Mighty Mouse! Moraga! And other words that begin with "M" so I look clever.
The eternal Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) road trip makes a stop in Seattle, Wash., this Saturday night (July 27, 2013), bringing its eighth show on the FOX network to KeyArena.
Headlining the promotion's latest mixed martial arts (MMA) event is a Flyweight title fight that pits the division's first and only champion, Demetrious Johnson, against once-beaten wrestling specialist John Moraga. In addition, Rory MacDonald will look to put the Welterweight division on notice with a sacrifice of Jake Ellenberger, who will attempt to make a case for a 170-pound title shot of his own at the expense of the young Canadian prospect.
In addition, Bobby Voelker will step up on short notice to fight Robbie Lawler -- whose every victory since 2003 has been a stoppage -- and former women's Bantamweight title contender Liz Carmouche will welcome Brazilian prospect Jessica Andrade to the prestigious Octagon.
We've got massive potential for some crazy finishes, both on the main card and the eight-fight "Prelims" under card. And the only thing better would be if you could make money off the whole shebang.
Oh, wait ... you can!
Check out the latest UFC on FOX 8: "Johnson vs. Moraga" betting odds below, as well as several suggestions on where to look to score a potential profit.
UFC On FOX 8 Odds For The Under Card:
Jorge Masvidal (-280) vs. Michael Chiesa (+240)
Danny Castillo (-230) vs. Tim Means (+190)
Melvin Guillard (-115) vs. Mac Danzig (-105)
Daron Cruickshank (-125) vs. Yves Edwards (+105)
Ed Herman (-240) vs. Trevor Smith (+200)
Liz Carmouche (-600) vs. Jessica Andrade (+450)
Justin Salas (-235) vs. Aaron Riley (+195)
John Albert (-245) vs. Yaotzin Meza (+205)
Thoughts: I’ve got my eyes on two underdogs and a favorite this time around, all three coming off a loss. I like to live dangerously.
Picking someone who lost his last fight by being outwrestled over a solid wrestler may sound like a really stupid idea. When that fighter is Tim Means, though, I feel it’s still a wise investment. He has five inches of height on Castillo and the kind of punishing log-range strikes to take full advantage of it. Salas, a very solid grappler, was thumped into oblivion in a hurry and I have faith in Means' takedown defense against someone who doesn’t pose the striking threat that Jorge does.
Don’t make it the backbone of your night’s gambling, but I’d recommend putting a small sum on Means.
Herman’s tough as nails and has a brass pair that many fighters would do well to emulate, but he’s also 32, slow and has demonstrated extremely limited wrestling skills in his last few fights. Smith isn’t a world-beater, but what he is is huge, strong and relentless. He gave Tim Kennedy everything he could handle in the wrestling department, while Herman had difficulty with Clifford Starks.
The stylistic match up favors Smith enough to overcome the experience disadvantage and makes him worth the investment.
For a parlay anchor, I had my eye on either Salas or Albert; however, after realizing that Albert is superhumanly skilled at losing fights he is in the process of dominating, I decided to go with the former. He may have gotten flattened by Means, but he’s still a highly-skilled wrestler with the cardio to go five hard rounds. Riley, on the other hand, hasn’t demonstrated any outstanding skills and has spent nearly two years out of the cage.
Expect a constant takedown onslaught en route to a 30-27 decision win for Salas and bet accordingly.
UFC On FOX 8 Odds For The Main Card:
Demetrious Johnson (-470) vs. John Moraga (+375)
Rory Macdonald (-240) vs. Jake Ellenberger (+200)
Robbie Lawler (-280) vs. Bobby Voelker (+240)
Liz Carmouche (-600) vs. Jessica Andrade (+450)
Thoughts: I like watching Rory Macdonald because he is skilled, incredibly adept at following his coach’s instructions and incredibly destructive from top position.
But Jake Ellenberger? Jake Ellenberger is an animal.
Not only does he, in my opinion, pack the biggest punch in the entire division, but he’s next to impossible to take down. Further, he’s much faster than he looks -- he fired an uppercut or knee by the time Nate Marquardt had even finished leaning forward for a takedown.
MacDonals can be hurt, and anything short of a Mark Hunt-quality chin is a liability against Ellenberger.
If MacDonald can force Ellenberger to spend a lot of energy quickly, he’s certainly capable of taking over late. Doing so, however, requires a level of engagement with "The Juggernaut" that is very ill-advised.
I firmly believe Ellenberger can end things in a hurry and, at +200, I’m more than willing to put my money where my mouth is.
UFC On FOX 8 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Tim Means and Justin Salas -- Bet $20 to make $63
- Single bet: Trevor Smith -- Bet $30 to make $60
- Single bet: Jake Ellenberger -- Bet $30 to make $60
Title fight, contender match, slugfests of all shapes and sizes. Not bad for a free card.
See you Saturday, Maniacs!
Remember, too, that MMAmania.com will provide LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the main card action on fight night (Sat., July 27, 2013), which is slated to air at 8 p.m. ET on FOX. The latest play-by-play fight updates of the live action will begin to flow earlier than that, however, around 3:30 p.m. ET with the "Prelims" under card bouts on Facebook and FX Channel.