First off of all, don't rec this shit. I'm going to put about as much effort into this as Arianny Celeste does to try and look pretty in a mugshot after kicking her boyfriend in the face. And besides, we all know Jesse Holland's shit is the shit.
My biggest prediction is that TUF Live Finale is going to suck as much the TV show. It's filled with borderline amateurs and scrubs who couldn't hold the attention span of a quadriplegic. Straight up, I'm not watching TUF Live live. I'm going to watch that crap on tape and fast-forward the horrible fights that are sure to occur when scrubs like Chris Tickle and Chris Saunders get into the cage.
That's why I'm simply listing the undercard and not offering reasons for any of the predictions. It's all a shot in the dark anyway with talent this thin.
MMAPlayground.com: Albert 834 (74%)/-240 vs Perez 300 (26%)/+215
No fucking clue. Roll the dice.
Albert by decision
Fuel TV fights
MMAPlayground.com: Proctor 989 (87%)/-410 vs Larsen 142 (13%)/+370
Proctor by decision (but Larsen is a good underdog bet)
MMAPlayground.com: Sicilia 773 (68%)/-200 vs Marcello 356 (32%)/+170
Only blind jutjitsu nuthuggers like ThePride will pick Marcello. The rest of us saw his girly standup and baby chin. Sam, meanwhile, was robbed in his fight by incompetent judges.
Sicilia by TKO round 2
MMAPlayground.com: Jury 849 (76%)/-210 vs Saunders 274 (24%)/+190
Although Jury is overrated, Saunders is the Chris Cope of season 15. As in, dog shit.
Jury by decision
MMAPlayground.com: Cruickshank 868 (77%)/-220 vs Tickle 253 (23%)/+195
Tickle is a choker. Literally.
Cruickshank by submission round 3
Main card on FX
MMAPlayground.com: Lawrence 869 (77%)/-250 vs Cofer 261 (23%)/+225
Put all your ducats on Cofer because Justin Lawrence is going down. We saw how little heart he has, how he faded badly in his last fight, and how one-dimensional he is. By contrast, Cofer fought perhaps the second best fight of the season against arguably the second-best fighter in the competition, Vince Pichel. Cofer is hugely underrated in this one.
Cofer by TKO round 3
MMAPlayground.com: Schilling 726 (54%)/-115 vs Holloway 617 (46%)/-125
Although Holloway got caught against Dustin Poirier, I think he has a lot of potential. Nobody really seems to know who's going to win in this one since we've only seen each fighter once, both in losing efforts. That's probably why it's the hot bout. Since I have to guess, I'm going to say that Holloway looked better in the standup and will win on points.
Holloway by decision
MMAPlayground.com: Oliveira 973 (68%)/-210 vs Brookins 462 (32%)/+190
Look, Charles Oliveira is a great little fighter. He's quick, dynamic, and has great jujitsu. But you have to know Brookins is gonna put it on him. He's going to come in, shoot takedowns all day long, and brings the ground and pound. If you're picking Oliveira, you better hope he pulls off the Sassangle, otherwise I'd put your money on Brookins. Easy money at +190.
Brookins by decision
MMAPlayground.com: Iaquinta 736 (64%)/-150 vs Chiesa 415 (36%)/+140
Man, Mike Chiesa has to be the luckiest TUF survivor of the entire 15 season series. He didn't have to fight Vince Pichel, Myles Jury or Iaquinta until now. His sloppy standup and comeback jujitsu might have worked against the weaker guys, but Iaquinta is on another level. This result isn't really in question.
Iaquinta by TKO round 2
MMAPlayground.com: Ellenberger 1144 (74%)/-220 vs Kampmann 410 (26%)/+195
This really feels like a fight between two recent losers than two winners. Jake Ellenberger had it put on him in a huge way by Diego Sanchez in their last fight, with the suggestion that if it had gone to a fourth round he would have been finished. Kampmann, meanwhile, was beaten up by Thiago Alves all three rounds before scoring a lucky gimme guillotine.
Having said that, these two fighters are both near the top of the division and it should be a good battle. Although Kampmann should be a solid match, I'm betting the takedowns of Ellenberger will make the difference if it goes all the way to decision. Jake also has the kind of power that could make Martin wilt under pressure, as he has done in the past against opponents who throw down.
Ellenberger by TKO round 4 (but put some money on Kampmann)