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UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller Preview/Predictions Main Card

UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller Preview/Predictions Main Card:

Hello Maniacs, here's part 2 of my predictions and a breakdown of the fighters. This has some cool fights on it and I know I'll be watching!

A link to part one.

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Preliminary Card: *Only Official Since Yesterday

Lightweight bout: Fabrício Camoes vs. Tom Hayden

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Background: Camoes is 13-6-1 and Hayden is 8-0

-Fabricio Camoes - 33 years old - 5'10" - Reach: 70" (Ranked 84th Lightweight [Tapology])
-Camoes was born in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil and made his debut in 1997. He had a rough start to his career, going 4-5 in his first 9 fights, including a loss to Anderson Silva. He then went on a terror, going on an 8 fight unbeaten streak (7-0-1) including a draw against UFC vet Caol Uno at UFC 106. 76% of his wins are by finish: 6 by submission and 4 by KO/TKO, including a head kick KO of UFC vet Steve Lopez. He had run in the UFC briefly in 2009/2010, going 0-1-1. He was released after being rear naked choked by Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 111. He most recently defeated TUF winner Efrain Escudero by unanimous decision at Tachi Palace Fights 9 in May of 2011. He is a 3rd degree black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBJdLWjm4Kk

-Tommy Hayden - 25 years old - 5'9" - Reach: ?????
-Hayden was born in Cincinnati, Ohio and made his pro debut in 2008. He is undefeated with all wins coming within the final bell: 2 TKO's, 5 submissions, and 1 DQ victory. His opponents haven't been very stellar, and if you looked at the main page article previewing part one of the prelims he says the same thing I am. Can't find much of anything on him. When I wrote my preview of the prelims the other day this fight wasn't formally announced, instead it was a rumor started by Hayden himself through his Facebook page. He also has a 10-0 amateur record.

My Pick: Comoes all day here. Hayden is trained by Jorge Gurgel, a very good BJJ instructor, but Hayden isn't going to have the grappling chops of Fabricio and doesn't have the experience, not by a long shot. Taking a fight on a week notice to get into the UFC is fine, just don't expect to win your fight. Camoes by submission in the second round.

Main card:

Heavyweight bout: Pat Barry vs. Christian Morecraft

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Background: Barry is 6-4 and Morecraft is 7-2

-Pat Barry - 32 years old - 5'11" - Reach: 74.5" (Ranked 23rd Heavyweight)
-Barry was born in New Orleans, Louisiana and made his pro MMA debut in 2008. Pat Barry is popular but inconstant heavyweight, heavily criticized for a lack of killer instinct and a fear of going to the ground. 3 of his 4 losses have come via submission. He is a good finisher, with all but one of his victories coming by KO/TKO (83%). Barry's base is his kickboxing, he's competed in K-1, WCL, and other kickboxing organizations. His record as a kick boxer is 18-6-1 with 9 KO's. All but one of his losses came via decision, the other by cut. He has extremely strong leg kicks and lot of punching power. He's been in the UFC since 2008, but is only 3-4 in the organization. He is currently on a two fight losing streaking after being knocked out by Cheick Kongo and being submitted by Stefan Struve.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uO3sWPo6uuw
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eV_zUcDi8EA

-Christian Morecraft - 25 years old - 6'6" - Reach: 81" (Ranked 39th Heavyweight [Tapology])
-Morecraft was born in Washington, D.C. and made his debut in 2008. He opened his career with 6 straight victories, all on smaller shows in Massachusetts. He has never been to a decision, and holds 4 victories by submission and 3 by KO/TKO. His biggest win is over ousted UFC vet Sean McCorkle at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Davis. He's only 1-2 in the UFC, with losses to Stefan Struve and Matt Mitrione. Both have been KO's. Morecraft is well rounded, has shown good submissions, decent standup and good ground and pound. He needs this fight badly to move up the latter.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F_gxOZjMi4

My Pick: Morecraft is the more complete fighter, with a decent all around game. Barry is what Joe Rogan would call a specialist: he's a dangerous kick boxer. Morecraft will have the reach, but won't have nearly the striking game of Barry. Morecraft was unable to secure the takedown consistently against Matt Mitrione during their fight at UFC Live, and with Barry training with Team Deathclutch, where some of the best heavyweight wrestlers in the sport are located, I'm expecting a vastly improved level of takedown defense from Barry, maybe even a rise in wrestling ability overall. Barry is going to keep this fight standing, landing leg kicks until Morecraft is ready to lie down. Then Barry is going KO Morecraft in the third round.

