Hello, "Diamond" Tuesday.
And there’s only one way to do that.
In the main event of UFC on FUEL TV 3, Korean slugger Chan Sung Jung and American wrecking machine Dustin Poirier will collide in a fantastic 145-pound showdown. In addition, striking specialists Jeremy Stephens and Donald Cerrone will look to bounce back from recent defeats to title challengers Nate Diaz and Anthony Pettis, respectively, in the second-best main card attraction.
As usual, there’s profit to be made in this senseless cavalcade of mixed martial arts (MMA) violence.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on FUEL TV 3: "Korean Zombie vs. Poirier" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming MMA match ups tomorrow night (May 15, 2012) at the Patriot Center in Fairfax, Virginia:
UFC on FUEL TV 3 Odds for the Under Card:
Marcus LeVesseur (-115) vs. Cody McKenzie (-115)
Rafael dos Anjos (-300) vs. Kamal Shalorus (+230)
Jeff Curran (-135) vs. Johnny Eduardo (+105)
T.J. Grant (-450) vs. Carlo Prater (+325)
Brad Tavares (-175) vs. Dongi Yang (+145)
Francisco Rivera (-240) vs. Alex Soto (+190)
Thoughts: Marcus LeVesseur. Holy crap, Marcus LeVesseur.
Yes, he's making his Octagon debut. And yes, he's making it on short notice; however, he's about as bad a match up for McKenzie as possible on this level. I'm not sold on LeVesseur's jaw, but McKenzie is not the man to test it. To put it bluntly, LeVesseur needs to do something colossally stupid to lose this fight ... and that's just not going to happen.
Bet heavy on LeVesseur.
As far as the others, the best values besides LeVesseur are probably Yang (small bet/longshot parlay) and dos Anjos (parlay stuffer). Dos Anjos is about as close to a lock as you're likely to find and Yang's power is enough to make him worth at least a pittance.
UFC on FUEL TV 3 Odds for the Main Card:
Yves Jabouin (-230) vs. Jeff Hougland (+180)
Fabio Maldonado (-170) vs. Igor Pokrajac (+140)
Tom Lawlor (-250) vs. Jason Macdonald (+195)
Amir Sadollah (-200) vs. Jorge Lopez (+160)
Donald Cerrone (-275) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+215)
Dustin Poirier (-350) vs. Chan Sung Jung (+265)
Thoughts: Entertaining line up of fights in store. Let's take a deeper dive.
As ugly as his fight with Walel Watson was, I think Jabouin is worth a bet even at those odds. Hougland's been out of the game for 10 months and hasn't faced anyone with the striking prowess of Jabouin. And while the latter hasn't secured a stoppage in four years, I have a good feeling about this one. His takedown defense has thus far proven sound, stifling Ian Loveland (a man who gave Joseph Benavidez trouble), and he should be able to have his way with Hougland standing.
Stick him in a parlay.
Maldonado has been out of the game for a year and is most likely better suited for Middleweight, but I'll be stunned if he doesn't spank Pokrajac. His takedown defense has improved leaps and bounds since joining the UFC and his power is unquestionable. Further, his chin is fantastic, meaning Pokrajac is not putting him away with strikes. Finally, his cardio was fine against Kyle Kingsbury despite a similarly-extensive layoff.
Maldonado is definitely worth a bet.
I like both Lawlor and MacDonald, but for the love of your deity of choice, don't put money on these guys. Both men are incredibly hit-or-miss, and even with the odds as lopsided as they are, there's no money to be made here. Leave this one alone.
While I'm pretty sure I'm just biased toward Lopez because he's the protege of Wanderlei Silva, I think he's got just enough of a shot to make this fight not worth betting on. I'm not saying he'll win, but his chances strike me as too good to bet on Sadollah and too poor to bet on him. I don't think we saw the best of Lopez in his debut, and his striking could give Sadollah a headache.
Still, I'd recommend leaving this be.
If you have to bet on the "real" co-main event, which I don't recommend, do it on Stephens. While Cerrone has the length and technical striking to leave Stephens more frustrated than Wilt Chamberlain in a convent, "Cowboy" has a bad habit of throwing that away in favor of slinging hands. And while I'm a known Takanori Gomi fanatic, I argue that nobody in the entire Lightweight division hits like Stephens. If Cerrone leaves himself as open as he did against Nate Diaz, he's going to eat canvas. That said, Cerrone is still just a bit too skilled for my tastes for me to advocate putting money down on Stephens, and the odds are too lopsided for a Cerrone bet to be worth it.
While the size and strength of Poirier have me somewhat worried, I don't think the "Korean Zombie" is getting a fair shake here. I agree that he's probably the superior striker, but I'd argue that the grappling of Jung is enough to make him worth a small bet. Poirier thus far hasn't had to deal with someone of this grappling aptitude aside from Josh Grispi, who apparently left his soul back in the World Extreme Cagefighting (WEC).
Poirier probably wins more often than not, but a small bet on Jung isn't a bad idea.
UFC on FUEL TV 3 Best Bets:
- Single Bet: Chan Sung Jung -- Bet $20 to make $53
- Parlay: Yves Jabouin and Marcus LeVesseur -- Bet $50 to make $84.12
- Single Bet: Marcus LeVesseur -- Bet $115 to make $100
- Parlay: Rafael dos Anjos and Fabio Maldonado -- Bet $50 to make $55.88
I honestly prefer "The Punching Dead" to "The Walking Dead."
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FUEL TV 3 results tomorrow night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
See you then, Maniacs.