Photo of UFC on FUEL TV 4's Mark Munoz by Esther Lin for MMA Fighting.
An American and a Filipino going at it in a main event? I think I see Bob Arum drooling off in the distance.
Middleweight contenders Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz, with a crack at Anderson Silva possibly in the winner's future, will soon square off inside the HP Pavilion in San Jose, Calif., when the wrestling-minded pair headline UFC on FUEL TV 4.
In addition, Joey Beltran will make his return to the Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) -- this time at a svelte 205 pounds -- to face Kiwi bruiser James Te Huna. In all, the main card is six fights deep, all of which have excellent violence potential.
And profit potential, too, if you know where to look.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on FUEL TV 4: "Munoz vs. Weidman" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming mixed martial arts (MMA) match ups:
UFC On FUEL TV 4 Odds For The Under Card:
Raphael Assuncao (-250) vs. Issei Tamura (+190)
Andrew Craig (-155) vs. Rafael Natal (+125)
Damacio Page (-200) vs. Alex Caceres (+160)
Marcelo Guimaraes (-370) vs. Dan Stittgen (+280)
Chris Cariaso (-280) vs. Josh Ferguson (+220)
Thoughts: The two guys you’re probably going to get the best value out of are Tamura and Caceres, by virtue of stylistic match ups.
Tamura isn’t Chad Mendes, but he’s got powerful takedowns and, once on the ground, ironclad submission defense. Assuncao is probably the better striker, but I don’t see him staying off his back long enough to score a win, especially since he’s been off for about 10.5 months. Don’t go overboard, but a small ($20 to $30) bet on Issei wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Page has a reputation for power punching that, I feel, isn’t entirely deserved. He has all of one knockout in the past four years and really hasn’t looked impressive in his last three fights aside from a good first round against Mighty Mouse. Caceres, in my opinion, got robbed blind against Figueroa; he won every second of that fight aside from that head kick in the first.
Caceres should pick apart Page and I consider him profitable.
UFC On FUEL TV 4 Odds For The Main Card:
T.J. Dillashaw (-400) vs. Vaughan Lee (+300)
Francis Carmont (-190) vs. Karlos Vemola (+160)
Rafael dos Anjos (-225) vs. Anthony Njokuani (+175)
Aaron Simpson (-300) vs. Kenny Robertson (+240)
James Te Huna (-500) vs. Joey Beltran (+350)
Chris Weidman (-150) vs. Mark Munoz (+120)
Thoughts: Not loaded with names, but those are some awesome matchups. Let’s look closer.
It kills me to say this, since Lee owned Norifumi Yamamoto, but I think Dillashaw absolutely spanks him. I’m confident enough that I consider this worth sticking in a parlay despite the hilariously-lopsided odds. Lee has a terrible case of British wrestling syndrome (which Dan Hardy has miraculously survived a nasty case of), and frankly, that wrestling disadvantage makes the Brazilian jiu-jitsu and striking questions moot.
Dillashaw with a steady beatdown from the safety of side or mount.
Look, I love Karlos Vemola. I think his "stand up" is hilarious to watch and I think his psychotic murderrific ground-and-pound is awesome. I think he’ll lose this fight, though, as he hasn’t quite figured out how to punch someone who isn’t on their back. Still, while Carmont should have a major advantage in striking and the takedown defense to exploit it, he took Magnus Cedenblad way too lightly and nearly paid for it big time.
No telling if he does the same here so leave it be.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Anthony Njokuani is about as traditional a grappler vs. striker match up as you’re likely to find, and I think it’s a fantastic match up. Dos Anjos’s striking has improved greatly and Njokuani’s takedown defense looked at least marginally better than usual in his fight with Danny Castillo. Still, while it’s an intriguing, action-intensive fight, I don’t think it’s worth betting on.
Njokuani’s takedown defense is the deciding factor, and I don’t know how well it compares to Dos Anjos' takedowns.
Simpson’s drop to 170 pounds reeks of less "too small for the division" and more "let’s beat up some tiny dudes," but he’s got pretty much an identical skillset to Mike Pierce, who put down Robertson in two. Plus, Robertson has no standout victories. I’m not convinced he has any future in the division, although his spinning backfist knockout of Lucio Linhares (of the "asshole backfist" subtype used to great effect by Pete Spratt against Daniel Acacio) was hilarious.
Still, I don’t like betting on guys making desperation cuts. Leave this one alone.
Te Huna is going to kick Joey Beltran’s ass. It’s that simple. His hands are, for lack of a better word, stupid fast and incredibly powerful. He’s got an underrated wrestling game in case things get hairy. Frankly, I don’t see anywhere Beltran wins this; he has nowhere near the level of skill or timing traditionally needed to overcome a significant hand speed disadvantage and is way too easy to hit.
Parlaying him in with a smaller favorite wouldn’t be a bad idea.
If you have to bet on the main event, do it on Weidman. The man is a grappling prodigy, and I’m not throwing that word around lightly. As a purple belt, with only two years of jiu-jitsu experience, he gave Andre Galvao everything he could handle. For reference, Galvao won the absolute division this year and beat Rousimar Palhares, who had leglocked all three of his other opponents. Plus, I think his wrestling translated better to MMA than Munoz’s did. Of course, Munoz only needs to be on top for about a minute or so to turn a man’s face and torso into raspberry jam, so don’t count him out.
Too close to call in my book to be worth betting on.
UFC on FUEL TV 4 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Dillashaw and Te Huna -- Bet $100 to make $50
- Single Bet: Tamura -- Bet $30 to make $57
- Parlay: Dillashaw and Caceres -- Bet $40 to make $90
Hump Day is a fine day for hurtin.’
See you then, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FUEL TV 4 results later this evening, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.