Bantamweight bout: Mike Easton vs. Jared Papazian

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Background: Easton is 11-1 and Papazian is 14-6

-Mike Easton - 27 years old - 5'5" - Reach: 70"
-Easton was born in Washington, D.C., and made his pro debut in 2003. He is a decent finisher for a bantamweight, with 4 KO/TKOs and 2 submission for a ratio of 54%. His other five victories are by decision. He opened his career going 5-0, before falling to Brazilian journeymen Reynaldo Duarte by TKO due to injury back in 2007. He didn't return to the cage for seven months, debuting in the Ultimate Warrior Challenge promotion. He went 5-0 in UWC, including winning the promotions Bantamweight title, and defending it twice. One however was a controversial split decision win that actually won "Robbery of the Year" over DREAM, Bellator and WEC vet Chase Beebe. Easton also holds a victory over TUF contestant Josh Ferguson and and TUF winner John Dodson. He made his UFC debut in October after not competing for almost two years. He won his fight by TKO in the 2nd. Easton is a black belt in both Taekwondo and BJJ.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sG3plLhxT1I

-Jared Papazian - 23 years old - 5'8" - Reach: ????
-Papazian was born in California and made his pro debut in 2008 at the age of 20. He had a rough start to his career, going 6-5-0 (1 NC) in his first 12 fights. Since then he's gone 8-1, his only loss in that time being to KOTC, Bellator vet Jimmie Rivera. Papazian has spent jumped around on the regional circuit. He is a one time BAMMA vet and spent his last four fights in the King of the Cage. This will be his UFC debut. He has a 43% finishing ratio with 5 TKOs and 1 submission. He has been submitted 4 times in his career, but his last submission loss was in early 2010. He is a former King of the Cage bantamweight champion and vacated his title to fight in the UFC.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N80zF2PtMUk

My Pick: Papazian is young. And there is footage of him online and he looks competent but not spectacular. I think the Octagon jitters will play a big role in this fight. He has the goods to make it into the UFC, but I'm unsure of how much success he's going to have. Easton has fought mostly on smaller stages save his UFC debut in October, but his been dominate in his fights. I expect Eastons skill set to be too much of Papazian and for Easton to win by decision or a 3rd round TKO.

Co Main Event:
Welterweight bout: Duane Ludwig vs. Josh Neer

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Background: Ludwig is 21-11 and Neer is 32-10-1

- Duane Ludwig - 33 years old - 5'10" - Reach: 70" (Ranked 43rd Welterweight [Tapology])
-Ludwig was born in Denver, Colorado and made his pro MMA debut in 2000. He has been training in Muay Thai for 18 years and is easily one of the best strikers in the welterweight division. Even during his MMA career Ludwig as fought in pro Kickboxing bouts including K-1 and WKA amassing a 49-7-1 pro kickboxing record, with multiple titles including winning a K-1 title in 2002. His last kickboxing bout was in 2006. Ludwig has a 76% finishing ratio with 10 KO/TKO's and 6 submission victories. He has been in and out of the UFC since 2003, with an overall record of 4-2 in the promotion. During his career he's fought in Strikeforce, Ring of Fire and King of the Cage, along with a few other smaller promotions. He has victories over Jens Pulver, Genki Sudo, Yves Edwards, and Amir Sadollah. He also has losses to BJ Penn, Tyson Griffin, Paul Daley, Takanori Gomi and Jim Miller. He is 4-3 in his last 7 fights and is currently riding a two fight win streak.
Youtube Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E-xc1zqx4go

