Unambig UFC on Fox 3 predictions and prognostications

I know what you're thinking (I always do). This is bullshit. Why are you wasting time and bandwidth putting up a UFC prediction post when Jesse Holland is just going to come along and do a better one?

Well, I don't know. Why did Tim Sylvia shit his pants inside the cage? Perhaps the simplest answer is that he could. And he did.

Without further ado, here are the predictions you've all been waiting for (except you, you cheater, and you know exactly who I'm referring to when I say you, don't you?).


Mike Massenzio (13-6) vs Karlos Vemola (8-2)

This one isn't as easy as everyone seems to think, which is that Vemola will walk through Massenzio. Although Karlos came into the UFC with a hyped up "Czech National Wrestling Champion" pedigree, he got outwrestled by a jujitsu guy. Funny, that. Except it wasn't because I picked Vemola in that fight. Which only goes to show that any guy with girly arms and half an ounce of heart can easily defeat a European. This contest will come down to one very single vital question: Can Vemola keep from getting taken down by Massenzio, and if so, can he knock him out?

I'm going to have to go with yes and no. Massenzio has shat more beds than Spud from Trainspotting. Nobody has as impressive a losing resume as Massenzio, dropping fights to a who's-who of the UFC middleweight division, while his only wins came against Steve Cantwell who, like the town bicycle, everybody's had a turn at, and Nate Kittredge. Whoever the fuck he is.

Massenzio should be able to hug legs long enough to keep from getting knocked out, but Vemola's wrestling and power should win the day. We hope.

Vemola by boring decision

Roland Delorme (7-1) vs Nick Denis (11-2)

This is Canadian on Canadian violence, and if it's anything like ordinary Canadian on Canadian violence, Nick Denis will accidentally bump into Roland Delorme and then apologize profusely for the mistake.

No, but seriously, Delorme is getting knocked the clear fuck out. If anybody remembers Nick's 20-second debut, he basically walked to the centre of the Octagon and elbowed Joseph Sandoval several times in the face, after which Joe obliged by going to sleep on the mat. I'd like to speak to Roland's chances here, but I can't think of any. Nick Denis has 10 finishes by KO or TKO, so Roland had better bring his granite chin to work Saturday.

Denis by KO round 2


Dennis Bermudez (7-3) vs Pablo Garza (11-2)

Another tough call. Which is pretty much how any of these "UFC on some channel" events go. Do we pick the unproven Bermudez who, although he stunned Diego Brandao badly before getting submitted in the TUF 14 finale, is on a three-fight losing streak? Or do we pick a man for whom the term anorexic bulemic would not be out of place? I'll have to go with the latter for one simple reason: Bermudez has choked, literally, in two of his last three fights, while Garza is a submission guy.

Bermudez has a well-rounded game, but has shown he is vulnerable to the submissions. Garza only has a purple belt, but try telling that to Yves Jabouin after he got strangled by a flying triangle.

Garza by Sub Round 3

Danny Castillo (13-4) vs John Cholish (8-1)

Ugh. Mirror, mirror on the wall, who doth suck the bag most of all? Well, Cholish looked good in his UFC debut, finishing Mitch Clarke in the second round. Which would be great except, who the fuck is Mitch Clarke? Meanwhile, Castillo has defeated proven fighters like Anthony Njokuani, Joe Daddy, and frikkin Dustin Poirier, albeit two years ago. I think he can handle laying on John for three rounds.

Danny's only recent loss, in fact, has come at the expense of Jacob Volkmann, who is his superior when it comes to the lay and pray racket. Fortunately, I think Castillo made good use of that lesson and will use it on Cholish.

Castillo by lay and pray to Allah

Louis Goudinot (5-2) vs John Lineker (19-5)

This is another one of those... who the hell are these guys... kind of fights. And although Lineker has a very impressive streak of beating cans in Brazil, I don't have the courage to pick against the overwhelming number of people who seem to think he's going to win. And if there's anything you should have learned about me by now, it's that I'm easily swayed by popular opinion.

