205, all up in here.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight division will get quite the shakeup (and likely a new number one title contender) this Saturday (Aug. 4, 2012) when the world's leading mixed martial arts (MMA) promotion heads to the Staples Center in Los Angeles, Calif., with UFC on Fox 4: "Shogun vs. Vera."
Leading the way are a bevy of former champions and contenders as Mauricio Rua and Lyoto Machida face Brandon Vera and Ryan Bader, respectively. In addition, Jamie Varner will look to ride the momentum generated by his stoppage of Edson Barboza as he takes on Joe Lauzon in another exciting main card match up.
There are some great fights lined up, as well as some opportunities for profit if you know where to look.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on Fox 4: "Shogun vs. Vera" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming fights set to go down in the heart of the left coast this weekend:
UFC On FOX 4 Odds For The Under Card:
Phil Davis (-600) vs. Wagner Prado (+400)
Josh Grispi (-180) vs. Rani Yahya (+150)
Manny Gamburyan (-150) vs. Michihiro Omigawa (+120)
Cole Miller (-140) vs. Nam Phan (+110)
Phil de Fries (-220) vs. Oli Thompson (+170)
Ulysses Gomez (-250) vs. John Moraga (+190)
Thoughts: There are three underdogs I really like here: Yahya, Omigawa, and Thompson.
There are several gaping holes in Yahya’s game and those holes will forever keep him from touching the elite, but he did a hell of a lot better against Mike Brown than Grispi did against mid-tier George Roop. Grispi has yet to demonstrate any sort of competent stand up in the UFC, while Yahya can at least sit back and toss out leg kicks for fifteen minutes. Plus, Grispi is effectively boned if he tries to play on the ground with the jiu-jitsu wizard.
I just don’t see why Gamburyan is a favorite here. Aside from Brown, he hasn’t beat a competent opponent ... well, ever. His stand up is technically terrible, and while Omigawa’s new shift-punching style is decidedly less effective than his classic peek-a-boo, it’s still much better than Gamburyan’s wild swings. Further, Gamburyan’s power is overstated (two knockouts, one against a man with the weakest jaw since Jonathan Goulet) and Omigawa’s jaw is concrete.
With their Judo ostensibly cancelling out, that spells straightforward decision for Omigawa.
Phil de Fries has no stand up and below average wrestling. Oli Thompson, meanwhile, has SOME stand up and serviceable wrestling. De Fries is the better submission artist, but he’s not good enough to win this fight off his back, which is where he’ll inevitably end up. I don’t see him winning unless he catches a gassed Thompson late, which is certainly possible, but at these odds, Thompson is the better value.
UFC On FOX 4 Odds For The Main Card:
Mauricio Rua (-400) vs. Brandon Vera (+300)
Lyoto Machida (-370) vs. Ryan Bader (+280)
Jamie Varner (-115) vs. Joe Lauzon (-115)
Mike Swick (-250) vs. Damarques Johnson (+190)
Thoughts: Nice matchups. Let’s see if there’s anything worthwhile.
Stay far away from the opening bout. Swick is coming off a two-year layoff, but has such a big skill advantage over Johnson that things kinda balance out once again. Johnson has zero victories over current UFC fighters, but Swick is made of toothpicks and string.
Leave this one alone -- too many questions.
I really like the line on Varner, although he was a bit better at EVEN earlier. I am a huge Lauzon fan, both for his style and his nerdness, but consider this:
- Of all the people Lauzon has beaten in the UFC, only two remain in the organization: Jeremy Stephens and Melvin Guillard.
- Joe Lauzon has terrible cardio and has shown no signs of fixing it.
- Varner is the better technical striker and has much better wrestling.
Yes, Varner was on a pretty bad streak before hammering Barboza, but I just don’t see "J-Lau" getting it to the ground before his gas tank empties. Varner has a solid jaw, precluding a knockdown, and I don’t see Lauzon out-wrestling him. If the fight leaves the first, Varner wallops him.
Bet on the old World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC) champion.
To be frank, I don’t think betting on the main- or co-main event is a good idea. The odds are skewed toward the Brazilians, but both took serious damage in their last fights. Further, Bader has looked excellent since his loss to Jones, and the last time Machida was finished, he was incredibly tentative against Rampage and gave up the first two rounds. Shogun might be worth a bet, but Vera is just so damned inconsistent that you never know when he’ll pull out something amazing.
Leave them be.
UFC On FOX 4 Best Bets For UFC On FOX 4:
- Single Bet: Oli Thompson -- Bet $30 to make $51
- Parlay: Michihiro Omigawa and Jamie Varner -- Bet $20 to make $62.20
- Single Bet: Rani Yahya -- Bet $40 to make $70
- Single Bet: Jamie Varner -- Bet $60 to make $52.17
Light Heavyweight delight, free on FOX this weekend, is where it's at, Maniacs.
See you then!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FOX 4 results this Saturday, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.