Ready for Brazilian jiu-jitsu?
The premiere Heavyweight practitioners of the art, Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira and Fabricio Werdum, will collide for a second time this Saturday (June 8, 2013) in the main event of UFC on Fuel TV 10, which takes place at Paulo Sarasate Arena in Fortaleza, Brazil.
Leonardo Santos and WIlliam Macario -- both Team Nogueira members -- will battle it out in The Ultimate Fighter (TUF): "Brazil 2" Finale in main card mixed martial arts (MMA) action. In addition, a scrap between knockout artists Rafael Cavalcante and Thiago Silva, as well as appearances from prospects Erick Silva and Rony Jason, will also be featured on the FUEL TV broadcast, which begins at 8 p.m. ET on fight night.
It's a solid free card with plenty of talent on this play, so let's see if we can't sweeten the deal further by making some dough. Follow me below for a closer look at the latest odds behind -- and best bets for -- UFC on FUEL TV 10: "Nogueira vs Werdum 2:"
UFC On FUEL TV 10 Odds For The Under Card:
Raphael Assuncao (-320) vs. Vaughan Lee (+240)
Ronny Markes (-260) vs. Derek Brunson (+180)
Felipe Arantes (-215) vs. Godofredo Castro (+165)
Ildemar Alcantara (-190) vs. Leandro Silva (+150)
Rodrigo Damm (-160) vs. Mizuto Hirota (+120)
Karlos Vemola (-150) vs. Caio Magalhaes (+110)
Antonio Braga Neto (-245) vs. Anthony Smith (+175)
Thoughts: You may not have heard of some of these guys, but the potential for great scraps is here. As far as bet-worthy ones, though, Hirota and Vemola strike me as the most profitable options.
Damm is a solid fighter, but he is remarkably fragile. Three of his last five losses have been knockouts and the one submission loss in the bunch came against Eiji Mitsuoka, who got the rear-naked choke off of a hard knockdown. Hirota is unbelievably difficult to put away and has some pop in his hands, both of which spell bad things for Damm as the fight progresses. This is a guy who has survived being on the bottom against Satoru Kitaoka and Rani Yahya. In other words, Damm may get the takedowns, but he’s not ending it before Hirota lands something big.
Therefore, moderate bet on the Japanese bruiser would make sense.
Vemola gets some grief for getting outwrestled despite his impressive credentials, but consider who he lost to: Jon Madsen, a solid wrestler with a massive size advantage; Ronny Markes, who’s a brick wall; and Francis Carmont, a big, strong grappler. Magalhaes isn’t anywhere near the wrestler those three are, and Vemola is an absolute monster when he gets top position.
Lay down some dough on the Czech to pick up yet another stoppage win.
UFC On FUEL TV 10 Odds For The Main Card:
Fabricio Werdum (-320) vs. Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+260)
Leo Santos (-245) vs. William Macario (+175)
Rafael Cavalcante (-210) vs. Thiago Silva (+175)
Erick Silva (-420) vs. Jason High (+335)
Daniel Sarafian (-465) vs. Eddie Mendez (+370)
Rony Jason (-350) vs. Mike Wilkinson (+250)
Thoughts: As with the under card, I’ve got one underdog and one favorite on my mind: "Big Nog" and "Feijao," respectively.
I’ll admit that Werdum’s stand up has greatly improved, but I’m not greatly impressed by it. It’s generally quite plodding and slow, while his rushes are wild and easily-countered. Nogueira is still the slower of the two, but his own oddball boxing style is very effective and he is much more experienced in the stand up. Werdum’s overall jiu-jitsu game may be the superior, although Nogueira has proven more in MMA. Plus, the massive improvement in Nogueira’s takedown defense bodes well for him, especially considering Werdum’s substandard takedown game.
There’s still some life left in Big Nog, and I’ll happily put my money where my mouth is.
Frankly, I’m stunned that the Cavalcante vs. Silva line is so close. Silva is scary and all, but this is the same guy with one win since 2008, no wins over present members of the division, and unimpressive performances his last two times out. His power is legitimate, true, but his striking is wild and lacks a jab. Even worse, he covers up and backs straight up when pressured, which is suicide with such small gloves. Stanislav Nedkov, who has literally one punch in his arsenal, still managed to land it.
And "Feijao" may be the biggest puncher in the division.
Frankly, Cavalcante hits stupid hard -- 10 knockouts and the one submission is from punches. Silva cannot stand with this man for any length of time. Silva really excels with his ground-and-pound, but his wrestling is mediocre. "Feijao," meanwhile, has demonstrated phenomenal takedown defense, staying upright despite Olympic-caliber wrestlers trying to drag him down.
I am extremely confident he will destroy Silva ... bet on it.
UFC On FUEL TV 10 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Mizuto Hirota and Rafael Cavalcante -- Bet $30 to make $67.80
- Single bet: Karlos Vemola -- Bet $60 to make $40
- Single bet: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira -- Bet $40 to make $104
- Parlay: Rafael Cavalcante and Karlos Vemola -- Bet $50 to make $73.50
Not many big names, but plenty of damn fine fights. Can't ask for more on a free card right, Maniacs?
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FUEL TV 10: "Nogueira vs Werdum 2" results this Saturday night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.