In a mixed martial arts fight, anything can happen, even more so than boxing. A fighter has to worry about the takedown, kicks, punches, and the grappling and so on and so forth. During the fight, moves are calculated and setup to a certain extent. However, the difference between a strike resulting in a devastating knockout or one that just misses the opponent is a slight mistake in movement by the opponent, closing of the distance by the striker, accuracy, set-up, and feints to deceive the opponent (as well as other factors). It is these factors that determine whether a punch can be considered calculated or simply a lucky one.
I am here to open the discussion of the latter: the lucky punch. I am not talking about any punch. I am not talking about a Frankie "let me score some points" punch. I am not talking about a George "jab to death" punch. And for the love of God, I am not talking about a Jake "thumbs up" punch.
I am talking about a punch that is swung with the full intention of finishing the opponent. Can a punch swung with the intention of finishing the opponent be considered lucky? The fighter threw it with the intentions of landing and with the intentions of finishing him. How could it be considered lucky?
I'll tell you how. A punch has a certain chance of finishing. This chance is determined by certain techniques that accompany the punch. A punch swung out of range has 0% chance landing. If the distance is closed, you've just increased your chances a bit. If your punch is aimed towards the chin, you've increased it a bit more.
If you increase the power of the punch, you've increased it a bit more(although depending on the strike, it could take away from your accuracy). If your eyes stay on your opponent while you swing, it increases a bit more.Set up the strike with feints and your chances are increased as well.
via cdn0.sbnation.com (This gif doesn't really show it, but he made him flinch with the right hand)
As you can tell depending how a punch(strike) is thrown, can affect the chances of it landing AND finishing the opponent. Therefore, a punch thrown with a low chance of finishing, but yet it lands and finishes the opponent, is considered lucky. Because the chances of it happening were low. You say "well he threw it with intention of landing, and with the intention of finishing, and it did!! Hows that lucky?" Well I say to you my friend, I bought a lottery ticket the other day, with the intention of winning the jackpot, and I won a million fucking dollars. Although my intention was to win, MY CHANCES WERE LOW, and thus I am considered lucky. A guy got into a shootout with a cop. He hid behind a rock and got a quick glimpse of the cop's location and ducked for cover once again. He shot at him with a general idea of where his location was but he wasn't really aiming. He hit him right between the eyes on his first try. The intention to finish is there, he had a general idea where he was, but his chances of hitting him were still low and thus he is lucky.
At a certain point, once you take good measures to increase the chances of your punch, it isn't considered lucky. So the issue isn't really black and white, and I don't know where to put the line down and say "Oh, this one was lucky and that one wasn't". But what I do know is Johnny Hendricks is one lucky ass motherfucker....
via i.chzbgr.com (Would you consider this punch lucky?)