It’s good to be back.
After a painful six-week hiatus, Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will once again grace our television sets this Saturday (April 14, 2012) with its second mixed martial arts (MMA) event on FUEL TV, which will take place at the Ericsson Globe Arena in Stockholm, Sweden.
Light Heavyweight standouts Alexander Gustafsson vs. Thiago Silva will headline UFC on FUEL TV 2, while international bangers will get to strut their stuff when Paulo Thiago welcomes Siyar Bahadurzada to the Octagon and Diego Nunes welcomes Dennis Siver to the Featherweight division.
All in all, we’ve got a hell of a night lined up. And, as always, there’s money to be made if you take the time do to a little digging.
Join us after the break for an in-depth look at the odds behind UFC on FUEL TV 2: "Gustafsson vs. Silva" as we examine the betting lines for the upcoming myriad MMA match ups:
UFC ON FUEL TV 2 ODDS FOR THE UNDER CARD:
Papy Abedi (-285) vs. James Head (+225)
Jason Young (-150) vs. Eric Wisely (+120)
Reza Madadi (-200) vs. Yoislandy Izquierdo (+160)
Simeon Thoresen (-340) vs. Besam Yousef (+260)
Francis Carmont (-250) vs. Magnus Cedenblad (+190)
DaMarques Johnson (-115) vs. John Maguire (-115)
Tom DeBlass (-205) vs. Cyrille Diabate (+165)
Thoughts: Overall, these odds seem fair. For the majority of the fights, I don’t see anything that can confidently produce a good profit. I do, however, feel that there’s money to be made on Madadi, Wisely and Maguire.
The odds were much better for "Mad Dog" earlier in the day, but even at -200, it’s a steal. Izquierdo just doesn’t have anywhere near the sort of grappling game or takedown defense you need to hang with Madadi, nor does he have the experience or strength of schedule. Both men will almost certainly have some ring rust, but Madadi will be fighting in his home country.
Go big on Madadi, straight or in a parlay.
Yes, Young is a great striker and yes, there’s an argument to be made that he beat Dustin Poirier. The fact remains that he’s been submitted three times, has never beaten anyone worth a darn, and is 2-3 in his last five appearances. He’s giving up size, experience and grappling ability to Wisely, who has faced and beaten far better.
Another one worth a fair investment on.
For some odd reason, Maguire was an underdog earlier in the day. Considering the grappling prowess he demonstrated in his UFC debut and Johnson’s horrendous inconsistency, even these odds seem too favorable to the latter. Nobody will argue that Johnson isn’t exciting, but he’s got seven submission losses and is taking on a damn good submissions specialist. Maybe the odds are skewed because Maguire was hurt against Edwards. I don’t know.
In any case, -115 is a steal. Get it while it’s hot.
UFC ON FUEL TV 2 ODDS FOR THE MAIN CARD:
Brad Pickett (-225) vs. Damacio Page (+175)
Paulo Thiago (-170) vs. Siyar Bahadurzada (+140)
Diego Nunes (-175) vs. Dennis Siver (+145)
Brian Stann (-412) vs. Alessio Sakara (+325)
Alexander Gustafsson (-225) vs. Thiago Silva (+196)
Thoughts: It may not have the biggest names, but this main card is loaded to the brim with the potential for fireworks. Let’s take a closer look.
Even at -225, Pickett strikes me as close enough to a lock to warrant a gamble. A lot is made of Page’s power, but under the ZUFFA banner, he has a grand total of one knockout. Further, he’s been out of action for more than one year and his submission defense is garbage. Pickett did get whooped on good by Renan Barao, but he’d also been out of it for a while and Renan is, for lack of a better word, a friggin’ monster. Page is outgunned on the feet in terms of technique and hopelessly outclassed on the ground.
Pickett is worth sticking in a parlay.
My advice for the next three fights is to stay clear. Paulo Thiago vs. Siyar Bahadurzada is too close to call in my book, considering Siyar has been out for 10 months and is making his debut, which offsets his power advantage enough for me to keep my wallet shut. While I think Siver can handily beat Nunes, since the latter has no stopping power to speak of, Siver’s making the cut to 145 pounds for the first time, again prompting me to avoid his fight. With regard to Brian Stann vs. Alessio Sakara, my personal theory is that in a clash between two power-punchers of similar technical skill, pick the more durable one. Can Stann take Sakara’s best shot? Maybe. Can Sakara take Stann’s? No. Still, -412 is too far out there and Sakara’s chances too slim for his +325 to be worthwhile.
For all that’s going against him, I honestly think Silva is worth at least a small wager. I’m not sure if he can handle "The Mauler" standing, but I’m quite certain he has a huge advantage on the ground. Despite being out of the game for one year, he easily ragdolled a strong Greco-Roman practitioner in Brandon Vera, and what he did once he got him down was straight out of a snuff film. Further, while Gustafsson had little trouble shrugging off Matt Hamill’s takedown attempts, he did have his hands full with James Te Huna’s, which I attribute to the fact that James, unlike Hamill, is a threat standing.
And Silva is a pretty damn big threat standing.
It wouldn’t surprise me in the least to see Gustafsson paste him with a right hand, but I consider it sufficiently likely that Silva drags him down and beats the stuffing out of him to warrant putting money on it.
UFC ON FUEL TV 2 BEST BETS:
- Parlay: Eric Wisely and John Maguire -- Bet $70 to make $217.70
- Single Bet: Reza Madadi -- Bet $140 to make $70
- Parlay: Reza Madadi and Brad Pickett -- Bet $60.34 to make $70
- Single Bet: Thiago Silva -- Bet $40 to make $78.40
It’s springtime, the second season of "Game of Thrones" has started and the UFC is back. Times be good, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FUEL TV 2: "Gustafsson vs. Silva" results this Saturday afternoon, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.
See you then!