Round six, coming right up.
After their spectacular showdown at UFC 144, deposed Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Lightweight Champion, Frankie Edgar, and current 155-pound kingpin, Ben Henderson, will once again lock horns this weekend (Sat., Aug. 11, 2012) in the UFC 150 main event from the Pepsi Center in Denver, Colorado.
In addition, Melvin Guillard and Donald Cerrone will collide in a co-main event with enormous potential for fireworks. Middleweight standouts Jake Shields and Yushin Okami will also be featured in pay-per-view (PPV) main card mixed martial arts (MMA) action.
As usual, there's a profit hidden inside the stacked 11-fight card, just waiting for an enterprising gambler to have a go at it.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC 150: "Henderson vs. Edgar 2" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming fights in the "Mile High City:"
UFC 150 Odds For The Under Card:
Dennis Bermudez (-285) vs. Tommy Hayden (+225)
Michael Kuiper (-115) vs. Jared Hamman (-115)
Erik Perez (-115) vs. Ken Stone (-115)
Dustin Pague (-215) vs. Chico Camus (+175)
Nik Lentz (-300) vs. Eiji Mitsuoka (+240)
Thoughts: I’m not seeing much value here, as the lines seem mostly accurate, which is of no help to me (or you). The exception, however, is Ken Stone.
As solid as Perez’s ground game looked against John Albert, Stone’s takedown defense has proven stalwart, especially in his fight with Pague. In addition, he’s the superior stand up fighter of the two, especially with those heavy leg kicks of his. His chin remains a big question mark, but with all of two knockouts to his credit, Perez doesn’t strike me as the type to test it.
Very good value on the American -- either straight-up or parlay would work.
UFC 150 Odds For The Main Card:
Ben Henderson (-185) vs. Frankie Edgar (+155)
Donald Cerrone (-300) vs. Melvin Guillard (+240)
Jake Shields (-180) vs. Ed Herman (+150)
Yushin Okami (-525) vs. Buddy Roberts (+375)
Justin Lawrence (-120) vs. Max Holloway (-110)
Thoughts: Aside from the main event, not much here is going to rattle the rankings, but there’s a lot of potential here for some great fights. There might be some money in it, too, if you know where to look.
I really like the line on Lawrence here.
As impressive as Holloway looked against Pat Schilling, he’s never demonstrated stopping power despite his impressive arsenal. Lawrence, on the other hand, hits like a truck with both his hands and his feet and most likely has far more experience in stand up than Holloway. Further, Lawrence has demonstrated some solid wrestling during his time under the spotlight and, while Brazilian jiu-jitsu is obviously not his strongest suit, Holloway’s ground game is nonexistent.
Even if things do go south standing, which I don’t anticipate, Lawrence has another option, one that Holloway doesn’t. Go heavy on Lawrence, stupid nickname and all.
Look, you can’t trust anything I say regarding Japanese fighters. This is established fact. All I’m going to say is that if you want to add a few more bucks to an earlier bet, including Okami wouldn’t be a bad choice. He’s got Roberts beat in every area and should win this easily.
I’m as critical of Jake Shields as anyone else on this website, but I do think he’s being undervalued here. Yes, he’s got the stand up of an eight-year-old throwing a temper-tantrum and he moves like he’s wading through molasses, but he’s got a major wrestling advantage over Herman, who most likely isn’t going to be stopping Shields off his back. This fight, like all of Shields’ fights that don’t involve him getting his ass kicked, is probably going to suck, but he should win this. Herman doesn’t have the power to exploit Shields' incompetence on the feet and he’s going to languish on his back for 15 minutes. Parlay our eye-gouging friend.
Donald Cerrone and Melvin Guillard are riddles wrapped in enigmas. Cerrone can never decide whether he wants to be a technical marvel (Dennis Siver, Jeremy Stephens) or a walking punching bag (Nate Diaz) and Guillard has the fight IQ of a particularly dim brick. Cerrone should win this easily, but both guys are unpredictable in all the worst ways to the extent that putting any money placed on the outcome of this fight might as well have been put in a slot machine.
Leave it alone.
Same with the main event. Henderson’s huge physical advantages and crushing guillotine make him the rightful favorite, but Edgar did enjoy sporadic success in their first fight, including a legitimate knockdown in the late going. Plus, Edgar always improves exponentially in rematches. This ought to be a war, but it’s a war with too many variables to recommend gambling on.
Don’t touch this one.
UFC 150 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Ken Stone and Jake Shields -- Bet $40 to make $76.80
- Single Bet: Justin Lawrence -- Bet $60 to make $50
- Single Bet: Ken Stone -- Bet $80 to make $69.57
Just because it's another lightweight championship rematch doesn't mean this fine scrap, along with the rest of the fight card, isn't worth getting excited about.
See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC 150 results this Saturday, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.