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Mania Fantasy League Pool A: Partial Analysis

Ok, I think we all got this sorted now, and after the draft it's pretty clear a bunch of us had no idea what the fuck we were doing. Not only was it important to pick finishers, but guys who will contend for titles, fight frequently, and haven't fought recently.

But oh well, this is only a trial run, so I think we'll learn much from it. After getting down to analyzing all the numbers and researching the fights, I realized I didn't have time to do more than 2 weight classes. If anyone wants to pick up where I left off, they're welcome to try.

But here's what I have so far:

Contestants:

Deuce02, stinky~fingers, U_had_me_at_Kimura, unambig, magicmike

bubbles24, ShivanTiger, ViolentMike, donkeypunch, Ulf Murphy

HEAVYWEIGHTS

Winning percentage

Deuce has this one locked up. The wrestler/striker has so far been perfect in MMA action, followed closely by the near-flawless Junior dos Santos, and undefeated Travis Browne. Worst value for pick: Werdum and Mir.

1. Stipe Miocic (Deuce): 9-0, 100%

2. Junior dos Santos (stinky): 15-1, 94%

3. Travis Browne (kimura): 13-0-1, 93%

4. Shane del Rosario (unambig): 11-1, 92%

5. Cain Velasquez (bubbles): 10-1, 91%

6. Stefan Struve (ShivanTiger): 24-5, 83%

7. Matt Mitrione (Violentmike): 5-1, 83%

8. Alistair Overeem (donkey): 36-11, 77%

9. Fabricio Werdum (Ulf): 16-5-1, 73%

10. Frank Mir (magicmike): 16-6, 73%

Finishing percentage

Although Shane lost his last fight, he's finished every win he's had, making him a good pick for finishing. The Demolition Man is a good runnerup, and beanpole Struve squeaks in at third. Worst finisher: Frank Mir.

1. Shane del Rosario (unambig): 100%

2. Alistair Overeem (donkey): 95%

3. Stefan Struve (ShivanTiger): 92%

4. Cain Velasquez (bubbles): 91%

5. Stipe Miocic (Deuce): 89%

6. Junior dos Santos (stinky): 86%

7. Travis Browne (kimura): 84%

8. Fabricio Werdum (Ulf): 81%

9. Matt Mitrione (violentmike): 80%

10. Frank Mir (magicmike): 75%

Overall Potential

The following is calculated based on FPY (fights per year calculated over 3 year average), likely number of fights over next year, title fights, fight of the night percentage, and finishing percentage. Note that these are maximum points, and are ruled out if one fighter beats another in the league.

1. Stipe Miocic (Deuce): 21 (3 FPY, 3 finishes)

2. Stefan Struve (ShivanTiger): 21 (3.33 FPY, 3 finishes)

3. Cain Velasquez (bubbles): 19 (2 FPY, 1 title fight, 2 finishes)

4. Junior dos Santos (stinky): 14 (2.67 FPY, 2 finishes)

5. Fabricio Werdum (Ulf): 14 (2 FPY, 2 finishes, 17% FOTN)

6. Frank Mir (magicmike): 14 (2.33 FPY, 2 finishes)

7. Travis Browne (kimura): 14 (3.33 FPY, 2 finishes)

8. Matt Mitrione (ViolentMike): 14 (2 FPY, 2 finishes, 17% FOTN)

9. Shane del Rosario (unambig): 14 (2.33 FPY, 2 finishes)

10. Alistair Overeem (donkey): 12 (2.33 FPY, 1 title fight, 1 finish)

LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Winning percentage

This one goes to stink and Ulf. I'm not counting the DQ elbow since it's stupid. We can assume Jones has a 100% winning rate. The worst pick was Shogun Rua.

1. Jon Jones (stinky): 100%

2. Wagner Prado (Ulf): 100%

3. Ryan Jimmo (magicmike): 94%

4. Alexander Gustafsson (ShivanTiger): 93%

5. Phil Davis (deuce): 90%

6. Glover Teixeira (bubbles): 89%

7. Rashad Evans (unambig): 88%

8. Lyoto Machida (donkey): 85%

9. Dan Henderson (violentmike): 78%

10. Mauricio Rua (Kimura): 77%

Finishing percentage

I don't always win fights, but when I do, I knock a motherfucker out. Kimura picks the most lethal fighter at Light Heavyweight. Close on his tail are fellow Brazilians Glover and Wagner. The guys who couldn't finish a tuna in a paper bag are Machida and Evans.

