"The fight they weren't seeking -- just became the most important fight of their lives."
You've heard the promo spot for UFC 143 a hundred times, if you've been watching Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) events during the last month.
Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit were both supposed to fight Georges St. Pierre for his title last year. However, because of injuries and unforeseen circumstances, neither of them got their wish. The consolation prize? They now get to fight each other for the interim belt at the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada, this weekend (Feb. 4, 2012) in "Sin City."
These two very dangerous welterweights will battle in what could likely be the "Fight of the Year," with the end result, most likely, being that the winner will face "Rush" upon his return.
Who will bring the statistical advantage into the cage when they do battle on Saturday night? Roll up your sleeves and whip out your calculators because it's time to crunch numbers.
Check out a complete statistical breakdown of the UFC 143 main event between Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit after the jump:
The expert analysts at CompuStrike worked hard to help bring us an extra special edition of "Behind the Numbers" for this fantastic number one contender eliminator match. The numbers procured have been based on 14 fight averages for Nick Diaz and 10 fight averages for Carlos Condit.
First, let's analyze the overall striking game of both fighters:
Diaz -- 127 of 242
Condit -- 50 of 99
Diaz -- 53 percent
Condit -- 51 percent
Total Power Strikes Landed:Diaz -- 95
Condit -- 22
Total Non-Power Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 32
Condit -- 28
The accuracy is comparable, but Diaz throws a much larger volume of strikes and lands many more power strikes when he gets in the cage.
That's the overall striking picture. Here's what the arm strikes look like:
Total Arm Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 98 of 197
Condit -- 7 of 24
Percentage of Arm Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 50 percent
Condit -- 29 percent
Power Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 74
Condit -- 4
Non-Power Strikes LandedDiaz -- 24
Condit -- 3
Wow. It's not a huge surprise that Diaz would hold the edge here, but this is a vast differential.
The leg strikes category does not fare a whole lot better for Condit:
Total Leg Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 16 of 23
Condit -- 9 of 21
Percentage of Leg Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 70 percent
Condit -- 43 percent
Power Leg Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 12
Condit -- 4
Non-Power Leg Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 4
Condit -- 5
Everyone knows Nick Diaz is dangerous on the ground. His submission game is slick and deceptive. He generally prefers to stand and bang, but if things go south, he has no problem rolling with the best of them.
Just ask Takanori Gomi (about both Diaz brothers).
Here's what the ground game comparison looks like:
Ground Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 13 of 22
Condit -- 34 of 54
Diaz -- 59 percent
Condit -- 63 percent
Power Ground Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 9
Condit -- 14
Non-Power Ground Strikes Landed:
Diaz -- 4
Condit -- 20
Diaz -- 9 of 32 (28 percent)
Condit -- 5 of 8 (63 percent)
Diaz -- 10
Condit -- 13
Diaz -- 17
Condit -- 17
The statistics show Condit to shoot for a higher percentage of takedowns. His ground and pound also appears to have the advantage.
"The Natural Born Killer" has won 13 of his 27 fights via submission, so he's no beginner on the mat. Diaz has won eight fights by submission during his career, but again, he'd rather stand in the pocket and trade if it's up to him.
So, are these the findings you would have predicted? Or are you at all thrown for a loop? Does this sway you in your decision? Who ya got?