[Insert Brazilian jiu-jitsu joke about "Hump Day" here].
Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will continue its push on FOX Sports 1 this Wednesday (Oct. 9, 2013), as the leading mixed martial arts (MMA) organization heads down to Brazil once again with some elite Welterweight grapplers leading the way.
In the main event, Demian Maia will carry the flag of Brazilian jiu-jitsu against Jake Shields' "American Jiu-Jitsu," while Erick Silva looks to counter the Judo prowess of Korea's "Stun Gun," Dong-Hyun Kim.
It's a card with lots of potential for entertainment, plus the elusive element of profitability.
For elaboration, follow me for a closer look at the odds behind UFC Fight Night 29: "Maia vs. Shields:"
UFC Fight Night 29 Under Card Odds:
Thoughts: Now that they aren’t feeding him to the elite of the respective divisions, it’s finally Iliarde Santos’ turn to be a moneymaker.
Cariaso is, in short, stupidly inconsistent. Sometimes his striking is great, varied and effective. And sometimes he’s spamming the same left body kick over and over even as he is getting countered increasingly painfully in the process. Sometimes he’s stopping takedowns from John Moraga, sometimes he’s getting pancaked by Takeya Mizugaki and Jussier Formiga.
Frankly, that’s not going to cut it here -- Santos is a damn good fighter, one with solid power and very good wrestling. Santos has the resiliency to walk through Cariaso’s long-range attack and land flurries, plus the takedown ability to put Cariaso on his back consistently.
Add homefield advantage to all that and you have a good bet on your hands.
UFC Fight Night 29 Main Card Odds:
Demian Maia (-275) vs. Jake Shields (+235)
Erick Silva (-260) vs. Dong-Hyun Kim (+220)
Thiago Silva (-360) vs. Matt Hamill (+300)
Mike Pierce (-290) vs. Rousimar Palhares (+245)
Fabio Maldonado (-150) vs. Joey Beltran (+130)
T.J. Dillashaw (-240) vs. Raphael Assuncao (+200)
Thoughts: You know what? Let’s do it. Let’s go with underdogs. I have been getting mangled these last few events and I’m going all-in. I AM A LOOSE CANNON COP ON THE EDGE, MAN.
Palhares and Kim, if you screw this up for me, I am going to write very mean things about you on the Internet because you’re way bigger than me and I am in no way brave enough to say them to your faces.
Even with all the assorted shenanigans that have plagued his UFC career, Palhares is still one of the best no-gi grapplers on the planet. He is significantly faster than he looks and has a vicious takedown game. Pierce has some pop in his hands, but can’t bring it consistently to bear. And the fact that he spends so much time pressing opponents into the fence means he’s in Palhares' wheelhouse -- even pulling guard, Palhares can wreck Pierce on the mat.
Betting on the crazy guy who’s making his first weight cut to 170 pounds sounds insane, but at +245, it’s just insane enough to work.
Erick Silva has looked like a monster in UFC and does have the all-around talent to give most of the division a headache. That doesn’t change the fact that Kim is significantly larger, has a better takedown game and has the kind of suffocating top control Jon Fitch used to great effect against "Indio." Though Silva is the faster of the two, I don’t see him spending enough time on the feet to put that to use and I doubt his ability to take down Kim or consistently win scrambles. I’m not just picking this because Kim is a 2-1 underdog, but because I genuinely believe Kim can grind his man out.
Have I ever led you wrong? Aside from all those times where I led you wrong?
UFC Fight Night 29 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Iliarde Santos and Dong-Hyun Kim -- Bet $20 to make $84.40
- Single bet: Rousimar Palhares -- Bet $30 to make $73.50
- Single bet: Dong-Hyun Kim -- Bet $40 to make $84.00
Contender bouts, A+ grappling, and a few knockout artists to sweeten the deal. There are worse ways to spend a Wednesday evening.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC Fight Night 29: "Maia vs. Shields" results this mid-week RIGHT HERE, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.