While the king is away, the rabble will scrabble.
Since Anthony Pettis' body has betrayed him once more, his last victim and former 155-pound champion, Ben Henderson, will lock horns in his stead when he collides with Josh Thomson in the main event of UFC on Fox 10, which takes place this weekend (Sat., Jan. 25, 2014) from United Center in Chicago, Illinois.
The primtetime mixed martial arts (MMA) special will also feature a Heavyweight clash between aspiring contenders, Brazilian veteran Gabriel Gonzaga and rising prospect Stipe Miocic, in the co-main event of the evening. In addition, Donald Cerrone will be in action for the fifth time since 2012, taking on former Jungle Fight champion Adriano Martins.
All told, it's a solid free card from "Windy City." Let's see if we can't turn it into a net gain as we explore the latest UFC on FOX 10 betting odds below:
UFC On FOX 10 Odds For The Under Card:
Sergio Pettis (-170) vs. Alex Caceres (+130)
Eddie Wineland (-380) vs. Yves Jabouin (+260)
Chico Camus (-210) vs. Yaotzin Meza (+160)
Hugo Viana (-350) vs. Ramiro Hernandez (+250)
Daron Cruickshank (-260) vs. Mike Rio (+180)
Mike Rhodes (-265) vs. George Sullivan (+185)
Walt Harris (-415) vs. Nikita Krylov (+295)
Thoughts: To be frank, I’m not seeing much value here. The guys I’m most confident in (Wineland and Harris) are too favored to make them good individual plays and the underdog with the best shot at an upset, Caceres, isn’t a big enough underdog.
Therefore, if I had to pick the best combination of likelihood of victory and value, I’d say it was Camus.
It’s difficult to ascertain Meza’s abilities based on his UFC run -- getting blown to bits by Chad Mendes happens to everyone, as does getting nearly submitted by John Albert before the latter’s cardio and ring IQ bite him in the rear. Still, Camus appears the more overpowering grappler and is a sufficiently-skilled top control artist to steer clear of Meza’s attacks.
Lumping Camus in with Wineland might not be a bad move.
UFC On FOX 10 Odds For The Main Card:
Ben Henderson (-270) vs. Josh Thomson (+230)
Stipe Miocic (-240) vs. Gabriel Gonzaga (+200)
Donald Cerrone (-265) vs. Adriano Martins (+185)
Jeremy Stephens (-170) vs. Darren Elkins (+130)
Thoughts: As is, I mostly feel the same way about the main card as I do about the under card, although Miocic’s power and resiliency (remember how much of a beating Struve had to put on him) -- combined with Gonzaga’s below-average chin -- make him a decent favorite play.
If the odds tilt a little more in Cerrone’s favor, though, you might consider putting some down on Martins.
I’ve learned never to make a Cerrone fight my make-or-break bet of the evening; therefore, if you’re going to bet on Martins, make it small and don’t connect it with any other plays. Still, Martins is an absolute giant of a Lightweight with big power in his left hand and an A+ top game. If the Cowboy" who fought Pettis and Diaz shows up, he’ll get murked. If the "Cowboy" who mauled Evan Dunham shows up, Martins is screwed.
In other words, treat it as a 50/50 chance and statistics say you’ll come out ahead betting Martins.
UFC On FOX 10 Best Bets:
- Parlay -- Eddie Wineland and Chico Camus: Bet $58 to make $50
- Single bet -- Adriano Martins: Bet $30 to make $55.50
- Parlay -- Eddie Wineland, Walt Harris and Stipe Miocic: Bet $30 to make $36.60
We've got a weekend off to prepare for the big betting game, Super Bowl 48. There are certainly worse ways to spend it than watching UFC on FOX 10.
See you there, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FOX 10: "Henderson vs. Thomson" results on fight night RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.