Lineker by decision, I guess

John Hathaway (15-1) vs Pascal Krauss (10-0)

Look, I don't give a shit who Pascal has beaten in Belgium or Leichtenstein. This is America, and he's fighting John Hathaway (who is British, but never mind that). Hathaway has bona fides, defeating none other than Diego Sanchez. He also dispatched Rick Story and Paul Taylor.

I'm sure Krauss has a really nice record and all, but so did John Hathaway before he met Mike Pyle. Hathaway will now be playing the part of Mike Pyle in this match, while Krauss will be playing the part of Hathaway. I know it's confusing, but all you have to know is that Krauss loses.

Hathaway by his bread and butter, decision

John Dodson (12-5) vs Tim Elliott (8-2)

Don't know, don't care. May the best midget win.

(But if you really need a reason, Dodson looked spectacular in TUF 14)

Dodson by decision, maybe or maybe not

Tony Ferguson (13-2) vs Michael Johnson (10-6)

I think Johnson is being overlooked here. Not only for how he handled Shane Roller, but his demonstrable improvement in that fight. Still, Ferguson has looked great in the standup in his UFC fights so far. Not finish-worthy, but he should be able to squeak out a win here.

Ferguson by decision


Finally. God that undercard was peppered with nobodies. I may need serious caffeine to get through all that. Anyway, where was I? Ah yes...

Pat Barry (7-4) vs Levar Johnson (16-5)

Barry is reckless, short, careless (which is like reckless), small (which is like short), and reckless. Johnson delivered Joey Beltran his first KO loss. You do the math.

Although Pat Barry always goes tits to the wall in his fights, which makes them fun to watch, he's wound up on the wrong side of four of his eight UFC fights. Another yardstick is the manner in which Barry and Johnson both fought Beltran, with the more aggressive Johnson looking much better.

Johnson by brutal KO Round 1

Rousimar Palhares (14-3) vs Alan Belcher (17-6)

Gotta be honest guys, I see the upset here and I think most of you do, too. Belcher is a bona fide black belt and you know if he took this fight he's been training heel hooks with Duke Roufas every fucking second of every day. Plus Belcher trains with lay and pray grandmaster Ben Askren. So, I think you see where this fight is headed.

I'm sure there will be some scary scenes and moments where viewer discretion is advised, but I think Belcher avoids the dreaded career-enders. It has been done before, mainly from fighters who know their jujitsu in and out, like Dan Miller and Nate Marquardt.

Belcher by decision

Josh Koscheck (17-5) vs Johny Hendricks (12-1)

The former TUF 1 jerkoff who exposed the daddy issues of Chris Leben has managed to win in a wrestlefuck division for about seven years now. That's because most people at the top of the 170 pound division have wrestling but little power. But it all ends Saturday night. Hendricks has real power, and Koscheck has shown he's not immune to getting put to sleep.

You know Josh is going to go for takedowns, and after winning numerous split decisions he's probably unable to remember the last time he got knocked out. History lesson: It was Paulo Thiago at UFC 95. I just think Johny wants this more than Josh. And cocky boy will never see it coming. Then he'll deny getting knocked out and feign an eye injury. But it'll be too late.

Hendricks by KO Round 2

Nate Diaz (15-7) vs Jim Miller (21-3)

If this were a three round fight, I might say Miller would win. But it isn't. He will have 209 on his ass for 25 minutes, and that is a lot of 209 to deal with over the course of a half hour. I know Miller has said Cerrone's mistake was not taking this to the ground but, honestly, it's a fucking mistake wherever you go with a Diaz brother. If it's standing, Diaz is going to light Miller up like a Jamaican spliff. If it goes to the ground then Miller better bring his black belt.

This is going to be an exciting fight. I can't imagine it disappointing like older Diaz and the Gingerbread Man.

Diaz by decision and Lightweight Title shot

That's it. Spew your hate below.

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