Wanna get "Psycho?"
This Saturday (Oct. 13, 2012), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will ends its four-week string of fight cards with a bang, heading back down to the HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, for UFC 153.
In the main event of the evening, UFC Middleweight Champion and part-time "The One," Anderson Silva, heads back up to the Light Heavyweight division for the first time in three years, with tough-as-nails veteran Stephan Bonnar looking to send him back to 185 pounds with his tail between his legs.
In addition, the freshly-repaired Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira will attempt to once again wow his countrymen against American bruiser Dave Herman, while blue-chipper Erick Silva takes the next step up the Welterweight ladder as he faces Jon Fitch.
It's set to be a crazy night of fights, one with both excitement and profit lurking under the surface.
Follow me for a closer look at the odds behind UFC 153: "Silva vs. Bonnar."
UFC 153 Odds For The Under Card:
Diego Brandao (-170) vs. Joey Gambino (+140)
Reza Madadi (-230) vs. Cristiano Marcello (+170)
Sergio Moraes (-245) vs. Renee Forte (+185)
Luis Cane (-150) vs. Chris Camozzi (+120)
Rony Jason (-275) vs. Sam Sicilia (+205)
Gleison Tibau (-155) vs. Francisco Drinaldo (+125)
Thoughts: There are many close mixed martial arts (MMA) match ups with many of looming questions. Fun! I have to admit, this isn’t the card to splurge on, but your best bets here are probably Moraes, Sicilia and Drinaldo.
The line (-245) is a bit steep, but I’m racking my brain trying to figure out what conceivable advantage Forte has in this fight and coming up blank. He’s a decent grappler with poor striking, while Moraes is an amazing grappler with poor striking. I’ll be impressed if Forte even lasts a round against "Serginho;" therefore, put money down on Moraes either straight-up or in a parlay, as he’s the safest bet on the card besides Silva.
As much as I like watching Jason fight and as piss-poor as Sicilia’s striking technique is, this just doesn’t strike me as a good match up for the Brazilian. He doesn’t have the wrestling to get Sicilia down or the slickness on the feet to take advantage of his massively-telegraphed punching. His ground game is lethal enough for me to recommend making only a small bet on Sicilia, though, and no bet if he gets to less than +180.
I’m worried that Drinaldo’s time at middleweight may have a detrimental effect on his cardio, having not made his enormous cut in a while, but he’s sufficiently better than Tibau for a bet on him to be profitable. His sprawl is unbelievable and he’s one of the few men in the division capable of outmuscling Gleison, not to mention the fact that his striking, while still needing some work, is superior to the American Top Team representative.
Play "Massaranduba" straight-up or in a parlay, but be aware of the cardio question and adjust the amount accordingly.
UFC 153 Odds For The Main Card:
Anderson Silva (-1350) vs. Stephan Bonnar (+800)
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (-285) vs. Dave Herman (+225)
Erick Silva (-140) vs. Jon Fitch (+110)
Glover Teixeira (-360) vs. Fabio Maldonado (+290)
Phil Davis (-400) vs. Wagner Prado (+300)
Demian Maia (-155) vs. Rick Story (+125)
Thoughts: Honestly, this may sound like a cop-out, but I don’t like any of the lines here. The main event is a colossal mismatch, I have concerns about Nogueira’s ring rust and wear-and-tear and Fitch isn’t enough of an underdog to make up for the fact that he hasn’t fought since getting blasted in December.
In addition, Teixeira’s too big a favorite and Maldonado’s chances too slim, while Prado’s wrestling is still a question mark, and Maia’s been inconsistent. The only possible bet I can see is a pittance on Prado. It’d be better to just enjoy the main card and work with the guys I mentioned on the under card.
UFC 153 Best Bets:
- Single Bet: Sam Sicilia -- Bet $25 to make $51.25
- Single Bet: Francisco Drinaldo -- Bet $32 to make $40
- Parlay: Sergio Moraes and Sam Sicilia -- Bet $20 to make $66
Contenders, prospects and a clash between an unstoppable force and an immovable object ... sounds like a good night to me.
See you Saturday, Maniacs.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver live UFC 153: "Silva vs. Bonnar" results this Saturday night, which is as good a place as any to talk about all the action inside the Octagon, as well as what you've got riding on the sportsbook.