-Josh Neer - 28 years old - 5'11" - Reach: 72" (Ranked 57th Welterweight [Tapology])
-Neer was born in Des Moines, Iowa and made his pro debut in 2003. Neer likes to finish his fights. He has 17 wins by KO/TKO and 11 by submission for a finishing ratio of 88% and in 43 professional fights, has been to decision a total of 10 times. Neer has had mixed success in the UFC, going 5-6 in the promotion. He, like his opponent Ludwig has fought some very good names in his career at both lightweight and welterweight. He has wins over Joe Stevenson, Melvin Guillard and Mac Danzig. However, he has losses to both Nick and Nate Diaz, Kurt Pellegrino, Eddie Alvarez and Gleison Tibau. He is a former Shark Fights Interim Welterweight Champ, a two time Fight of the Night winner and is riding a five fight win streak, 6-1 in his last 7.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wC4RQ5Xd6eY

My Pick: Duane Ludwig holds the record for the fastest KO in UFC history, unofficially. He is a very good Muay Thai striker and I believe he holds the advantage over Neer in the stand up while Neer will likely use his superior grappling to control the fight. Neer isn't going to be dominated in the striking department, but it would probably be smarter for him to take the fight down. I expect Neer to stand long enough to set up a takedown, work in ground and pound and win by submission in the 2nd or win a unanimous decision.

Main Event:

Lightweight bout: Melvin Guillard vs. Jim Miller

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Background: Guillard is 29-9-2 (1 NC) and Miller is 20-3Current
Betting odds: -165 Miller, +145 Guillard (Subject to Change)

-Melvin Guillard - 28 years old - 5'9" - Reach: 71" (Ranked 15th Lightweight)
-Guillard was born New Orleans, Louisiana and made his pro debut in 2002. He opened his career with 11 wins in under a year. He is a good finisher, with a 72% finishing ratio with 19 KO/TKO wins and 2 submission wins, in addition, he has 2 Knockout of the Night awards. Melvin is a truly up and down fighter. Every time he seems to get start moving up in rankings, with impressive wins he somehow fails to follow up, most likely due to becoming cocky, his former coach, Greg Jackson, once said that Melvin lost his fight with Joe Lauzon because he: "fell in love with his punching power." Though only 28 years old he 41 career fights, far more than the average UFC fighter, he has wins over Dennis Siver, Evan Dunham, and Marcus Davis, but has losses to Joe Stevenson, Nate Diaz and Rich Clementi. He was riding a five fight win streak going into his loss against Lauzon at UFC 136. Guillard is 8-2 in his last 10 fights. He is a brown belt in judo and a blue belt in BJJ and is a boxing based striker.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7J8EZfVAGY

-Jim Miller - 28 years old - 5'8" - Reach: 71" - (Ranked 7th Lightweight)
-Miller was born in New Jersey and made his pro debut in 2005. His only losses are to Frankie Edgar, Gray Maynard and Ben Henderson, ranked 1, 3, and 4th in the world: all those losses are by decision. He was a high school wrestler and wrestled and Virginia Tech University for one year before leaving to become a professional fighter. He has a good finishing ratio of 70% with 11 submission victories and 3 KO/TKOs. He is a two time Submission of the Night winner and has one time Fight of the Night award. Miller holds victories over Matt Wiman, Charles Oliveira, and Kamal Shalorus. He is 9-2 in the UFC. He is a black belt in BJJ and is also 8-2 in his last 10 fights. He is also the younger brother of UFC fighter Dan Miller.
Youtube link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Bic-kNQe4w

My Pick:
Miller is a good striker. Guillard is a the much better, more powerful striker. Guillard is a so-so to ok grappler. Miller is an outstanding grappler. Miller is more consistent, whereas Guillard has flashes of brilliance followed by surprising losses and a positive cocaine test. I believe that Guillard has fought bigger names, but isn't always successful against them. Guillard has trouble with fighters who are excellent BJJ stylists, which Miller is among the best in the lightweight division. Guillard will look to keep this fight standing, looking for the KO. Miller will use his own striking to set up a takedown and look for a submission. Guillard is going to win the first round, fade in the 2nd, and get caught in the 3rd before being submitted by Miller. Miller wins by submission.

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