So I took some deserved flack for entitling my previous article a "gift" to mania and guaranteeing that my 4 star picks would go undefeated. We'll I got slapped down like a bitch betting on UFC on Fox last Saturday and only won like 3 out of 7 fights I believe. I actually lost every bet though, cause I had my 4 star "guaranteed" pick (Ferguson) in every parlay. Needless to say that didn't work out too well and I lost $160. I was on a mega-hot streak before Saturday and I honestly did believe that giving out my picks was a gift. I get unusually arrogant and confident when I'm on a streak. It gets to the point sometimes where I briefly and only briefly contend that I could make a living betting on MMA, but then a weekend like the last comes and I return from my high horse. Anyways, I know my picks went about the opposite of what I had hoped, but I hope that you will take a look at the remainder. I take pride in my gambling and have to this point won more than I have lost. 4 stars= Love this fight: bet big: majority to almost all parlays. 3 star: moderate to large bet: include in 2/3's of parlays. 2 star: small wager: only include in small wager but several fighter parlays for example a $5 parlay on a 5-12 fighter parlay. Again please note that if one of the mentioned fighters does not make weight, at the least don't bet on him. Personally, I have had success betting against fighters who miss weight (for obvious reasons). You'll see that I mainly pick favorites, but sometimes see an underdog that I not only think the odds are out of whack but that they will straight up win the fight (these are my favorite picks. I generally don't make too much money on individual bets, but instead find 4 to 12 fights spread out though out several events and parlay them. This used to be easy due to gaming sites releasing several lines far in advance, but they have pulled way back on this practice in very recent years. I've been a member of mania for several years (mainly a reader, but I never miss a single article), and can honestly say that I feel at home here even though everyone else here is an opinionated asshole like myself who has been previously banned form BE like myself. On the real though I honestly do hope that you guys (and girl Sarah) can get some kind of gambling edge with my picks cause i wanna get paid, and it's more fun when others make money too off of one of your suggestions. On the other hand, if you wish me ill will, you can always reference this article with a smug sense of satisfaction when one of my 3 or 4 stars lose because you will know that my gambling $ has just taken a blow. Best of luck no matter what your picks.
UFC 146 May 26th
Velasquez: 2 star (the line is rough -450) but Velasquez should murder Silva. Save for parlays.
Hunt: 2 1/2 stars. Come on now, Hunt has a semi-six pack! That's freaking crazy. Dude is taking this for real now. Hunt knocks people out and Struve has recently shown that he is Very suseptable to the knock out.
Ultimate Fighter Live June 1st
Ellenberger: 2 stars (I really like Ellenberger to win, but -225 is not good pickins).
UFC on FX 3 June 8th
Erick Silva: 4 stars. I have made the mistake of waiting too long to see if a guy is for real or not (I bet against Jon Jones at UFC 94 because I wanted to wait a little longer to see if the hype was justified). Now I prefer to wait until they give me a reason to doubt them rather than vice versa. I am incredibly impressed by what I have seen out of Silva. Brenneman does pull off shockers (besting Story), but I really believe that Silva is a serious contender. I realize that he has not faced an accomplished wrestler and that Prater was a late replacement, so reservations are understood. However I'm a believer and am going all in
UFC on FX4 June 22
Lamas: 2 star. I still think Roop beat Hioki which is okay because it was his debut and realize that he won his second fight, but I like Lamas simply due to the fact that I think he'll be a huge underdog and will beat Hioki.
Maynard: 2 stars. He's better than Guida at everything, but the line is terrible at -370. Several parlays but no individual bet.
Story: 3 stars. This is a Massive step up in competition for Antonito. I don't know the line yet, but even if it's as ugly as -400, I still think Story is a strong play.
Nijem: 2 star. Admittedly, I don't know much about Keith and do not know the odds, but after seeing the way he manhandled Downes, I'm a believer.
UFC 148 July 7th (I will be attending this card so I will release a thoroughly researched post just for this event the week of). These picks are where I am currently leaning, but could change with rumored injuries, weight problems, change of camps, etc as the event draws nearer.
A. Silva: 3 stars. I do believe that Silva was hurt during the first fight and that Sonnen's testosterone levels played a significant factor in his success. Silva is straight up pissed and he's showing it for the first time (staredown with Belfort aside). The only thing that stopped me from giving this pick 4 stars is that I believe Sonnen really is crazy enough to show up juiced out of his mind again just to beat the Spider and back up his talk. Even if he blatantly juices an gets caught, he won't care. He could make a killing in the WWE especially after a win over the Spider no matter what the circumstances are and he knows it.
Le: 2 stars. Franklin has not impressed me in a very long time. And although Le has not either, +250 are fantastic odds against an average Franklin.
Maia: 3 stars. I still think dude's a beast and Kim is overrated. Plus Maia's an underdog. That's just stupid.
Barao: 3 stars unless odds are crazy ugly like -500, than only 2 stars.
Phippou: 2 1/2 stars. He's coming into his own and trains with Weidman. Fukuda lost to Ring and beat an irrelevant Cantwell.
Camoes:2 stars. He'll be a huge dog against Guillard and can easily pull off the submission.Besides the Blackzillians have not had an impressive streak inside the octagon what-so-ever.
UFC on Fuel TV 4 July 11
Te Huna: 4 stars. Brandon Vera has not done anything to impress me in many, many years. He simply looks good on paper but never delivers in person. He shouldn't have even been given the nod over Elliot freaking Marshall! Te Huna has not been beating world beaters in Rosa and Romero, but he has won 8 out of his last nine with his only loss being to Gustafsson. Te Huna is going to brutalize Vera and probably retire him (so one can hope).
Weidman: 2 1/2 stars. Munoz is 34 and Weidman is a little better at everything (in my opinion). I know Munoz has stronger wrestling credentials, but I believe that Weidman's MMA wrestling is better. This line should be around even money
UFC 149 July 21
Bisping: 4 stars. Bisping wins this 99 out of 100
UFC on Fox 4 Aug 4
Stann: 3 stars. No offense to Lombard, I just love betting against highly touted new comers no matter who is favored.
UFC 150 August 11
Edgar: 2 stars. Every time I bet against Edgar he bites me in the ass. I won't do it again.