UFC 166: The quick and dirty


Damn, those WMMA gals sure is purty when they gets all gussied up.

It's time once again for the Quick and the Dirty for UFC 166: Cain Velasquez versus Junior dos Santos. And if things go anything like they did last week, ya'll would be best to heed the dirty deeds herein. So without further ado, and barring any offers of a Tate-Rousey threeway, let's begin:

Dustin Pague (11-8) versus Kyoji Horiguchi (11-1)
Tapology: 71% Horiguchi
Playground: 54% Horguchi

On paper this is as easy as dropping a 21 kiloton atomic bomb on a heavily populated Japanese city. In reality it's much more difficult to call. See, Dustin Pague, while losing three in a row despite having a tattoo praising his Lord and Saviour Jesus Christ on his chest, is going up against a man who calls Japan his home. And quite frankly, Japan's record in the UFC has the sort of reputation that would make Baby Jebus cry.

Horiguchi owns the 132-pound strap in Japan's Shooto league, which means he's beaten up a lot of other Japanese dudes who weigh less than your girlfriend (and with makeup are probably prettier, too). Still, Dustin Pague has that one win against a guy with his own Wikipedia page. And that shit would impress anybody. The very mention he owns a submission over Jared Papazian has panties dropping left, right, and center. Make no doubt.

Horiguchi UD

* * *

Jeremy Larsen (8-4) versus Andre Fili (12-1)
Tapology: 86% Fili
Playground: 77% Fili

Seriously? His nickname is "Touchy" Fili? Sounds like a nickname for a convicted child molester. Anyway, Fili will be looking to molest TUF scrub Jeremy Larsen on Saturday, and by the looks of things that won't be too fucking difficult. Larsen is on a two-fight losing streak, taking a canvas nap following storytime as told by Punchy the Happy-go-lucky Fist in each one. Fili, meanwhile, has an eight-fight winning streak against dudes you never knew existed until now (and you still don't give a fuck who they are).

Larsen sounds like he a punchers chance, and he likes to rage-quit when he's losing. That means whatever happens, this isn't going to the incompetent overpaid undereducated boxing fans masquerading as cageside judges. Which is a good thing. Because when things go to the corrupt, inept, serially handicapped cageside monkeys, you never know who's going to get fucked out of 11 points on

Fili TKO1

* * *

Tony Ferguson (13-3) versus Mike Rio (9-2)
Tapology: 87% Ferguson
Playground: 88% Ferguson

You might remember Tony Ferguson from such TV episodes as getting drunk and telling Charlie Rader he's a shitty father. In other words he's a total douchebag and my idea of a good night at home is a bag of chips, some beer, and Ferguson's ugly face smashed into a mask of blood.

Unfortunately, he's facing fellow TUF guy Mike Rio, who has a lot going for him in the mouthpiece with fangs department, but not much else. I guess he can wrestle, but whatever. Dude lost to British power puff girl Andy Ogle on the reality TV show. Nuff said. I see Fergie lighting Mike up at range, eating a kneecap sandwich on the way in on a double leg, and getting woken up to a doctor's flashlight.

Ferguson TKO2

* * *

TJ Waldburger (16-7) versus Adlan Amagov (12-2-1)
Tapology: 73% Amagov
Playground: 51% Waldburger

Look, I know everybody already has Adlan Amagov knocking a fool out based on his stellar minor leagues career. I mean, decisioning Chris Spang in his UFC debut was even more impressive, eh? Here's the thing. Waldburger actually owns wins over relevant guys, like Pat Healy, David Mitchell, Jake Hecht, Nick Catone. They're not world beaters but they're UFC calibre with decent wrestling. He also owns two submission of the night awards.

Amagov's wrestling is going to be heavily tested in this one, and if he's not able to stop the takedown he can look forward to non-stop submission attempts on his neck. For me, deciding who will won comes down to one all-determining factor. Amagov has a cooler beard. It's only if he shows up clean shaven that I'm truly fucked.

