Chael Sonen vai morrer?!?!?!?
After a hard-fought loss to Alexander Gustafsson, Pride FC legend Mauricio Rua is the next Brazilian to take a swing at 205-pound division brashest mixed martial arts (MMA) fighter, Chael Sonnen, when the pair collide in the main event of UFC Fight Night 26, which takes place this weekend (Sat., Aug. 17, 2013) from TD Bank Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.
The New England-based card will be co-headlined by a clash between two of the Heavyweight division's biggest bruisers as Alistair Overeem looks to rebound from his embarrassing knockout loss to Antonio Silva against Hawaii's Travis Browne.
Urijah Faber will also be in action, taking on surging Brazilian finishing machine Yuri Alcantara on the FOX Sports 1 main card, as well as Matt Brown and Mike Pyle, who will attempt to destroy each others' win streaks.
"Shogun vs. Sonnen" fight card, in scientific terms, is stacked to the balls. It is also quite fertile with monetary gain. Blimey, I could have worded that better.
Regardless, here are the latest UFC Fight Night 26: "Shogun vs. Sonnen" betting odds, as well as a few tips to maybe help you at the local sportsbook:
UFC Fight Night 26 Odds For The Under Card:
Michael McDonald (-245) vs. Brad Pickett (+175)
Conor McGregor (-265) vs. Max Holloway (+225)
Mike Brown (-260) vs. Steven Siler (+180)
Diego Brandao (-350) vs. Daniel Pineda (+250)
Manny Gamburyan (-155) vs. Cole Miller (+115)
Ovince St. Preux (-320) vs. Cody Donovan (+240)
Ramsey Nijem (-185) vs. James Vick (+145)
Thoughts: One unappreciated underdog and one unappreciated favorite, methinks: Max Holloway and Manny Gamburyan, respectively.
I know Holloway looked bad against Leonard Garcia. I know that, like in the Garcia fight, Holloway took this fight on short notice. The difference is that he had 10 days to prepare for "Bad Boy." He had a month this time, which is enough to execute a proper weight cut.
At his best, Holloway is a cardio machine, able to throw a wide array of crazy strikes for 25 minutes if needed.
McGregor is a monstrous striker with arguably the biggest punch in the Featherweight division. His long-range weapons, however, are limited, comprising mostly a front kick he uses to draw in countering opportunities. He’s a full three inches shorter than Holloway, whose rangy style is a nightmare to counter.
I’m not saying this is an easy win for Holloway -- all "Notorious" has to do is touch him once and the fight is over. But, this is, in my mind, a 50/50 fight. By statistics, you make a profit of $.625 for every dollar you invest in him. Not a bad investment.
Miller is brilliant to watch when he’s got top position, but he struggles badly against people he can’t outwrestle. Castmate Matt Wiman had his way with Miller from top position, as did Joe Lauzon before him on the show. His striking is decent, but nowhere near as consistent as it needs to be. It is quite unlikely that he takes down Gamburyan, stops "The Anvil" from taking him down or knocks him out before any of that becomes an issue. The takedown is there whenever Gamburyan wants it and, should he take that opportunity, I have a hard time seeing him lose here.
The line (-155) is very generous toward Miller -- Gamburyan is far more of a sure thing than bigger favorites like Nijem or Brown, so put some down on the Armenian.
UFC Fight Night 26 Odds For The Main Card:
Chael Sonnen (-140) vs. Mauricio Rua (+120)
Alistair Overeem (-220) vs. Travis Browne (+180)
Urijah Faber (-280) vs. Yuri Alcantara (+240)
Matt Brown (-155) vs. Mike Pyle (+115)
Uriah Hall (-420) vs. John Howard (+335)
Joe Lauzon (-250) vs. Michael Johnson (+210)
Thoughts: I actually like three main card guys: Shogun, Brown Joe Lauzon.
I ordinarily have a policy against picking fighters with a history of cardio trouble, but I just really think this is a bad match up for Sonnen. Yes, Shogun has been taken down repeatedly in Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) competition; however, nobody but Jon Jones has been able to hold him there, excluding the first Forrest Griffin fight.
Shogun isn’t a great submission artist and is too predictable with his heel hook attempts, but his sweeps are fantastic. I very much doubt that Sonnen keeps him down, and even the current "kicks are for sissies" Shogun can eat Sonnen for breakfast on the feet. Against someone with a very spotty record at Light Heavyweight, Shogun, degraded as he is, should not be an underdog here.
Brown is strong, has big power, has a face you’d need a diamond-tipped saw to even shave, and one crappy defensive submission game. Against someone like "Quicksand," that would ordinarily be an issue, but Pyle’s recent performances have me liking "The Immortal" chances.
Lately, Pyle seems reticent to take the fight to the ground, relying instead on a newfound destructive clinch game to bludgeon opponents into submission. He absolutely cannot afford to trade with Brown in the clinch. Brown is one of the finest opportunists in the organization, somehow always knowing which of the Eight Limbs to best bash his foe with.
When Pyle allows Brown to enter point-blank range as has done during his latest streak, he will regret it in a hurry. Take advantage of it.
I will go on record as saying that Johnson has the absolute worst takedown defense I have ever seen in a wrestling-based fighter. Off his back, he has the defensive grappling prowess of a coma patient with none of the sympathy points. Him versus Lauzon is a mismatch of gigantic proportions unless he has made incredible strides (and I’m talking a Dragon Ball to Dragon Ball Z power level hike), Johnson is dogmeat.
Here’s your parlay anchor, gents.
UFC Fight Night 26 Best Bets:
- Single bet: Max Holloway Bet -- $30 to make $67.50
- Parlay: Manny Gamburyan and Joe Lauzon -- Bet $50 to make $65.60
- Single bet: Mauricio Rua -- Bet $40 to make $48
- Parlay: Matt Brown and Joe Lauzon -- Bet $40 to make $52.40
Six-fight free card loaded with Top 10-ranked fighters as far as the eye can see. It doesn't get much better than this, Maniacs.
See you Saturday.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 26: "Shogun vs. Sonnen" results this Saturday night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.