1. Mauricio Rua (kimura): 90%

2. Glover Teixeira (bubbles): 89%

3. Wagner Prado (Ulf): 88%

4. Alexander Gustafsson (ShivanTiger): 85%

5. Jon Jones (stinky): 81%

6. Phil Davis (Deuce): 55%

7. Ryan Jimmo (magicmike): 53%

8. Dan Henderson (violentmike): 52%

9. Lyoto Machida (donkey): 47%

10. Rashad Evans (unambig): 47%

Overall Potential

Obviously, Jon Jones has the most upside here. He fights most often and he usually finishes. I'm taking away Gustafsson's title shot after Hendo based on Dana White's recent comments. Most unlikely points come from Machida, Jimmo, and Evans for lack of fighting regularity and finishing.

1. Jon Jones (stinky): 21 (3 FPY, 3 finishes, 18% FOTN)

2. Glover Teixeira (bubbles): 21 (3.67 FPY, 3 finishes)

3. Wagner Prado (Ulf): 21 (2.67 FPY, 3 finishes)

4. Dan Henderson (violentmike): 19 (2 FPY, 1 title fight, 1 finish, 25% FOTN)

5. Phil Davis (Deuce): 19 (2.67 FPY, 2 finishes)

6. Alexander Gustafsson (ShivanTiger): 14 (2.67 FPY, 1 finish)

7. Mauricio Rua (kimura): 14 (2 FPY, 2 finishes, 33% FOTN)

8. Lyoto Machida (donkey): 12 (2 FPY, 1 finish, 12% FOTN)

9. Ryan Jimmo (magicmike): 12 (2.67 FPY, 1 finish)

10. Rashad Evans (unambig): 12 (2 FPY, 1 finish, 13% FOTN)

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Winning percentage

Best chance of getting a win from this pool is the undefeated Weidman, followed up by the champion, who's undefeated in the UFC. The least likely to win is the man who was largely believed would dethrone him.

1. Chris Weidman (violentmike): 100%

2. Anderson Silva (donkey): 89%

3. Michael Bisping (ShivanTiger): 85%

4. Tim Boetsch (Deuce): 80%

5. Yushin Okami (stinky): 79%

6. Daniel Sarafian (ulf): 78%

7. Brian Stann (magicmike): 75%

7. Alan Belcher (kimura): 75%

9. Vitor Belfort (bubbles): 70%

10. Chael Sonnen (unambig): 68%

Finishing percentage

If you want a guy who finishes, Belcher's your man, not the Spider. Surprisingly, Michael Bisping actually finishes a high percentage of opponents. Once again, Chael Sonnen is a dog's asshole here.

1. Alan Belcher (kimura): 89%

2. Daniel Sarafian (ulf): 86%

3. Brian Stann (magicmike): 83%

4. Michael Bisping (ShivanTiger): 82%

5. Vitor Belfort (bubbles): 81%

6. Anderson Silva (donkey): 78%

7. Tim Boetsch (Deuce): 75%

8. Chris Weidman (violentmike): 66%

9. Yushin Okami (stinky): 50%

10. Chael Sonnen (unambig): 41%

Overall Potential

If you're looking for a lot of upside at middleweight, forget about it. Only Stann and Weidman fight frequently enough to get in two or more fights over the next 9 months. As for guys like Belfort and Silva, they're only likely to put in one more day at before next May. And Chael Sonnen is potentially pure garbage.

1. Brian Stann (magicmike): 19 (3 FPY, 2 finishes, 22% FOTN)

2. Chris Weidman (violentmike): 17 (3 FPY, 1 title fight, 1 finish)

3. Michael Bisping (ShivanTiger): 14 (2.67 FPY, 2 finishes)

3. Alan Belcher (kimura): 14 (2 FPY, 2 finishes, 15% FOTN)

3. Tim Boetsch (deuce): 14 (3.33 FPY, 2 finishes)

6. Yushin Okami (stinky): 12 (2 FPY, 1 finish)

7. Vitor Belfort (bubbes): 7 (1.67 FPY, 1 finish)

7. Anderson Silva (donkey): 7 (2.33 FPY, 1 finish, 20% FOTN)

7. Daniel Sarafian (ulf): 7 (2 FPY, 1 finish)

10. Chael Sonnen (unambig): 5 (2.67 FPY, 18% FOTN)

Running Total (Heavyweight, Light Heavyweights and Middleweights)

1. Deuce 54

2. Violentmike 50

3. Bubbles 47

3. Stinky 47

3. ShivanTiger 47

6. Magicmike 45

7. Ulf 42

7. Kimura 42

9. Unambig 31

9. Donkey 31

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