Amagov UD

* * *

George Sotiropolous (14-5) versus KJ Noons (11-7)
Tapology: 70% Noons
Playground: 64% Noons

I know what you're thinking. Titties. Sorry, no, I mean I know what you're thinking, Sots is going to get this to the ground and dominate Noons right out of the UFC where he never belonged in the first place. After all, Sots destroyed Joe Lauzon once he got him to the ground, while Josh Thomson showed everybody how bad Noons' wrestling really is. Besides, Noons is 1-5 in his last six fights.

That's all true. But something being true doesn't mean Sots has looked good since LMFAO was still a band looking for a number one hit to appeal to all the brain-damaged people out there. He thinks he can stand and bang when he can't. He's a glass-chinned bull in a shop full of iron pipes. And Ross Pearson and Rafael dos Anjos both cracked that chin into so many pieces I thought he'd be spending his retirement trying to glue them back together. Since he isn't, looks like Noons is going to give him some more Parkinson's shakes for his old age.

Noons UD

* * *

Sarah Kaufman (16-2) versus Jessica Eye (10-1)
Tapology: 79% Kaufman
Playground: 85% Kaufman

The only thing I can really remember is about Sarah Kaufman is that brainless 1,000-yard zombie stare with her mouth wide open Rampage Jackson-style moments before she got armbarred by Ronda Rousey in 54 seconds. Nothing says pointless "four-month training camp" more than getting your shit destroyed in less time than it takes to find the bottle opener in your cutlery drawer.

I want to believe she'll get similarly destroyed by Jessica Eye, but I don't have a lot of confidence in it, honestly. Kaufman is a tough Canadian wench who is used to elbowing chunky 135ers like Alexis Davis, Liz Carmouche, and Miesha Tate. Eye, meanwhile, had to pack some pudge on her thighs to come up from 125. Meaning, somebody is getting a vicious beating come Saturday. Nobody is getting finished, however. This is WMMA, after all.

Kaufman UD

* * *

Nate Marquardt (32-12-2) versus Hector Lombard (32-4-1)
Tapology: 71% Lombard
Playground: 68% Lombard

Look, I'll be the first to say Hector Lombard was ridiculously overrated before coming over from Bellator. I won a delightful sig bet with some martard when I said Timmy Boetsch would end the can crusher's 30-fight win streak. But is he washed up? Far fucking from it.

Nate Marquardt, meanwhile, made everybody hot under the collar when he went to Strikeforce and knocked out wrestle-humper Tyron Woodley. But during that fight his chin was heavily tested. It was also tested again, where it failed spectacularly, against Jake Ellenberger. And guess who has power like Jake Ellenberger? That's right, the tomato can opener. It's a matter of time before it connects. When it does, Lombard is a ruthless finisher. Nate the not-so-great might need to go back to 185 after this one.

Lombard TKO1

* * *

Tim Boetsch (16-6) versus CB Dollaway (13-4)
Tapology: 87% Boetsch
Playground: 84% Boetsch

Poor Timmeh. After knocking out Japanese fool and ex-Zuffa employee Yushin Okami and twinkle toeing his way to a decision over statue-impersonator Hector Lombard, he bled out like a stuck pig against Costa Philippou and then got Donkey Konged by a very angry Filipino guy.

But as far as he's fallen back, he's not fartface bad. CB Dollaway owns wins Jason Mayhem Miller about a century past his best before date, as well as a dubious decision over a pudgy middleweight from Brazil who doesn't have the goddamned fucking common sense to diet down to 170. Prior to those fights he was getting the fuck knocked out in back-to-back fights. Now, I don't think Timmeh will knock CB out, but I do think he can regain some of his dignity.

Boetsch UD

* * *

John Dodson (14-6) versus Darrell Montague (13-2)
Tapology: 95% Dodson
Playground: 95 Dodson

Romeo, Romeo, wherefore the fuck art Montague? I doth Wikipediaed that bitch and he was last seeneth submitting some Jesse Miramontes in California in 2012. And don't ask me to Wikipedia Moramontes because I don't know how to bend time and physics like that.

