I'm not sure about the rest of you, but the first two events have been pretty tough to call, and this weekends event (UFC 131) isn't looking much easier. As I'm looking at the matchups, and trying to come up with an "edge" that can carry me to the top, i've come to the obvious conclusion that picking the winners is first and foremost. It doesn't matter if you pick the correct round, or method of victory...if you ain't got the winner, you ain't got dick. Having said that, aside from picking the winners, you really need to nail the rounds, and methods of victory if you want to lurk in the top 10. As a big believer in using statistics to determine trends, the stat geek in me has reared its ugly head. Many of you will simply see this as a confirmation of what you've already known,,,,,,,,but having gone thru the excercise, I figured I should share with those that are interested. If you hate stats, your welcome to move on......but if you're a stat geek like me, here's what I found..........
For my sample size, I went back to UFC 75, which gives us a total of 55 events. I didn't include any of the TUF Finales or UFC Fight Nights, so it's purely the PPV's up thru UFC 130. Originally, I was looking to determine what percentage of fights end in a judges decision, versus a stoppage of any sort (KO, TKO, SUB or TAP). In looking a little deeper, it's reasonable to assume that the % of stoppages will increase as you move into the higher weight classes. I'm sure many of you are thinking "no shit sherlock", but I always like to see the real stats before I believe it. Here's what I came up with:
Total # of Fights - 587
Total # of Decisions - 261 (44.46%)
Total # of Stoppages - 326 (55.54%)
I always assumed that about 50% of all fights go to a decision, so my assumption wasn't too far from correct. Now here's the breakdown by weightclass.......For Featherweight & Bantamweight, i just massaged those numbers into the Lightweight figure, as we've only had a handful of them since the WEC merger.
Total # of LW Fights - 154
Total # of LW Decisions - 83 (53.90%)
Total # of LW Stoppages - 71 (46.10%)
Total # of WW Fights - 150
Total # of WW Decisions - 77 (51.33%)
Total # of WW Stoppages - 73 (48.67%)
Total # of MW Fights - 104
Total # of MW Decisions - 41 (39.42%)
Total # of MW Stoppages - 63 (60.58%)
Total # of LHW Fights - 106
Total # of LHW Decisions - 41 (38.68%)
Total # of LHW Stoppages - 65 (61.32%)
Total # of HW Fights - 73
Total # of HW Decisions - 19 (26.03%)
Total # of HW Stoppages - 54 (73.97)
For me, these numbers pretty much confirm what i've always suspected......the little guys can go for days, and the bigger they are, the harder they fall. Unfortunately these numbers don't mean shit when trying to determine a winner between Munoz and Maia.....but maybe they'll help in the long haul, as it's still anyone's game. Enjoy the fights on Saturday!!