Relatively inexperienced(4-1 at the time, with Pit Elevated), Nijem started his UFC career with a first round knockout loss to winner Tony Ferguson. He then went on to wrestle rape Danny Downes in his next fight, easily securing a UD in a blowout that was nearly finished multiple times. After that, he faced UFC new comer CJ Keith and finished him via 1st round TKO after a rough opening minute where he was out wrestled before turning the tide.
TJ Dillashaw(4-0, with Team Alpha Male) ran headfirst into Jon Dodson's fist for a first round knockout loss to end his unbeaten streak and bring his UFC record to a stunning 0-1. Next, he fought Walel Watson and dominated him with his wrestling and submission grappling in 2012's current beat down of the year. Most recently, he took on British submission specialist(oxymoron). For the first couple minutes he was badly out struck, but changed things with a takedown to back mount and standing RNC victory in the first round.
Dennis Bermudez(7-2, with Long Island MMA) came into the house with more experience than the other two but it went the same. After dominating competition in the house, he was violently finished in the first round in his UFC debut by submission. Can you guess what happens next? Bermudez used his powerful wrestling and ground skills to dominate Pablo Garza, easily winning a decision. A few hours ago, Bermudez fought Jorge Gurgel trainee Tommy Hayden. After nearly being decapitated by a knee to the dome, he came back to submit Hayden in... the first round.
All 3 of these young TUFers(24, 26, and 25 respectively) were wrestling based fighters who blew through their competition on the house but faced more experienced opponents in the finale, getting finished in the first round of their UFC debut. They dominated their next opponent but showed inexperience by failing to finish a clearly out gunned opponent. They next showed their growth by surviving a few rough patches to finish their opponents impressively in the first round. What can be learned from this? Most intelligent stockbrokers say we shouldn't guess at the future by look at the past, but it's the only option available. Let's look at the most recent TUF runner up, Al Iaquinta.
- 25 years old
- Wrestling based
- Inexperienced(5-1 to enter show)
- Lost to more experienced fighter in the first round of TUF finale
- Trains at well known gym(Serra & Longo's)
As you can see, he is essentially the same build as the last three. Even without knowing his next opponent, Iaquinta by decision is a safe pick for his next fight. I know what you're thinking, "What if he gets matched up with someone really good, like Clay Guida?" The answer is, simply, he won't. The UFC likes to build TUFers and they get favorable match ups. The sole reason I picked Bermudez by finish tonight(Although I picked KO instead of submission) was this little pattern I noticed. So what say you Maniacs, am I a fool or is this pattern legitimate? Any other MMA patterns you can think of?
NOTE:This would have been a much better read if I wasn't furious right now. If you picked Bendo and accept that he lost, pat yourself on the back. If you picked Bendo and thought he won, I hope you get Lupus. Good night, time for Entourage reruns.
NOTE 2: If you can find the quote from a certain fighter's book, you win a prize.