 25 11 0
IVAN MENJIVAR 17 4 0
COLE ESCOVEDO 17 9 0 WEC DEBUT FW TITLE WIN COLE ESCOVEDO 11 1 0 WEC DEBUT FW TITLE WIN
CHARLIE VALENCIA 12 7 0 KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE CHARLIE VALENCIA 7 0 0 KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE
NAOYA UEMATSU 15 8 2
NAOYA UEMATSU 14 5 2
ENOCH WILSON 16 9 2
ENOCH WILSON 8 1 0
BIBIANO FERNANDES 15 3 0 KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE BIBIANO FERNANDES 1 0 0 KOTC BW TITLE DEFENSE
JOE PEARSON 43 19 1 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE JOE PEARSON 17 7 1 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE
DOMINICK CRUZ 19 1 0 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE DOMINICK CRUZ 9 0 0 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE
CHANCE FARRAR 8 3 0 1NC WEC FW TITLE DEF CHANCE FARRAR 5 0 0 1NC WEC FW TITLE DEF
JEFF CURRAN 34 16 1 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE JEFF CURRAN 29 8 2 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE
JENS PULVER 27 19 1 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE JENS PULVER 22 8 1 WEC FW TITLE DEFENSE
MIKE BROWN 26 9 0 WEC FW TITLE LOSS MIKE BROWN 19 4 0 WEC FW TITLE LOSS
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO 21 4 0
RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO 15 1 0
JOSE ALDO 23 1 0 WEC FW TITLE FIGHT LOSS JOSE ALDO 16 1 0 WEC FW TITLE FIGHT LOSS
TAKEYA MIZUGAKI 19 7 2
TAKEYA MIZUGAKI 13 4 2
EDDIE WINELAND 20 9 1 UFC DEBUT EDDIE WINELAND 18 6 1 UFC DEBUT
DOMINICK CRUZ 19 1 0 UFC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS DOMINICK CRUZ 17 1 0 UFC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS
BRIAN BOWLES 10 3 0
BRIAN BOWLES 10 1 0
RENAN BARAO 31 1 0 1NC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS RENAN BARAO 28 1 0 1NC BW TITLE FIGHT LOSS
IVAN MENJIVAR 25 11 0
IVAN MENJIVAR 25 9 0
SCOTT JORGENSEN 14 8 0
SCOTT JORGENSEN 14 6 0
IURI ALCANTARA 28 5 0 1NC IURI ALCANTARA 28 4 0 1NC
MICHAEL MCDONALD 16 3 0
MICHAEL MCDONALD 16 2 0
TOTALS: 604 280 16 67.00% TOTALS: 420 112 13 77.00%
AVERAGE: 17.76 8.23 0.47
AVERAGE: 12.35 3.29 0.38
UFC TOTALS: 163 41 1 80.00% UFC TOTALS: 156 30 1 83.00%
UFC AVERAGE: 20.375 5.125 0.125
UFC AVERAGE: 19.5 3.75 0.125

Faber has had quite a run of competition since his debut in 2003 and in particular since his entry into the UFC. Considering that he is 6-2 against opponents with an 83% win rate is excellent. His opponents have also been very experienced at 19-4. The numbers suggest that Faber's opponents have actually been "better" than those fighting Barao.

But that's why this is just the numbers and not the whole picture. At UFC 149 Barao handily defeated Faber by unanimous decision after 25 minutes.

It's worth noting that since Faber's loss to Barao in July 2012, his significant striking accuracy has been 61% (193 of 312)over 4 fights and an overall striking accuracy of 71% (334 of 470).

Barao's have been 34% (253 of 746) and 37% (286 of 781). Barao dominated the striking in the first fight. I'm curious to see what happens.

Well that's what I was able to find behind the records of these two elite MMA fighters. Post your predictions and discuss what all these numbers mean.

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