Look, Montague apparently went almost three rounds with Ian McCall, so he's not a total can. But I don't see him surviving three rounds with the heaviest hitter at 125. Dodson is gonna Dodson, which means he'll bounce around the cage a bunch, land a bomb, and then sport a goofy childlike grin that has all the intimidation factor of a smurf in a My Little Pony episode.

Dodson TKO2

* * *

Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7) versus Shawn Jordan (15-4)
Tapology: 50% each
Playground: 55% Jordan HOT BOUT

It's understandable this is the hot bout. Gonzaga has a hell of a ground game, while Shawn Jordan is a formidable wrestler who is unlikely to get taken down. Jordan packs a punch, but Gonzaga has been known to knock a motherfucker out himself (Mirko Cro Cop, Dave Herman). He's also been known to fall down unconscious a lot, which isn't too reassuring.

Before I refreshed my memory I was leaning toward "Napao." But now I see Jordan landing the big shots on the big man and blocking his takedown attempts. Then again, if this goes anything like the Cheick Kongo fight it could be a lot of wall and stall. I'm guessing Gonzaga rushes in for a double leg right away. If Jordan prevents the takedown early, he should be able to finish it in style. Maybe not illegal elbows to the back of the head stylish, but something nice.

Jordan TKO1

* * *

Gilbert Melendez (21-3) versus Diego Sanchez (24-5)
Tapology: 91% Melendez
Playground: 92% Melendez

This might just be the biggest mismatch on a main card in quite some time. Everything that Diego Sanchez is good at, Gilbert Melendez is much better. Diego can't wrestle his way out of this one. He can't out box Gil. He can't submit Gil. This isn't 2009 anymore.

Diego's best hope is to use the power of Christ to compel him to go full exorcist on Gil and hope for some bad judging. But it's unlikely. I see Melendez lighting Diego up like a Christmas tree and leaving him questioning his faith in a higher power. Having said that, I hope Diego does something insane. There's no Diego like a screaming crucifix-brandishing yes-cartwheel rolling mean-mugging Diego.

Melendez UD

* * *

Daniel Cormier (12-0) versus Roy Nelson (19-8)
Tapology: 86% Cormier
Playground: 86% Cormier

This is the perfect matchup. Two fat, lazy, arrogant men who both think they can make 205 but never will. It's like a battle of the greater delusions here. A man who almost died trying to cut weight to 205 pounds versus a man whose greatest claim to slimming down was gaining 100,000 new Facebook fans by convincing them he was going to drop the weight. Gotcha, suckas!

I don't really see any way for Big Country to win here. He's the kind of guy who knocks out the weak-chinned wonders of the 265 division but fails every single time he's matched against a better opponent. He can't take Cormier down. He won't outbox him. His only hope is to stumble around and swing wildly, just like he always does. Then he'll gas, lose a decision, and claim he's going to get in better shape. Right after this chicken sandwich. Well, you know what Brock Lesnar said about that. You can't make chicken sandwich from chicken shit.

Cormier UD

* * *

Cain Velasquez (12-1) versus Junior dos Santos (16-2)
Tapology: 69% Velasquez
Playground: 74% Velasquez

I don't like Cain Velasquez. He made the same stupid agreement not to fight Daniel Cormier that GSP and Rory Mac have, which means we have to see him beat up fan favourite Junior dos Santos again instead of fighting the true number one contender.

I like Junior, I think he's good people. He has a puncher's chance of catching Cain right on the temple again. But I don't think it'll happen. Cain goes out there like a dog on a crotch-sniffing mission and he won't stop until he sniffs that crotch hard. I was disappointed the last time that Cain gassed out and couldn't put Junior away. It was a black mark on an otherwise dominant effort. I think if he puts a little gusto into this one he gets the finish. Brown Pride, indeed.

Velasquez TKO2

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