Two days, 21 fights ... free!
With two seasons of The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) coming to a close at approximately the same time -- albeit in completely separate hemispheres -- Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) has elected to hold both Finale mixed martial arts (MMA) events back-to-back in a single weekend.
Tomorrow (Fri., Dec. 14, 2012), Ross Pearson, George Sotiropoulos and their respective "Smashes" understudies will settle their differences at UFC on FX 6, which is scheduled to take place at the at the Gold Coast Convention and Exhibition Centre in Broadbeach, Queensland, Australia. The very next day (Sat., Dec. 15, 2012), Roy Nelson will collide with Shane Carwin substitute Matt Mitrione in TUF 16 Finale main event at "The Joint" inside the Hard Rock Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas, Nevada.
Both events have plenty of high-octane fights on tap, not to mention some serious opportunities for profit.
Follow me for a closer look at the odds behind UFC on FX 6 and TUF 16 Finale:
UFC On FX 6 Odds For The Under Card:
Igor Pokrajac (-450) vs. Joey Beltran (+300)
Mike Pierce (-300) vs. Seth Baczynski (+240)
Ben Alloway (-220) vs. Manuel Rodriguez (+170)
Mike Wilkinson (-225) vs. Brendan Loughnane (+175)
Cody Donovan (-115) vs. Nick Penner (-115)
Chad Mendes (-1400) vs. Yaotzin Meza (+700)
TUF 16 Finale Odds For The Under Card:
Rustam Khabilov (-300) vs. Vinc Pichel (+240)
T.J. Waldburger (-140) vs. Nick Catone (+110)
Mike Pyle (-285) vs. James Head (+225)
Tim Elliott (-200) vs. Jared Papazian (+160)
Mike Rio (-200) vs. John Cofer (+160)
Hugo Viana (-155) vs. Reuben Duran (+125)
Thoughts: When I first saw the odds on Head, I squealed a little bit. That’s the best bet I’ve seen since the Issei Tamura vs. Tiequan Zhang fight that I made bank on. I don’t just think Head is more likely to win this fight than the odds show; in fact, I’m fairly certain that Head is going to win ... period. He’s bigger than Pyle, stronger than Pyle and a much better striker.
Go big on Head.
Duran is also a fantastic bargain. As much as I love watching "Wolverine" fight, Duran is the better wrestler and a much more technical striker. Even with the massive layoff, he’s just plain better than Viana. Play him straight or stick him in a parlay with Head for amazing results.
As far as the FX under card, nothing really stands out to me aside from maybe cramming Pierce into a parlay or two to beef up the odds a bit.
UFC On FX 6 Odds For The Main Card:
TUF 16 Finale Odds For The Main Card:
Roy Nelson (-260) vs. Matt Mitrione (+200)
Jamie Varner (-140) vs. Melvin Guillard (+110)
Dustin Poirier (-290) vs. Jonathan Brookins (+230)
Mike Ricci (-290) vs. Colton Smith (+230)
Shane del Rosario (-200) vs. Pat Barry (+260)
Thoughts: Nothing quite as dramatically enticing as on the under card, but there are good bets to be made on the main card, namely Pearson, Mitrione and Brookins.
Sotiropoulos is absolutely lethal on the ground. And should he take down Pearson, it’ll be academic from there. The problem is that his chin is garbage -- Dennis Siver had him badly hurt on multiple occasions, Rafael dos Anjos put him to sleep with one shot, and Tommy Speer took him out way back on TUF 6. Pearson doesn’t pack much stopping power, but when he’s on, he’s incredibly slick on the feet and difficult to take down.
He’ll find the G-Sots jaw ... bet on it.
As impressive as Nelson’s UFC knockouts have been, the fact remains that he’s slow as molasses and has some pretty poor takedowns. Plus, Mitrione has a nine-inch reach advantage and the footwork to use it. While him putting "Big Country" to sleep is unlikely, a decision victory is certainly within the realm of possibility.
Therefore, a medium-sized bet on "Meathead" wouldn’t be the worst idea.
Poirier has looked like a wrecking machine at 145 pounds, but the Chan Sung Jung fight showcased an enormous hole in his game: He’s weak to trip takedowns. Brookins may be slow and awkward, but he’s tough as nails and quite good at trip takedowns.
Don’t make Brookins the cornerstone of your weekend betting, but put a handful on him for good measure.
UFC Best Bets For The Weekend:
- Parlay: James Head and Reuben Duran -- Bet $50 to make $315.50
- Single Bet: James Head -- Bet $60 to make $135
- Parlay: Ross Pearson and Mike Pierce -- Bet $50 to make $79.50
- Single Bet: Matt Mitrione -- Bet $40 to make $80
- Single Bet: Jonathan Brookins -- Bet $30 to make $69
Nothing like getting some last-minute gift-getting money with your free fights.
See you this weekend, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC on FX 6 and TUF 16 Finale results Friday and Saturday nights (here and here), which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.