SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA - MARCH 03: Demetrious Johnson of the USA falls to the ground at the end of his fight during the UFC On FX flyweight bout between Demetrious Johnson and Ian McCall at Allphones Arena on March 3, 2012 in Sydney, Australia. (Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images)
A "Mighty Mouse" and a "Creepy Uncle" walk into a bar ... nah.
After a tabulation error deprived mixed martial arts (MMA) fans of a fourth round in their exciting back-and-forth clash at UFC on FX 2, Flyweight sluggers Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson will go at it once again this Friday night (June 8, 2012), headlining UFC on FX 3 from the Bank Atlantic Center in Sunrise, Florida.
The winner of the 125-pound bout will get a crack at Joseph Benavidez in the promotion's inaugural flyweight title bout. In addition, Charlie Brenneman will look to derail another hyped prospect when he takes on Erick Silva, while Scott Jorgensen looks to hand Eddie Wineland his third straight defeat.
As usual, quality combat means another opportunity to shred some cheddar.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on FX 3: "McCall vs. Johnson" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming MMA match ups this Friday in the "Sunshine State:"
UFC on FX 3 Odds for the Under Card:
Jake Hecht (-135) vs. Sean Pierson (+105)
Leonard Garcia (-200) vs. Matt Grice (+160)
Seth Baczynski (-140) vs. Lance Benoist (+110)
Henry Martinez (-170) vs. Bernardo Magalhaes (+150)
Buddy Roberts (-115) vs. Caio Magalhaes (-115)
Mike Pierce (-250) vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha (+190)
Jared Papazian (-125) vs. Dustin Pague (-105)
Tim Means (-170) vs. Justin Salas (+140)
Thoughts: There are many tight fights, but there’s definitely still money to be made. Your best bets here are Papazian and Pierson.
Pague honestly strikes me as way more outgunned than a -105 line would indicate. Papazian not only has more experience, but he’s faced much tougher opposition and more than held his own. His takedown defense has proven solid enough to make a Pague grapplewrecking unlikely and, while not the hardest puncher, Papazian has the technical chops to make "The Disciple’s" day long and unpleasant. Put some down on "The Jackhammer."
I feel that Pierson is being undervalued based on his recent efforts. Dong Hyun Kim, despite not being regarded as a solid striker, had him in all sorts of trouble, and Ellenberger knocked him clean out. Thing is, both those guys are really friggin’ good, and DHK had huge amounts of trouble bringing Pierson to the mat. His chin may be a bit shaky, but his wrestling and striking are solid, and I feel he outclasses Hecht in the latter area. He’s worth a look, straight up or in a parlay.
UFC on FX 3 Odds for the Main Card:
Thoughts: Nice, evenly-matched main card. Let’s take a look.
While Wineland has been beaten soundly in his past two fights by wrestlers, both of the men who defeated him are far better strikers than Scott Jorgensen. Wineland’s takedown defense has been steadily improving and he seems more comfortable throwing while defending the takedown. Benavidez had success on the feet against him, but Jorgensen doesn’t have Joseph’s speed or technical proficiency. I like Wineland for the upset here and recommend putting a small amount on him.
I expect Pyle to beat Neer a bit more handily than the odds indicate, but I don’t recommend you put much if any money on it. Pyle is disconcertingly inconsistent; he looked like a million bucks against Hathaway, then looked decidedly "meh" against Almeida. Unless the odds start slipping more towards even, I recommend leaving this one alone.
As impressive as Silva’s looked in the UFC, I feel that his 69-second ZUFFA career hasn’t shown us enough to make betting on one of his fights a wise endeavor. He hasn’t faced anyone with Brenneman’s wrestling prowess; the closest was Ramos, and that fight ended too quickly for us to get an idea of what Silva’s defensive grappling is like. For all the hype behind him, a lot of his style is still an enigma, and Brenneman excels at crushing hype trains. Leave this one alone.
It’s not nearly as tasty as the ridiculously skewed lines for their first bout, but I like McCall as the underdog. One thing that Ian does extremely well is adapt; he has a habit of dropping the first round of his bouts before taking over, as demonstrated by the third round their first fight and Ian’s bout with Jussier Da Silva. He’s demonstrated the ability to take Johnson down and outgrapple him once there, and while he really got into the swing of things a bit too late in the first fight, I anticipate him picking up right where he left off and punishing "Mighty Mouse" on the ground. McCall is worth a bet.
UFC on FX 3 Best Bets:
- Parlay: Sean Pierson and Jared Papazian -- Bet $40 to make $107.60
- Single Bet: Eddie Wineland -- Bet $50 to make $95
- Single Bet: Ian McCall -- Bet $100 to make $125
- Single Bet: Jared Papazian -- Bet $125 to make $100
Friday night’s alright for fighting -- see you then, Maniacs!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FX 3 results this Saturday, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.