Nick Diaz is a fighter's fighter. He's a man who comes to fight. He comes to war.
His main kryptonite is wrestling. He's great on the ground but can't prevent wrestlers from taking him down.
Unfortunately for us fight fans.......GSP can't fight standing unless he's fighting guys with only rudimentary striking (Koscheck, Shields, etc). When facing great strikers GSP always seeks to take the fight to the ground and dry hump for 5 full rounds.
This means that UFC 158 will be little more than 5 rounds of nonstop dry humping.
Look no further than GSP vs. Dan Hardy for a preview of UFC 158.
Let's not forget when GSP's own coach (Greg Jackson) famously yelled "Don't Pass His Guard"...
That's right folks, GSP's own coach was screaming at GSP to "not" pass Hardy's guard since he realized that GSP didn't have the offensive weapons to actually finish the fight against Hardy even from mount position or side control (LOL).
So why am I bringing this up now?
Because Nick Diaz presents even more problems for GSP standing up than Dan Hardy did.
Also, Nick Diaz presents more problems for GSP on the ground than Dan Hardy did. GSP won't be able to posture up and pound Diaz with GnP since Nick is too slick on the ground. Likewise, GSP won't be able to attempt any offensive submissions because doing so would risk Diaz reversing position or submitting GSP.
GSP's wrestling is the only advantage he has over Diaz. He's good at taking people down and laying in their guard without posturing up, dry humping them to death.
GSP's ONLY path to victory is to turn this fight into GSP vs. Dan Hardy Part Deux.
Greg Jackson knows this and GSP knows this.
If I was Greg Jackson (and I thank my lucky stars I'm not) I'd be telling GSP to use the same gameplan he used for the Dan Hardy fight........just take down Nick Diaz and dry hump for 5 full rounds, peppering him with baby strikes from guard (to prevent the ref from standing them up). I'd tell him don't try to mount since that would risk losing his dominant DRY HUMP position. I'd tell him don't posture up for any serious GnP since doing so would risk Diaz's submission game coming into play.
Just rinse and repeat for 5 rounds.
GSP and Greg Jackson will take the path of least resistance as they always do and DRY HUMP their way to victory.
That's all fair and good. I can't criticize them for doing that since MMA isn't a street brawl, it's a sport.
What gets me riled up is that GSP is trying to sell this fight by telling everybody that he intends to put a massive beating on Nick Diaz.
He was afraid to pass Hardy's guard (after his failed armbar attempt) yet he's telling us that he's going to aggressively fight Nick Diaz? LOL. My guess is that he's just trying to increase PPV's by telling everybody that he's going to put a beating on Diaz. I see little chance of that happening.
Here's my message to GSP: If you don't have the STONES to actually FIGHT Nick Diaz then there's no shame in that sir, but please don't pretend that you have the intention of putting a massive beating on Nick Diaz when we all know that you're planning to show us a replay of GSP vs. Dan Hardy Redux.
The GSP who fought Matt Hughes NO LONGER EXISTS on planet Earth.
What we have now is just a ghost of GSP's former self, just a timid man whose entire fighting philosophy was reshaped after getting decked by Matt Serra.
I do acknowledge that UFC 158 will do huge PPV numbers since most MMA fans are too ignorant to realize that this fight will play out exactly as GSP vs. Dan Hardy did.
For those who want to believe that my analysis is wrong, I guarantee you'll be eating your share of crow when it's all over.