He's baaaaack ...
After a crushing knockout loss to former champion and eternal nemesis Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard has returned from his wanderings to once more stake his claim among the Lightweight elite. Standing in his way is former contender Clay Guida, who will attempt to stop "The Bully" in the main event of UFC on FX 4, which will go down this Friday (June 22, 2012) from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey.
In addition, Spencer Fisher and Sam Stout will complete their incredible trilogy in the co-featured fight of the night, while fan-favorites Ross Pearson and Brian Ebersole look to climb their way up their respective divisions.
And we've found some profit to be made on it.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on FX 4: "Maynard vs. Guida" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming mixed martial arts (MMA) match ups this weekend:
UFC On FX 4 Odds For The Under Card:
Dan Miller (-450) vs. Ricardo Funch (+300)
Ramsey Nijem (-340) vs. C.J. Keith (+260)
Nick Catone (-185) vs. Chris Camozzi (+155)
Hatsu Hioki (-225) vs. Ricardo Lamas (+175)
Joey Gambino (-125) vs. Steven Siler (-105)
Matt Brown (-225) vs. Luis Ramos (+175)
Rick Story (-360) vs. Brock Jardine (+280)
Thoughts: Damn, that is a LOT of grapplers. The two who catch my eye are the ones fighting strikers.
I honestly don’t see why Ramos is the underdog here aside from lack of recognition and his fight with Erick Silva, who has since proven himself to be a complete badass. Seriously, when was the last time Brown beat anyone who could grapple worth a damn -- Pete Sell? James Wilks? Pretty much every single other person with even a modicum of submission talent has beaten him, and he’s shown no signs of improvement (outgrappling Stephen Thompson doesn’t count). Sure, Ramos may not have the best chin, but I highly doubt Brown will get a chance to test it.
Bet on the Brazilian.
Joey Gambino was a tasty underdog just a couple of hours ago, but he still strikes me as an excellent bargain. He’s coming into his UFC debut, sure, and is giving up a decent amount of height to Siler, but he is a top-tier prospect with an excellent wrestling game. With Siler’s propensity for working out of the clinch, Gambino should have plenty of chances to work his takedowns, and I don’t anticipate Siler stopping him for long.
UFC On FX 4 Odds For The Main Card:
Thoughts: In all seriousness, this is one hell of a main card. Let’s see what’s in store.
Ebersole at -220 is, for lack of a better word, delicious. While he’s a little too gung-ho about his submission defense, he’s got more than enough takedown defense to steer clear of Waldburger’s lethal submission game and enough pop in his strikes to take advantage of T.J.’s glass jaw.
Stick "Hairrow" in a parlay.
And if you’re wondering who to stick him in a parlay with, Pearson is your man. I just don’t see how someone as historically inconsistent as Swanson can be worth this little against Pearson. I can understand some of it, sure -- Pearson’s DUI and rather "meh" debut at 145 pounds may be enough to give pause. Thing is, he’s still better than Swanson at damn near everything. I’ll be baffled if he doesn’t win this easily.
I’m fond of both Stout and Fisher, but I cannot in good conscience recommend putting your money anywhere within a 100 yards of this fight. Fisher is 1-4 in his last five, making a bet on him ill-advised, but Stout just looked off against Thiago Tavares and, considering that Team Tompkins is winless since its leader’s death, putting the huge sum necessary to secure a worthwhile profit on him seems a bad idea.
Leave it alone.
I’m honestly trying to find some scenario where Guida wins this fight, but I just don’t see it. I want him to win, if only to make Takanori Gomi look better, but he’s just so completely outgunned here that it’s absurd. Maynard is bigger, stronger and hits harder. He is also the cleaner puncher and the better wrestler by a huge margin. Sure, Guida’s faster and might have a cardio advantage, but he doesn’t strike me as even presenting the problems Frankie Edgar did. Maynard will shut down his spastic movement with his wrestling a grind out a decision.
Might as well put him in a parlay.
UFC On FX 4 Best Bets
- Single Bet: Luis Ramos -- Bet $60 to make $105
- Parlay: Luis Ramos and Joey Gambino -- Bet $40 to make $158
- Parlay: Brian Ebersole and Ross Pearson -- Bet $50 to make $55
- Parlay: Gray Maynard and Joey Gambino -- Bet $50 to make $66
Nothing like an Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) double header to sweeten the weekend.
See you Friday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FX 4 results this Friday, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.