Former Sengoku 185-pound champion Jorge Santiago (23-8) will make his long-awaited return to the Octagon when he takes on Brian Stann (10-3) at UFC 130: "Edgar vs. Maynard III" at the MGM Grand Garden Arena on May 28 in Las Vegas, Nevada.
And despite winning 11 of his last 12 contests (including 10 finishes), the oddsmakers aren't impressed.
That might explain why the American Top Team middleweight is a +100 underdog on two out of the three betting lines against Stann, who's sitting pretty as the -120 favorite.
Five years in mixed martial arts is damn-near ancient history, but highlight reels notwithstanding, it doesn't help that "The All American" recently pasted Leben in their UFC 125 brawl earlier this year.
And oddsmakers love the numbers -- including MMA math. But are they calling it like they see it? Or playing it safe? Take a look at how these two middleweights stack up and decide for yourself.
185 lbs.: Jorge Santiago (23-8) vs. Brian "All American" Stann (10-3)
Backgrounds (last five fights):
Notable wins: Avenged his defeat to Mamed Khalidov, finished Kazuo Masaki in a pair of bouts, flattened Kazuhiro Nakamura.
Notable losses: Ugly technical knockout loss to the aforementioned Khalidov.
Strengths: Secured a finish in 21 of 23 victories, full gas tank, experienced, great camp.
Weaknesses: Hasn't been fighting elite competition, memories of 2006 have yet to be erased.
Notable wins: Choked out Mike Massenzio, crushed Chris Leben.
Notable losses: Booted from the light heavyweight division by Phil Davis.
Strengths: Heavy hands, ton of heart, well-rounded and strong for his weight class.
Weaknesses: Pundits not sold on his middleweight shelf life, tendency to play to his opponent's strengths.
Jorge Santiago (+100) vs. Brian Stann (-120) at UFC 130. Who ya' got and why?